2023 Season – Game 4 – Dolphins @ Bills

It’s only the 4th week of the NFL season, but this matchup against our division rival Buffalo Bills is quite an interesting matchup. The Bills, despite having a 2-1 record have allowed and NFL 2nd best 11.7 PPG. On the flip side, the Miami Dolphins offense have scored an NFL leading 43.3 PPG, mostly due to the 70 point output last week against the Denver Broncos. What makes this matchup so fascinating to me, the Dolphins defense was supposed to be an improved unit, perhaps even a top unit, while the Bills were expected to take a step back after losing LB Tremaine Edmunds in FA to the Chicago Bears. So far, the Bills are just a hair behind the Cleveland Browns who have allowed an NFL low 10.7 PPG, while the Vic Fangio Dolphins unit has allowed 23.7 PPG good for a below average 20th in the NFL. So something has to give here, with the NFL best offense against very close to the best NFL defense. Oh, by the way, the Bills are 2nd in the NFL in scoring, right behind our Dolphins at 30.3 PPG. Dolphins fans who are looking at this game as an easy Dolphins win simply aren’t looking at this game realistically. The last 3 meetings have been decided by 3 points or less.

One of the most surprising changes in the Buffalo Bills offense is the return of their rushing attack. We all know how dangerous QB Josh Allen is rushing the football, but last year’s 2nd RD pick, James Cook has 267 yards, while QB Josh Allen has just 89 yards rushing. Perhaps even more of a turnaround, the Dolphins rushing attack has been even more impressive, no doubt mostly due to the offensive output against the Broncos last week. While the Bills have 448 yards rushing, the Dolphins have 565 yards rushing, and the 15 lbs of muscle that Raheem Mostert added are paying dividends, as Mostert has 240 yards rushing and an eye opening 6 TD’s. The debut of rookie De’Von Achane was off the charts, 208 yards on just 19 carries for an absurd 10.9 YPC. Passing is not quite as even. Josh Allen has a pedestrian 90.3 passer rating, in large part due to his 5 TD’s and 4 INT’s with 728 yards passing. On the flip side, QB Tua Tagovailoa has a 121.9 QBR with 8 TD’s and only 2 INT’s and 1024 yards passing.

As you all know, I just hate when our players get caught in the hype machine, and our young 3rd year LB Jaelan Phillips has been absolutely crushed by it. It appears as if Jaelan Phillps will miss the Buffalo game, and it looks likely that C Connor Williams may also miss this contest with a groin injury. Williams still has a chance to play, and although LT Terron Armstead only logged a limited practice yesterday, he’s likely to play. Unfortunately, this is the wrong week to have anyone on this O-line out, especially considering how well this unit has performed. Good news is WR Jaylen Waddle has been cleared from concussion protocol and got in a full practice yesterday. If Connor Williams can’t go, Liam Eichenberg will likely play C, and while his snaps are more accurate than his predecessor Connor Williams, we all know his blocking hasn’t been up to snuff. Like I said, bad week to make O-line substitutions.

While the Dolphins were pouring it on with a record breaking 10 offensive TD’s last week, The Bills defense pounded Commanders QB Sam Howell all day long to the tune of 9 sacks, 4 INT’s and 1 forced fumble and fumble recovery. Truth is, if we’re being honest, I know I expected a much better defense here in Miami with Vic Fangio. It’s also very early in the season, we haven’t yet completed a 1/4 of the season and it can definitely take time for a scheme to take hold. It’s not that the defense has been awful, it just hasn’t been better than last year, which in and of itself is a disappointment. The Bills have 12 sacks, our defense has 8, not a huge disparity, and much like our offensive numbers are skewed by last weeks Broncos game, the Bills are defensive numbers are aided by their dominant game against the Commanders.

To be clear, it’s still very possible that C Connor Williams plays, he did log a limited practice yesterday, so I wouldn’t rule him out. It’s just that you don’t want to exacerbate an injury any further and lose that player for an extended period of time, but if he can go, as I previously mentioned, this is not the week for an O-line substitution. For some bad news, both WR’s River Cracraft (shoulder) and Erik Ezukanma (neck) both did not practice, but I remind you that Jaylen Waddle will be suiting up. This means opportunities for Berrios who has already been wonderful, and Robbie Chosen who caught his first TD last week in a Dolphins uniform. Our old friend AVG, Andrew Van Ginkel has played so well this season, and surely has had a much larger role in this defense, both week 1 where he played inside, and then of course last week because of Jaelan Phillps injury. I would like to point out something that concerns me, our 2 top tacklers thus far this season are DB’s. Safeties Jevon Holland (33), and DeShon Elliott (22) are tops, and not too far behind are CB’s Kader Kohou (16) and Xavien Howard (15). I would think this is not a good trend, and hopefully once the Fangio defensive scheme takes hold, this will even out.

I really don’t know what to expect, although I would be surprised if this was an offensive shootout. I feel like these divisional games are much more measured and careful, and although last year’s playoff game was a 34-31 shootout of sorts, I think the scores will be lower. There’s a lot on the line for such an early season matchup, but the Bills don’t want the Dolphins to have a 2 game advantage on them, and the Dolphins would like nothing more to potentially be the only undefeated team in the NFL and also hold a 2 game edge on their division rival Bills, who have won the division each of the last 3 seasons. I expect us to try and run the ball often, and don’t expect another 300 + yards rushing for the Dolphins. Josh Allen loves playing against us, he owns us, he’s 9-2, but more importantly, 6-0 at home in Buffalo. For perspective, I’ll remind you that our last 3 games against the Bills have been decided by 3 points or less (34-31), (32-29), and a Dolphins victory (21-19). All I know is this is MUST WATCH TV!

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1,136 Responses to 2023 Season – Game 4 – Dolphins @ Bills

  1. bailbondmike says:

    If Eich is the best backup center we have, then we need to poach one off someone else’s practice squad. Can’t do any worse.

  2. manitobafinfan says:

    Dick Butkus has died

  3. Capt. Stubbs says:

    Hopefully tonight’s game will be entertaining and not a snooze fest

    • manitobafinfan says:

      I have a preseason hockey game I can flip to if it is … or I could walk downstairs and watch both I guess …. Oh the dilemma of being lazy 🤔

  4. manitobafinfan says:

    Reminder all Fantasy Players .. BYES Start this week

  5. son of a son of a shula says:

    RIP Dick Butkus
    I think he was my very first favorite player followed soon by Larry Csonka 
    He was a badass
    51 🙏👍💪

  6. son of a son of a shula says:

    Prime is fucked
    I have to press enter seventeen times to get to the broadcast 
    All the money they pay for NFL and it’s a cluster fuck. Oy

  7. manitobafinfan says:

    Yo .. I just heard back from the transport company .. telling me 63.00 each (return trip) .. seems like a helluva jump from past years …. I need some input please … that’s 126.00 a couple …

    Do I book it or tell ‘em to pound salt ?

  8. Ken says:

    Someone tell the Bears they are supposed to suck 

  9. Ken says:

    Should have played DJ Moore 🤬

  10. son of a son of a shula says:

    We can fit one more into the vehicle we have with an Orange pass but have another vehicle available that can park in one of the further away lots for around 50 bucks that would get six more there. How many left?

  11. son of a son of a shula says:

    Toba we just need one more vehicle and everyone gets there,  2 passes in the “free” lots will cost a hundred bucks that’s a lot different nom saying. 

  12. Capt. Stubbs says:

    I’m pretty sure we can bring 2. We’re taking my buddies work car. Not sure what is
    I’ll check

    • son of a son of a shula says:

      We’re gonna be in Jim’s big ass truck it’s huge it can fit 7-8 really especially if there are couples. Then we have a CRV that’ll hold 5. We should be able to handle everyone. Don’t get the bus 🖕

  13. manitobafinfan says:

    This how it was presented/quoted..

    I feel like I’m letting everyone one down 😕

    Std Grat 20.000% $90.00
    Per Pass 9 x 50.00 $450.00
    Florida Tax 6.000% $27.00
    Reservation Total: $567.00
    Payments/Deposits: $0.00
    Authorizations: $0.00
    Total Due: $567.00

  14. Brian in NY says:

    Toba,

    Try not to Uber: it will be fine going to the game, but you’ll get hit with the escalator price after the game. 

  15. Brian in NY says:

    Toba,

    I’m not going, but you’re not letting anyone down. The economy in the US is fucked right now , and we are all feeling it every time we need to pay for anything.

  16. manitobafinfan says:

    Alrighty we are putting our trust in Son ..

  17. manitobafinfan says:

    I also wanted everyone to be able to enjoy the game with some bevies .. not to have to half ass it cause drivers needed

  18. manitobafinfan says:

    Thanks Y’all ….

  19. Capt. Stubbs says:

    I never looked at you like that! Now you have double D’s. I’m looking now lol

  20. Tim Knight says:

    Bidenomics is when the focus is on sociology and people’s feelings and not real economics and individual freedom. The government has no business being involved with individual freedom under the law of the land. It’s already on the books in the constitution. Stop manipulating it for specific agendas. Leave us alone, all of us.

  21. Tim Knight says:

    Son is being awesome to y’all.🙂

    • son of a son of a shula says:

      You need to come down and feel my awesomeness, you’d love everyone and they’d love you too these are great people 

      • Tim Knight says:

        I know I’ve met a bunch of the mob just not in Florida yet. I have a trust level because I know some of them personally. So their word carries weight about others for me.🙂

    • Brian in NY says:

      Son is one of the coolest guys you’ll ever meet- great family as well

  22. Capt. Stubbs says:

    You just want to ride with son. I see your kind a mile away lol

  23. Brian in NY says:

    Ken,

    Do NOT look at Moore’s stats tomorrow …

  24. Rockphin says:

    son of a son of a shula says:
    October 5, 2023 at 10:31 pm

    You need to come down and feel my awesomeness, you’d love everyone and they’d love you too these are great people

    Be careful Tim, as a recipient of Son’s awesomeness in the past, I can testify that it is painful.

  25. Mike E. says:

    So what’s happening? Do we really have transportation for everyone to the game and back on Sunday?

  26. bailbondmike says:

    Guess I won’t get to see the game this weekend. Got Saints/Pats and Texans/Falcons.

    https://fansided.com/posts/nfl-coverage-map-tv-schedule-week-5-2023

  27. bailbondmike says:

    Cool blast coming. Phelon going to be moose hunting in a tropical storm.

  28. mf13ss says:

  29. Capt. Stubbs says:

    Mike E, we can bring 2 in as well

  30. Ken says:

    Why did we just trade for Chase Claypool? Can he play LB?

  31. Rockphin says:

    Toba, sorry I missed your text last night. I responded this morning, but I see I was late. It seems to have been decided. We will figure it out!

  32. bailbondmike says:

    Claypool huh. He was a stud his first 2 seasons. Big physical threat. Hampered by injuries his 3rd year and never caught on in Chicago for some reason. If anyone can get him back to being a stud is Welker.

    His signing tells me it is going to be a while for Cracraft.

  33. bailbondmike says:

    M13 is right. Spoiled brat but he should be humbled in a WR room with Hill and Waddle. Hopefully, if not, his career will be close to over.

  34. bailbondmike says:

    We basically lose nothing in the trade. Swap of late picks in 2025.

  35. bailbondmike says:

    Would rather see a trade for a backup center. If Uluave can’t beat out Eich, he needs to go also.

  36. bailbondmike says:

    If they can get him back to playing like this, look out. Welker and MM have their work cut out.

  37. naplesfan2010 says:

    He’s 6.4 238 and maybe we need a big WR in the RZ and a possession post up guy.

  38. naplesfan2010 says:

    He can snatch the ball in traffic. Got 4 TDs in a game for Steelers and over a thousand in a yr for Notre Dame.

  39. Mike E. says:

    This trade has to make you think Ezukanma and Cracraft might be out either multiple weeks, or the rest of the season

  40. bailbondmike says:

    Forget that video. This one shows some amazing catches and his ability to win 50/50 balls.

  41. The Flying Pig says:

    Claypiil was kind of notably lazy and took plays off for Chicago

    Maybe he needs a change of scenery

  42. naplesfan2010 says:

    Claypool also has a bunch rushes and rush TDs. There’s your Deebo pkg.

  43. mf13ss says:

    • pheloniusphish says:

      They shouldn’t be struggling to buy in. They weren’t very good last year, so they have no laurels to rest on.

    • Rockphin says:

      so, nothing in this article indicates that there is a problem with the players not buying in. It just points out that the player are FAILING, not that they are believing. Omar was and always will be a hack. I was so happy when he left SS. I was pissed when he “joined” Poupart at SI.

  44. Rhino says:

    On Chase Claypool:

    Notre Dame guys usually aren’t whiney bitches, but it seems Claypool’s initial impact makes him think he is a WR #1 and complains if he is not used that way. As stated up thread, if he acts that way with Hill and Waddle in the room then he’s clearly delusional. That said …

    Coming out of college his size and speed combo was rare (6’4″, 238 lbs, 4.42 40) … thus being taken in 2nd round.

    My first, gut, thought was much like MF13 … ‘convert’ to TE … or perhaps simply using him like a seam TE.

  45. bailbondmike says:

    Phelonius shot his moose the first day of the hunt and has been laying around camp since.
    ————–
    Outstanding!

  46. Rockphin says:

    This is NOT a problem with player not buying in. It is a problem with Fangio.

    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article279113404.html

    Everyone wanted to tout how HALF his defenses were in the top 10 over the years. Guess what? The OTHER HALF WERE BOTTOM 10 defenses!

    This is not on the players, it is a scheme problem.

    • Rockphin says:

      I pointed out when he was hired that teams would kill us with 1000 paper cuts. Bend bend bend bend bend all the way to the endzone.

  47. Rhino says:

    Claypool had those first 2 years with Big Ben … after that he’s been playing (attempting to play) with newbies.

    Hopefully the WR room AND catching balls from Tua will get him back on track.

    It just occurred to me, that perhaps he can be what they HOPED Elijah Higgins would become.

  48. mf13ss says:

    Rhino,

    Yup, you and I are on the same wavelength. First thing I did upon hearing the news about Claypool? I dialed up George Kittle’s metrics… very comparable. Claypool is only more compact, faster, and can jump higher than Kittle.

    We’ll see what happens…

  49. Rhino says:

    about Claypool, to reporters …

    “You guys want me to say it, don’t you? He’s fast,” McDaniel said.

  50. Tim Knight says:

    The cost to bring in Claypool was like both teams buying each other breakfast.😂

  51. mf13ss says:

    I’m seeing some Dolfans on Twitter who don’t think Claypool can block. Well, the below is pretty telling…

  52. mf13ss says:

  53. Rockphin says:

    You guys more interested in talking about the 5th string WR we picked up than our failing D? Ok. He sucks. what’s the next subject?

    • mf13ss says:

      It’s just the latest news to speculate upon. I’m with ya… and I wish we would have traded for Defensive help instead.

    • Brian in NY says:

      Yeah, but he defense has sucked- no need to beat that horse. Hopefully it improves. Claypool gives us depth at a position where we need it right now. Hill and Berrios currently nicked up .

    • Tim Knight says:

      Okay, our defense needs to get their heads out of their Claven’s.🤪

  54. Mike E. says:

    NEW BLOG UP!!!

  55. The Flying Pig says:

    Go FSU

  56. The Flying Pig says:

    M13, In fairness to Dolphins Twitter – you probably won’t see clips like that from his time with the bears

    I also thought he doesn’t really have that in him

    But I think it might be a question of motivation

  57. The Flying Pig says:

    Rock

    I think we will have a good defensive effort tomorrow

    We’ve only had 1 home game so far and we only gave up 13 points (and a kickoff return)

    If we have he same defensive game as the broncos game, then it’s not crazy to think, for now statistically – we will be like 2 different defenses

    A bad road defense
    And a good home defense

    And we you throw in the panthers game, it might give us the push we need to be better defensively late in the year

    The giants Are last in points scored this season with 46 points
    The panthers are 24th with 67

    We are 1st with 150 points

    We have 37 more pts than our next 2 opponents combined

    Thsts also averages of 11.5 and 16.75 vs 37.5 points per game

    So our defense really doesn’t have to be top tier for now
    But these two games give us a great chance to get ahead early and play downhill which I think will help build confidence in Fangios defense

    I’m thinking few weeks from now we will be 5-1 with a great offense and a defense that plays well at home

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