Finsmob Unleashed

There will be lots of decisions that both GM Chris Grier and Head Coach Mike McDaniel have to make to kick off the offseason flurry of moves and machinations. The very first one, and one that will impact all of the others is whether to give current QB Tua Tagovailoa a new contract that would keep him in a Miami Dolphins uniform for the next 6 years or more, or just let him play out the 5th year option we’ve already picked up which would pay Tua $23.17M in 2024. It’s easy to say that if we give him a new contract that it will free up much needed cap room to re-sign players here, and sign other players that are not. On the other hand, this could be a very short sighted move if Tua Tagovailoa cannot bring this team to a championship. I’m a fan of Tua Tagovailoa, he’s as likable as they come. He’s not a “Me” guy, always puts the team first. I want him to succeed, I really do, but my doubts about him really spiked seeing how he struggled against better teams, and I mean every single one of them. It’s not just a slight difference either, it’s Jekyll and Hyde different.

The games I’m referring to are the 2 against the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, then the Eagles, Cowboys and then the Ravens. I’m going to throw in the Titans game as well.

In 10 games against the Chargers, Jets, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, Raiders, Giants and Redskins, this is what Tua did . . .

324 pass attempts, 233 completions, 3040 yards, 22 TD’s and 8 INT’s / QBR 113.45

Then in 8 games against the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Cowboys and Titans, this is what Tua did . . .

275 pass attempts, 175 completions, 1833 yards, 8 TD’s and 7 INT’s / QBR 81.98

Those numbers are disturbing. The Cowboys game at home was the only game against the better teams that Tua finished with a good QBR, and that was 98.1, but again, we needed 5 Jason Sanders field goals to win that win as Tua managed only 1 TD. If you watched all the games, the numbers alone don’t even tell the full story. Our passing game was just shut down, and a bunch of these games are before the injuries occurred. For example, we out rushed the Bills in our first meeting 142 – 104. So it wasn’t a case that Tua had do it all. The same goes for the Chiefs game during the regular season. We out rushed KC 117-93. It’s not a matter of complimentary football, the run game was working, but the QB just didn’t get the job done. We easily out rushed the Titans, 158 – 83. Again, the QB just didn’t get the job done, and this game, the defense as well. My point is, some of you would probably think that our offense as a whole played poorly in these games, but clearly, that was not the case. 

One of my favorite players, Christian Wilkins put up a great season in ’22, and we offered him a relatively low contract, and he decided to bet on himself in ’23. Well, if we can use him as an example of playing on the final year of a contract and rising to the occasion, Wilkins did even better in ’23.

2022  17 Games - 98 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FF’s, 1 FR, 16 TFL, 7 QB HITS

2023  17 Games – 65 tackles, 9.0 sacks, 1FF, 2 FR’s,10 TFL, 23 QB HITS

Is it really so crazy to let Tua play on his current contract? I suppose the Dolphins can offer Tua a low contract around $40M per with less guaranteed money, but would he take that? I would think not. We could only hope that he would embrace his opportunity like Christian Wilkins did, bet on himself, and cash in in 2024. It would be the best possible outcome, rather than relying on confidence that he can finally step up in these big games, or that we can save possibly $10-12M in cap space in 2024 if we give him a big contract. Once again, that’s looking at the end of your nose, not out in front. Unless you have absolute conviction that Tua Tagovailoa can bring this team a championship, without everything being ideal, then in my opinion you just can’t do it. They already made a choice by opting in for his 5th year. I fully understand that he answered the “Can he stay healthy?” question by not only playing 17 games, but also a playoff game. On the other hand, if you watched every game, no question Tua played like he needed to play next week every game. Sliding before securing the first down on numerous occasions, and in general just not playing with abandon, like his Buffalo Bills counterpart Josh Allen, or even Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and especially the Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who puts his body in peril almost every play. 

Besides Tua, this team has plenty of other decisions to make. We must shed contracts and open up cap room. We’re nearly $50M over the cap so the roster as it stands can’t remain. I think we’re going to lose some good players, one’s we’d like to keep, like OLB Andrew Van Ginkel. We can’t win a bidding war, and I know fans like to think he wants to stay, and he probably does, but $$$ talks, it always does. Of course we’ll ask the top salary earners for restructures which basically pays them money up front, so no problem there. Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and probably Jalen Ramsey will be the ones to accommodate here. I do believe we may have seen the last of CB Xavien Howard in a Dolphins uniform. Unfortunately, I feel the same for ILB Jerome Baker. LT Terron Armstead is another huge earner, and there are thoughts he may retire. That would be great for our salary cap, not so great for the team, although his availability is in question every year, and every game to be fair. OLB/DE Emmanuel Ogbah is another player who may have played his last game in Miami. His $17.7M contract is not going to happen, despite our hole at OLB with both Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips injured and questionable to play at the start of the ’24 season, along with the potential departure of OLB Andrew Van Ginkel.

Our draft haul is so important, and although meager in quantity, we absolutely need to hit on our first 2 picks. What I mean is not only do these players have to be good down the line, but we must get quality contributions NOW! We’ve been awful, just dreadful lately. RB De’Von Achane was the only bright spot, but already his durability is in question. CB Cam Smith, our first pick in RD2 couldn’t make any contribution at CB, despite a plethora of injuries at that position. Disheartening in the least! 2022 was no better. LB Channing Tindall RD3, WR Erik Ezukanma RD4, and then LB Cameron Goode and QB Skylar Thompson in RD 7. Zero, zilch, nada! That just has to change this season. We’ve traded to acquire lots of talent, never a prudent formula in the NFL. The best organizations like the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, both perennial playoff teams just don’t do that. Now we’re stuck in a cap forced window where we just have a year or so to succeed. We must hit on picks so that when that window closes, we don’t fall to the basement of the AFC and spend a decade digging ourselves out. Just to reiterate something here, if we give Tua a contract now, it would almost certainly be in the neighborhood of $45-50 per year. If he plays so well this year in 2024, and say takes us to the Super Bowl, maybe he gets $55-60M? Well worth the gamble in my opinion. On the other hand, if he plays worse, the team regresses, or he gets injured, while also unfortunate, we’ll have made the right choice.

GO DOLPHINS!!!