Finsmob Unleashed

It’s going to be really, really cold on Saturday, and our Dolphins now have to deal with subzero temperatures, as well as Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs. Not sure if either team has a real advantage in this weather, but no question the Dolphins don’t get the edge they could have had if they locked up their division, and took care of business! Alas, we are where we are, and now we have to hope that somehow we can make an improbable tour through some of the best AFC teams and knock them off one by one in their house. First up is KC, as two 11-6 teams clash. Oddly enough, both teams are disappointed to finish 11-6, although the Chiefs did win the AFC West division, where the next best team was 8-9. Not so, as we all well know in the AFC East. The Dolphins had everything laid out perfectly, a 3 game lead with 5 games to go, Dolphins 10-4, Bills 7-6. We didn’t wash out in December like many past seasons, we went 3-2, but the Bills got hot when it counts and went 4-0 after their BYE week. 

Time to move on from the past, and start looking ahead. The team has no choice, and neither do we. The Chiefs have changed from the usual high flying offense to a middling offensive team. Their defense though has improved significantly and is the more dominant unit, the better unit by far. Regardless of this, we all know Kansas City is dangerous offensively because as long as #15 Patrick Mahomes is on the field, the Chiefs are an offense to be feared. Mahomes brings an 11-3 Playoff record to this Wild Card clash, so while Dolphins fans are hopeful because the Chiefs haven’t been the explosive offense they’ve been in the past, that changes when it counts. Speaking of changing when it counts, our team, and our QB included, have played tight, and the offense hasn’t been remotely as effective in big games. Now some fans have different definitions as to what big games are, but to simplify this, how about we just take the last 3 games of the season where the Buffalo Bills are on a tear, and we need to win every game to hold them off.

Week 14, The Dolphins have a 3 game lead over Buffalo. We host the Titans on Monday Night Football in the friendly confines of Hard Rock Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa throws for 240 yards, zero TD’s, zero INT’s. Not a horrible game, a respectable 90.3 QBR, but not exactly a game that leads the team to an important victory either. The next week we hosted the hapless NY Jets, and we handled the Jets rather easily in this one. Tua was 21-24 for 224 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT’s. Solid game, the defense was stifling, Sanders kicked 3 FG’s and Raheem Mostert rushed for a TD. Christmas Eve day we host the Cowboys, and we eek out a one point victory. Tua does lead the game winning FG drive, but aerial attack isn’t what it was earlier in the season as Tua managed to throw just 1 TD and it’s K Jason Sanders who boots 5 FG’s that carries the team. Then we travel to Baltimore for our every few years smackdown. Winning QB Lamar Jackson throws 5 TD’s, 0 INT’s. Tua Tagovailoa 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s. So that’s December for ya! 5 games, 4 TD’s, 2 INT’s. I’m not handpicking stats, they are what they are. I’m not even including the earlier season games against winning teams like the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, if I did, it would be uglier, you can trust me. There’s no false narrative, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense do not play well against better competition.

The good thing is, as long as he’s still playing, he can change that. He has a fantastic opportunity to turn all that around by playing a great game and leading his team to victory against the Chiefs in frigid conditions. Believe me, he needs this, the team needs this. Perhaps it’s a foregone conclusion that Tua is going to get paid $50M per year, but winning a playoff game or two would go a long way towards earning it. Our defense is a shocking, yes shocking mess right now. I’ve never seen a team more decimated and ravaged by injury. It’s not enough that 3 of four LB’s went down with season ending injuries, Jaelan Phillips (Achilles), Bradley Chubb (ACL tear), and Jerome Baker (Dislocated wrist, MCL) who managed to return for the Bills game and played his heart out. Then add in the 2nd string LB Andrew Van Ginkel and then 3rd string LB Cameron Goode (Ruptured patella) so the Dolphins are left with 2nd string ILB Duke Riley and OLB’s Melvin Ingram and Emmanuel Ogbah. The Dolphins have signed OLB’s Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin and they will absolutely see a fair amount of action, because neither Ogbah or Ingram are truly in playing shape, neither of them have been playing. At ILB, Calvin Munson and Channing Tindall will likely play next to Duke Riley, unless we activate ILB Malik Reed from the practice squad who was also recently signed. Let’s be honest, if you don’t think the Chiefs watched the Bills torch our LB’s last week and aren’t salivating at the prospects of TE Travis Kelce and RB Isiah Pacheco having record breaking days, well . . . .

Even will all of the injuries, I think we can beat the Chiefs. Of course we have numerous players QUESTIONABLE for tomorrow night, WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert, S Jevon Holland, S DeShon Elliott, and unfortunately, CB Xavien Howard remains OUT. I would tend to think that all of our guys will play, as Apollo Creed says, “There is no tomorrow!” If it’s extremely windy, that will make passing more difficult, and we know which of the two QB’s is capable of overcoming the wind with a powerful arm. I’m sure we’ll be running as much as we can, and with our stable of RB’s, I think we have the advantage with Mostert, Achane, Wilson and Brooks compared to the Chiefs Pacheco, Edwards-Helaire and Perine. This will most likely be a trenches game, and we should have 3/5’s of our original line back, although you can say 4/5’s as Eichenberg has been starting at C for a while now. There’s a small chance of snow, which would make the game more interesting to watch for sure. 

This is not where we want to be, but we’re in the playoffs, and we still have a chance to make some noise. It could be a great story if some of the guys we picked up make a big impact on the game. Imagine if Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin each get a couple of sacks and maybe force a turnover or two? Imagine if Malik Reed gets called up from the practice squad and intercepts a pass to TE Travis Kelce to seal a Dolphins victory? Anything can happen, and I’m happy we still have an opportunity even though we choked away the division crown. We can make the most of a poor situation. One game at a time, but have to win it to stay in it. Beat the Chiefs and then we’ll see who we have to play next. At least if we win tomorrow night, the team will have some newfound confidence going forward, and Hard Knocks will much more watchable for all of us.

GO DOLPHINS!!!