Finsmob Unleashed

December football can lead to epic matchups, and we most definitely have one here as the Dolphins travel to Baltimore to play the AFC leading (12-3) Baltimore Ravens. The last time we played the Ravens in Baltimore was that wild 4th quarter comeback win, generated by QB Tua Tagovailoa in which the Dolphins scored 28 4th quarter points to knock off the Ravens 42-38. The Dolphins were down 35-14 to begin the 4th quarter. After the game, pundits and commentators alike made excuses for the Ravens who had an injury riddled secondary. I never hear those same excuses and concessions when we’re playing without 4/5 of our starting Offensive Line, but so be it.

This is a very difficult game to predict, but I don’t think the scoring total goes anywhere near last year’s wild shootout. While the Dolphins defense overall has allowed 20.9 points per game, over the last 8 games the Dolphins defense has been better, allowing only 15.8 points per game. Conversely, the Ravens defense overall is allowing only 16.3 points per game, but over the last 8 games, the Ravens have allowed 18.3 points per game. I think our defense has often been the better unit. While our offense overall has scored 30.9 points per game, we’re scoring 27.8 points per game over the last 8 games. Defense wins championships, and we’re going to need to rely on our defense to beat the Ravens. 

We all know we have injuries littering our roster, but despite playing with 4 different O-line starters, we’re still getting it done. RG Robert Hunt’s status is still up in the air. WR Jaylen Waddle is OUT, which means there will probably be a combination of Robbie Chosen, Chase Claypool, Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios to replace Waddle. Wilson has been getting a fair amount of targets in the last few games, but I think the run game will be the key for us. The Ravens have allowed 1551 yards rushing, while our defense is more stingy at 1362 yards. We’re going to have 4 RB’s active, Mostert, Achane, Wilson and Brooks plus FB Alec Ingold. Like I’ve mentioned on the blog, I don’t really have a good idea of how this game will play out, but I won’t be surprised if it’s a lower scoring game, both teams under 30 points each, and that we run the ball a fair amount, more than we throw.

I’m amazed at how good the O-line has been considering we’re playing without our starting LG Isaiah Wynn (IR), starting OC (Connor Williams (IR), starting RG Robert Hunt (QUESTIONABLE), and starting RT Austin Jackson (QUESTIONABLE). OG Lester Cotton filled in admirably, as did OG Robert Jones who played his best game of the season at RG. Liam Eichenberg has quietly become a very valuable player, perhaps becoming our future OC. What an amazing turnaround for Eichenberg who was drafted as an OT/G, failed at both positions early on in his career, but played better at OG this season as it went on, and now is succeeding at playing C after starter Connor Williams went down for the season in Game 9 against the Chargers. Besides Eichenberg, both swing tackles have been invaluable, Kendall Lamm who played RT with starter Austin Jackson out and Kion Smith who stepped in played LT plenty of times to replace oft injured LT Terron Armstead. To Armstead’s credit, he plays through injuries and has done his best to stay on the field despite his body failing him.

I think we all know this game is a huge one, I look at this as playoff game #1. December, which has annually been a time this team has fallen out of contention is different this year with our Dolphins at 3-1 in December in 2023. The Ravens being the #1 seed in the AFC couldn’t be tougher team to face, especially in their house. QB Lamar Jackson is a game changer, the most talented, most dangerous guy on the field. In my opinion, as he goes, the Ravens go. This is not so with the Miami Dolphins. Tua can have an average day and the Dolphins can win, but the Ravens live and die with Lamar Jackson. Jackson doesn’t turn the ball over much at all with a 1.6 INT %, less than our own careful QB Tua Tagovailoa at 2.0%. Jackson has thrown 19 TD’s against only 7 INT’s. The big difference though is Lamar Jackson who also has 786 yards rushing and 5 rushing TD’s. For reference, Jackson leads the Ravens in rushing yards ahead of their 2nd leading rusher big back Gus Edwards with 694 yards. Edwards is the big goal line threat though with 12 rushing TD’s. It’s a difficult task to control Lamar Jackson, when the pass rush is too aggressive and unsuccessful, he can feast through the air or escape and pick up huge chunks of yards. I think it’s paramount that we stop Gus Edwards. They no longer have their version of De’Von Achane in RB Keaton Mitchell, who tore his ACL and is out for the season. Contain the run game, and when you get your hands on Lamar Jackson, take him down, or else! Easier said than done!

I think all our backs, even seldom used RB Chris Brooks may get some action today. With Waddle OUT, I’m not sure we have a WR that’s going to step up and replace him adequately. The O-line has been run blocking well, and I think that’s how we’re going to roll Sunday afternoon. NFL playoff games are usually close to the vest affairs, I expect that to be the case for this game. Once again, the Ravens run defense isn’t their strength, their pass rush is. Quick passing of course offsets a strong pass rush, and that’s how our offense is designed and how our QB Tua Tagovailoa is most comfortable operating. Make him hold the ball, and we’ve seen some ugly. Running effectively opens up the pass game so we need to run the ball well. I look forward to watching this game, I think we’re up to the task, I don’t feel like this game or team is too much for us. I look forward to our team putting an exclamation on this season by taking down the big and bad Ravens in their house. 

GO DOLPHINS!!!