Finsmob Unleashed

It’s only the 4th week of the NFL season, but this matchup against our division rival Buffalo Bills is quite an interesting matchup. The Bills, despite having a 2-1 record have allowed and NFL 2nd best 11.7 PPG. On the flip side, the Miami Dolphins offense have scored an NFL leading 43.3 PPG, mostly due to the 70 point output last week against the Denver Broncos. What makes this matchup so fascinating to me, the Dolphins defense was supposed to be an improved unit, perhaps even a top unit, while the Bills were expected to take a step back after losing LB Tremaine Edmunds in FA to the Chicago Bears. So far, the Bills are just a hair behind the Cleveland Browns who have allowed an NFL low 10.7 PPG, while the Vic Fangio Dolphins unit has allowed 23.7 PPG good for a below average 20th in the NFL. So something has to give here, with the NFL best offense against very close to the best NFL defense. Oh, by the way, the Bills are 2nd in the NFL in scoring, right behind our Dolphins at 30.3 PPG. Dolphins fans who are looking at this game as an easy Dolphins win simply aren’t looking at this game realistically. The last 3 meetings have been decided by 3 points or less.

One of the most surprising changes in the Buffalo Bills offense is the return of their rushing attack. We all know how dangerous QB Josh Allen is rushing the football, but last year’s 2nd RD pick, James Cook has 267 yards, while QB Josh Allen has just 89 yards rushing. Perhaps even more of a turnaround, the Dolphins rushing attack has been even more impressive, no doubt mostly due to the offensive output against the Broncos last week. While the Bills have 448 yards rushing, the Dolphins have 565 yards rushing, and the 15 lbs of muscle that Raheem Mostert added are paying dividends, as Mostert has 240 yards rushing and an eye opening 6 TD’s. The debut of rookie De’Von Achane was off the charts, 208 yards on just 19 carries for an absurd 10.9 YPC. Passing is not quite as even. Josh Allen has a pedestrian 90.3 passer rating, in large part due to his 5 TD’s and 4 INT’s with 728 yards passing. On the flip side, QB Tua Tagovailoa has a 121.9 QBR with 8 TD’s and only 2 INT’s and 1024 yards passing.

As you all know, I just hate when our players get caught in the hype machine, and our young 3rd year LB Jaelan Phillips has been absolutely crushed by it. It appears as if Jaelan Phillps will miss the Buffalo game, and it looks likely that C Connor Williams may also miss this contest with a groin injury. Williams still has a chance to play, and although LT Terron Armstead only logged a limited practice yesterday, he’s likely to play. Unfortunately, this is the wrong week to have anyone on this O-line out, especially considering how well this unit has performed. Good news is WR Jaylen Waddle has been cleared from concussion protocol and got in a full practice yesterday. If Connor Williams can’t go, Liam Eichenberg will likely play C, and while his snaps are more accurate than his predecessor Connor Williams, we all know his blocking hasn’t been up to snuff. Like I said, bad week to make O-line substitutions.

While the Dolphins were pouring it on with a record breaking 10 offensive TD’s last week, The Bills defense pounded Commanders QB Sam Howell all day long to the tune of 9 sacks, 4 INT’s and 1 forced fumble and fumble recovery. Truth is, if we’re being honest, I know I expected a much better defense here in Miami with Vic Fangio. It’s also very early in the season, we haven’t yet completed a 1/4 of the season and it can definitely take time for a scheme to take hold. It’s not that the defense has been awful, it just hasn’t been better than last year, which in and of itself is a disappointment. The Bills have 12 sacks, our defense has 8, not a huge disparity, and much like our offensive numbers are skewed by last weeks Broncos game, the Bills are defensive numbers are aided by their dominant game against the Commanders.

To be clear, it’s still very possible that C Connor Williams plays, he did log a limited practice yesterday, so I wouldn’t rule him out. It’s just that you don’t want to exacerbate an injury any further and lose that player for an extended period of time, but if he can go, as I previously mentioned, this is not the week for an O-line substitution. For some bad news, both WR’s River Cracraft (shoulder) and Erik Ezukanma (neck) both did not practice, but I remind you that Jaylen Waddle will be suiting up. This means opportunities for Berrios who has already been wonderful, and Robbie Chosen who caught his first TD last week in a Dolphins uniform. Our old friend AVG, Andrew Van Ginkel has played so well this season, and surely has had a much larger role in this defense, both week 1 where he played inside, and then of course last week because of Jaelan Phillps injury. I would like to point out something that concerns me, our 2 top tacklers thus far this season are DB’s. Safeties Jevon Holland (33), and DeShon Elliott (22) are tops, and not too far behind are CB’s Kader Kohou (16) and Xavien Howard (15). I would think this is not a good trend, and hopefully once the Fangio defensive scheme takes hold, this will even out.

I really don’t know what to expect, although I would be surprised if this was an offensive shootout. I feel like these divisional games are much more measured and careful, and although last year’s playoff game was a 34-31 shootout of sorts, I think the scores will be lower. There’s a lot on the line for such an early season matchup, but the Bills don’t want the Dolphins to have a 2 game advantage on them, and the Dolphins would like nothing more to potentially be the only undefeated team in the NFL and also hold a 2 game edge on their division rival Bills, who have won the division each of the last 3 seasons. I expect us to try and run the ball often, and don’t expect another 300 + yards rushing for the Dolphins. Josh Allen loves playing against us, he owns us, he’s 9-2, but more importantly, 6-0 at home in Buffalo. For perspective, I’ll remind you that our last 3 games against the Bills have been decided by 3 points or less (34-31), (32-29), and a Dolphins victory (21-19). All I know is this is MUST WATCH TV!

GO DOLPHINS!!!