Finsmob Unleashed

The run must continue! The Miami Dolphins travel to Green Bay Wisconsin to play the Green Bay Packers in a late Thanksgiving matchup. The Dolphins have now won 3 games in a row, but this game will be different. Let me explain why it’s different. The first victory of the 3 game winning streak was no easy challenge. They were facing the LA Rams, who at that time were on their own 3 game win streak, and were playing well, and just got both of their excellent WR’s back in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. That was a well earned victory. Winning in the NFL any week is a good victory because “Any Given Sunday” is an expression that is both accurate and respected. The Dolphins shut down a Rams offense from getting into the endzone that Sunday, beating the Rams 23-15. Since then, the offense has really kicked into gear, as we put 34 points on both the Las Vegas Raiders, and then last week, the New England Patriots, both home games for the Dolphins. This week’s game will likely feature temperatures between 20-25 degrees. For our Miami Dolphins, that’s a factor that has had our Dolphins stymied throughout history. That needs to change tonight!

I believe the type of football we have been playing the last few games can survive in colder climes. We’re no longer relying on a deep passing aerial attack, we’re moving the ball methodically with a short passing game using the running backs, the TE’s, and the WR’s at usually no more than 10-15 downfield. Tua will hit those passes all day long, and receivers like RB De’Von Achane and TE Jonnu Smith have turning some of those short passes into nice gains. This is something we just couldn’t do when our offense was floundering. If you took WR’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and bumped them off their routes and manhandled them, our offense was done. Finally, HC Mike McDaniel has found the solution. If opposing defenses are going to play the umbrella defense with two safeties high, and commit to take away the deep strikes this offense relied upon last season, the answer is to play a ball control offense mixing the run game by using running backs, WR’s on jet sweeps and even TE’s too, namely Jonnu Smith. In addition, playing a lot of 2 TE sets, especially with the absence of FB Alec Ingold, who is back now, but using the TE’s to block and also as receivers and moving the ball downfield with short gains and getting lots of first downs on the way to the endzone. This offense can play anywhere, but the big question is, can the psyche of this team survive in the cold?

LG Robert Jones, who is banged up is going to start this game tonight, but finally, in Week 13, LG Isaiah Wynn is available. Former 2nd stringer LG Lester Cotton was released, so obviously they feel Wynn can make it through the rest of the season. If Jones falters, expect to see Wynn sooner than later. On defense, we’re going to miss 3 players for this matchup, CB Kendall Fuller (concussion), ILB Anthony Walker is OUT and will be replaced by former Seattle Seahawks LB who played last week, Tyrel Dodson, and OLB Tyus Bowser is OUT and will be replaced by rookie Mo Kamara. CB Kendall Fuller will be replaced by a combo of CB’s Cam Smith and rookie UDFA Storm Duck. The Packers will be without CB Jaire Alexander, LB Edgerrin Cooper, and WR Romeo Doubs.

If you’re here, you’re a die hard fan of the Miami Dolphins and you’re painfully aware of the Dolphins woes in colder climes. There are many stats out there that can be discounted for one reason or another, but 0-11 when the temperature is below 40 degrees is hard to defend. For some clarity, QB Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been the QB for all of those games, just 7 of them, and the stats are not pretty. These are the stats in those 7 games . . .

• Completion rate: 135-of-243 (55.6%)
• Passing yards: 1,687
• Passing TDs: 8
• INTs: 10
• Yards/attempt: 6.9
• Passer rating: 71.13

• Completion rate: 1,151-of-1,666 (69.1%)
• Passing yards: 12,911
• Passing TDs: 87
• INTs: 32
• Yards/attempt: 7.7
• Passer rating: 101.35

Above are stats for QB Tua Tagovailoa in every other game, and the difference is striking.The QB rating in particular takes a 30 point nosedive. The TD:INT ratio is significantly worse, going from a positive 55 to a negative 2. The good news is, and I believe it’s good news, is QB Tua Tagovailoa appears to have some swagger, some confidence, that he can change this. He made a statement recently that he loves killing narratives. Well, this narrative has legs, thick ones, and believe me, it would be an absolute pleasure to see Tua and the Dolphins succeed and beat a good team in Prime Time in a cold weather situation. For what it’s worth, the oddsmakers believe it’s a close call as the Packers are only 3.5 point favorites at home.

The Dolphins vs Packers are the marquis matchup this Thanksgiving, with the other games being the (4-7) Dallas Cowboys hosting the (2-9) NY Giants, and the NFL’s best (10-1) Detroit Lions hosting the (4-7) Chicago Bears. The Dolphins at 5-6 wouldn’t usually get so much respect, or deserve it, but this team is playing its best football right now, scoring 30.3 PPG during the 3 game win streak and 29 PPG over the last 5 games, which include 2 difficult losses, a 1 point last second loss to the Arizona Cardinals and a 3 point loss to our rival Buffalo Bills. Tua is back, and he’s been dealing! 11 TD’s against only 1 INT in those last 5 games, that’s just on fire. I like that Tua is confident, even if it’s just for the press. Maybe just saying it will bore into into his psyche and he’ll start believing it. We simply can’t beat the Packers unless Tua is playing well, the offense just doesn’t work.

Now a little about the defense. Our defense is not a scary one, but it’s starting to come around. It was crystal clear how much the defense missed DE Zach Sieler. He could be one of the most underrated DE’s in the NFL. He and DE Calais Campbell have been unbelievable with 4 sacks each, but their play is so much more than sacks, Both Sieler and Campbell have over 30 tackles each, Campbell leads the team with 9 tackles for loss, Sieler leads the team with 9 QB hits. Rookie OLB Chop Robinson has made an impact the last few weeks as I highlighted in the last article, and he now has 3.5 sacks, all of them coming in the last 4 games. DE Emmanuel Ogbah quietly has 3.5 sacks as well, he nnever seems to get any credit, but is always doing his job, and doing it well, a true professional. Mo Kamara will get his first real action of the season with OLB Tyus Bowser OUT. ILB Tyrel Dodson got his first start last week in place of the injured Anthony Walker and will once again start this week. He was the leading tackler on the Seattle Seahawks when he was strangely released, and the Dolphins wisely snatched him up. He quickly leapfrogged ILB’s Duke Riley and Channing Tindall. Her came up with a game sealing INT at 5:19 left in the game against the Patriots.

The Packers are top 10 in scoring on offense, 8th (26.6 PPG), and 6th in defensive scoring (20.3 PPG). The Packers have also won 6 of 7, the lone loss coming to the NFL’s best Detroit Lions 24-14. This is not an easy task for us, even a desperate team like the Dolphins who have little or no margin for error and one loss could end the playoff aspirations of this team. The Packers are in a fight of their own in the stacked NFC North, and at 8-3, are third in their own division behind the 10-1 Lions, and the 9-2 Vikings. The Packers will certainly get a Wild Card because the rest of NFC is mediocre at best, but if the Packers want to compete for a division title, they must continue to win to keep pace. Whatever happens tonight, I hope the Dolphins play their best football. If they do, I think they can hang with the Packers and potentially take them down too. Just play great, and the rest will fall into place. I wish all of you a blessed and Happy Thanksgiving Day. Enjoy!

Happy Thanksgiving

GO DOLPHINS!!!!