Finsmob Unleashed

The run must continue! The Dolphins were able to stay alive this past Sunday defeating the visiting Las Vegas Raiders, 34-19. Currently sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins still have plenty of work to do to be considered a legitimate playoff contender, but we’re in ONE-WEEK-AT-A-TIME mode here. No reason to think ahead, just concentrate at the task ahead of you each week. This week our division rival New England Patriots come to Hard Rock and the Dolphins are a TD plus favorite. If last night’s gane is a wake up call to not look past ANY opponent, the red hot Pittsburgh Steelers, the previously 8-2 Steelers, were riding a 5 game win streak, and played in a snowstorm in Cleveland which is something the Steelers are quite comfortable playing in, but the Browns came to play and ended the 5 game win streak and dropped the Steelers 24-19. That could happen if the Dolphins aren’t prepared. A loss to the Patriots this weekend would likely be the death knell for the 2024 Dolphins season. We have no margin for error, especially playing at home, in a game we’re favored by a TD. You lose to Green Bay on Thanksgiving late in the evening in likely frigid Green Bay, that’s one thing, and that loss would also very much damage our chances. We’ve put ourselves in a position where just can’t afford to lose more than 1 game, so this Sunday just can’t be that one.

The Dolphins have been playing better on both sides of the ball, and the offense has been humming, despite having any kind of deep passing attack with 2 speedy WR’s in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The good news is we have finally started to use the TE as a receiver, and when we picked up TE Jonnu Smith, I was excited to finally have a receiving TE. It took a while to make him part of the passing game, but he truly is a weapon, and he’s getting more and more action each game. The run game has been keeping opposing defenses honest, but it hasn’t been great lately. The “bellcow” back has been De’Von Achane, and his dropoff in YPC is the first thing you notice. Last year Achane averaged 7.8 YPC, but with much higher usage and many more carries, Achane has managed only 4.3 YPC. He has done a lot of damage in the passing game though, and Achane leads the Dolphins with 46 receptions for 349 yards. This is all part of the Mike McDaniel offense that is taking what is given to them by opposing defenses, who continue to play the umbrella defense, 2 high safeties protecting against the deep ball. Tua has remained patient, hasn’t forced the ball at all, and we’ve been better for it. QB Tua Tagovailoa has completed 73% of his passes for 1443 yards, 9 TD’s and 4 INT’s. Considering he started the season with 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s after game 2, he’s thrown only 1 INT in the last 4 games against 7 TD’s. Ball security however, has been a concern for Tua with 5 fumbles, one very important one lost, the Arizona Cardinals “Fest” game which many of us here saw in person.

QB Tua Tagovailoa has a perfect 6-0 record against the Patriots, with and without Bill Belichick. He’s going to need to keep that going this week. The Patriots offense has been struggling, but it does appear that the Patriots have found their QB in 2024 1st RD pick (#3 overall), Drake Maye. So far in his rookie campaign, Maye has completed 126 of 189 pass attempts (66.7%) for 1236 yards, 9 TD’s and 6 INT’s. Besides RB Rhamondre Stevenson, this Patriots offense hasn’t much to look at. TE Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in receptions with 46 for 491 yards and 1 TD, and he is the most targeted receiver. WR’s Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne have had quiet seasons. There’s a reason why this Dolphins team, who has no business being a TD favorite any week, will be this Sunday. That being said, Mike McDaniel has to have his team ready for anything, and they need to take this game seriously and put this team away.

While the bizarre season’s continue for WR’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, they have been a little more involved in the passing game in the last couple of weeks. Despite that, neither receiver has yet to crack 500 yards, which is crazy considering Tyreek Hill was on pace for 2000 last year. There’s a good chance that these 2 receivers combined won’t crack 2000, but the stats don’t matter, winning is ALL that matters, and this team has a lot of winning to do the next 7 weeks! RB Raheem Mostert has struggled to hold onto the football and that has elevated the carries that RB De’Von Achane gets. Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright each have less than half the carries Achane has (Mostert 58), (Wright 52) whole Achane has 122 carries. Wright, in particular, has been stymied as of late, but to be fair, he’s getting one or two carries a drive, and it’s hard for RB’s to get into a rhythm like that. One important factor is FB Alec Ingold has been OUT, and he’s trying his best to play this weekend. When Ingold is in there as a lead blocker, the run game is much better. TE Julian Hill has been getting lots of blocking assignments with mixed results. We definitely miss Ingold.

On defense, rookie OLB Chop Robinson has been lining up wide to give him more space between himself and the tackle and it has paid dividends. His quick burst forces the tackle to commit one way or the other from a distance and this has allowed Chop to change his path. When he was lined up closer to the tackle, far too often he got engulfed. DE Zach Sieler has been awesome since returning from his eye injury. ILB Anthony Walker has made a difference replacing ILB David Long. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is a load and will be a good test for our defense. He’s a physical runner that goes strictly north/south, but a difficult guy to bring down, especially when he has a head of steam. ILB Anthony Walker will probably be covering TE Hunter Henry a good part of the day, but we need to tackle well on Sunday. The defense is currently 15th in the NFL in points allowed at 22.1, but you can see how much better this defense is with DE Zach Sieler back. Sieler and DE Calais Campbell have been awesome, they make this defense go. Major props to OLB/DE Emmanuel Ogbah who is right behind Siler and Campbell in QB hits, Sieler has 8, Campbell 7 and Ogbah 6. Campbell has 4 sacks and leads the Dolphins followed by Sieler and Ogbah with 3 each. Jalen Ramsey continues his excellent playh, but with CB Kendall Fuller OUT with a concussion, the CB spot opposite Ramsey has been a revolving door with CB’s Kader Kohou, Storm Duck and Cam Smith. I would love Cam Smith to step up and take that spot, but he hasn’t been able to do that as of yet.

I’m interested to see if the Patriots, who have watched the Dolphins perform well using a ball control offense, running the ball and a short passing game try to make the Dolphins beat them deep, something they haven’t done in weeks, with the exception of the Jonnu Smith 57 yard TD which was a coverage breakdown by the Raiders D. The Dolphins held the ball for 33 minutes and put on a master class of ball control. The Dolphins had 2 TD drives possessing the ball over 8 minutes, another drive where they had the ball for 7:47 and scored a TD and one more where they had the ball for 5:47 and scored a TD. Long, successful drives are a marvel to watch, and in the long run, is better for our team, mostly the defense, because it gives them time to rest. While I loved our quick strike offense, this version of the offense is the one you win playoff games and bad weather games with, so keep that in mind.

GO DOLPHINS!!!