It’s going to be really, really cold on Saturday, and our Dolphins now have to deal with subzero temperatures, as well as Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs. Not sure if either team has a real advantage in this weather, but no question the Dolphins don’t get the edge they could have had if they locked up their division, and took care of business! Alas, we are where we are, and now we have to hope that somehow we can make an improbable tour through some of the best AFC teams and knock them off one by one in their house. First up is KC, as two 11-6 teams clash. Oddly enough, both teams are disappointed to finish 11-6, although the Chiefs did win the AFC West division, where the next best team was 8-9. Not so, as we all well know in the AFC East. The Dolphins had everything laid out perfectly, a 3 game lead with 5 games to go, Dolphins 10-4, Bills 7-6. We didn’t wash out in December like many past seasons, we went 3-2, but the Bills got hot when it counts and went 4-0 after their BYE week.
Time to move on from the past, and start looking ahead. The team has no choice, and neither do we. The Chiefs have changed from the usual high flying offense to a middling offensive team. Their defense though has improved significantly and is the more dominant unit, the better unit by far. Regardless of this, we all know Kansas City is dangerous offensively because as long as #15 Patrick Mahomes is on the field, the Chiefs are an offense to be feared. Mahomes brings an 11-3 Playoff record to this Wild Card clash, so while Dolphins fans are hopeful because the Chiefs haven’t been the explosive offense they’ve been in the past, that changes when it counts. Speaking of changing when it counts, our team, and our QB included, have played tight, and the offense hasn’t been remotely as effective in big games. Now some fans have different definitions as to what big games are, but to simplify this, how about we just take the last 3 games of the season where the Buffalo Bills are on a tear, and we need to win every game to hold them off.
Week 14, The Dolphins have a 3 game lead over Buffalo. We host the Titans on Monday Night Football in the friendly confines of Hard Rock Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa throws for 240 yards, zero TD’s, zero INT’s. Not a horrible game, a respectable 90.3 QBR, but not exactly a game that leads the team to an important victory either. The next week we hosted the hapless NY Jets, and we handled the Jets rather easily in this one. Tua was 21-24 for 224 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT’s. Solid game, the defense was stifling, Sanders kicked 3 FG’s and Raheem Mostert rushed for a TD. Christmas Eve day we host the Cowboys, and we eek out a one point victory. Tua does lead the game winning FG drive, but aerial attack isn’t what it was earlier in the season as Tua managed to throw just 1 TD and it’s K Jason Sanders who boots 5 FG’s that carries the team. Then we travel to Baltimore for our every few years smackdown. Winning QB Lamar Jackson throws 5 TD’s, 0 INT’s. Tua Tagovailoa 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s. So that’s December for ya! 5 games, 4 TD’s, 2 INT’s. I’m not handpicking stats, they are what they are. I’m not even including the earlier season games against winning teams like the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, if I did, it would be uglier, you can trust me. There’s no false narrative, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense do not play well against better competition.
The good thing is, as long as he’s still playing, he can change that. He has a fantastic opportunity to turn all that around by playing a great game and leading his team to victory against the Chiefs in frigid conditions. Believe me, he needs this, the team needs this. Perhaps it’s a foregone conclusion that Tua is going to get paid $50M per year, but winning a playoff game or two would go a long way towards earning it. Our defense is a shocking, yes shocking mess right now. I’ve never seen a team more decimated and ravaged by injury. It’s not enough that 3 of four LB’s went down with season ending injuries, Jaelan Phillips (Achilles), Bradley Chubb (ACL tear), and Jerome Baker (Dislocated wrist, MCL) who managed to return for the Bills game and played his heart out. Then add in the 2nd string LB Andrew Van Ginkel and then 3rd string LB Cameron Goode (Ruptured patella) so the Dolphins are left with 2nd string ILB Duke Riley and OLB’s Melvin Ingram and Emmanuel Ogbah. The Dolphins have signed OLB’s Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin and they will absolutely see a fair amount of action, because neither Ogbah or Ingram are truly in playing shape, neither of them have been playing. At ILB, Calvin Munson and Channing Tindall will likely play next to Duke Riley, unless we activate ILB Malik Reed from the practice squad who was also recently signed. Let’s be honest, if you don’t think the Chiefs watched the Bills torch our LB’s last week and aren’t salivating at the prospects of TE Travis Kelce and RB Isiah Pacheco having record breaking days, well . . . .
Even will all of the injuries, I think we can beat the Chiefs. Of course we have numerous players QUESTIONABLE for tomorrow night, WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert, S Jevon Holland, S DeShon Elliott, and unfortunately, CB Xavien Howard remains OUT. I would tend to think that all of our guys will play, as Apollo Creed says, “There is no tomorrow!” If it’s extremely windy, that will make passing more difficult, and we know which of the two QB’s is capable of overcoming the wind with a powerful arm. I’m sure we’ll be running as much as we can, and with our stable of RB’s, I think we have the advantage with Mostert, Achane, Wilson and Brooks compared to the Chiefs Pacheco, Edwards-Helaire and Perine. This will most likely be a trenches game, and we should have 3/5’s of our original line back, although you can say 4/5’s as Eichenberg has been starting at C for a while now. There’s a small chance of snow, which would make the game more interesting to watch for sure.
This is not where we want to be, but we’re in the playoffs, and we still have a chance to make some noise. It could be a great story if some of the guys we picked up make a big impact on the game. Imagine if Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin each get a couple of sacks and maybe force a turnover or two? Imagine if Malik Reed gets called up from the practice squad and intercepts a pass to TE Travis Kelce to seal a Dolphins victory? Anything can happen, and I’m happy we still have an opportunity even though we choked away the division crown. We can make the most of a poor situation. One game at a time, but have to win it to stay in it. Beat the Chiefs and then we’ll see who we have to play next. At least if we win tomorrow night, the team will have some newfound confidence going forward, and Hard Knocks will much more watchable for all of us.
GO DOLPHINS!!!
Finsmob Unleashed 
This tells you everything you need to know:
Joe Schad
@schadjoe
Tua Tagovailoa passer rating, last 5 games
119.4
98.1
71.9
62.7
60.5 (w/2 minutes left)
Pressure did not produce a diamond
EXIT –> 2023
ENTER –> 2024
Congrats to our Phins for making the playoffs for the 2nd time in 2 years!
VERY GOOD season!
Now, we must build on what works and work on building what didn’t work.
Flores was right all along.
Yes he was. We still only beat one winning team all year. I think McDaniel was exposed as well. I doubt Ross gives him more than next year to continue the embarrassing losses to good teams.
I hope we have the hardest schedule in the NFL next season that way we don’t get any false hope going into December. Earn a playoff big beating the good teams. Win the tough games and make me a believer again.
OK, on the road now. lol
We’re just a few players away from being great.
11-6 in the regular season is the same record that KC had
and much better than most teams had.
I think we’re one of only four teams with a winning record in 4 straight seasons.
(I need to check the facts on that one.)
Not a lot of HCs go to the playoffs both of their first 2 years.
Tua had the most passing yards in the league.
Here’s hoping McDaniel isn’t too stuck in his one thing
to learn from this year’s losses.
But there are many teams in much more of a mess than Miami.
QB
It’s a shame what happened on D. That could have been a really good unit.
^^^
There’s no evidence of that. KC beat winning teams during the year with that record. Everyone else but us with that record beat winning teams.
Tua beat very bad teams. Lots of players with less experience can do that. I can’t think of a team in the playoffs, outside of Tampa, with more issues than we had.
Our Phins have lost our last 11 games when the temperature was 40 degrees or under.
^ Via TSN
Moving the Bills game is TOTAL bullshit. The forecast for Sunday there is a high of 27 degrees but dropping to 23 degrees by kickoff with lake affect snow and 26 MPH winds.
It’s going to be colder on Monday in Buffalo. It shows the temp at 4:30 pm kickoff to be 17 degrees, 44% chance of lake affect snow and 17 mph wind.
I’m sorry folks, but I see nothing positive coming out of this season. Stats were better, but this ain’t fantasy. Still can’t beat playoff teams. Still can’t win big games. Still looking for franchise QB. Still wilt under pressure. Still can’t stay healthy.
Unfortunately #3 – well that sucked happened. We were like the wounded sea turtle trying to get away from a decent sized tiger shark. Probably not going to happen in their territory.
Keep trying to get better and stronger. I have no idea how to do that. I enjoyed the season but it ended in a dud. Oh well, maybe I need to think less about sports I can’t control. Probably not going to happen. 😂
Especially when the offense scored 7 points, continuing the theme of us coming up short against playoff teams . W averaged 15.5 ppg over the last four games. Not gonna cut it .
I guess being a Dolphins fan can’t be all bad.
We could be a Russian soldier trying to take out a kamikaze drone with a shovel.
Well, tonight didn’t turn out all bad. I won $10 on a $5 scratcher. 🙂
Barry Jackson
@flasportsbuzz
Would have felt so much better about the future if they had lost 36-30 because then you would feel that you have a legitimately elite offense and you could have blamed loss on missing 6 core defensive guys. Can’t say that now
19, 14, 7 points scored in last 3 games…says it all, imo
In that order…lol
I think the 19 included a defensive TD.
This is the reality of our offense, all bullshit aside…lol.
Nothing special except some gaudy individual stats against lesser teams.
Throw in 22 against Dallas and that’s 15.5 points a game to close out the year- against four playoff teams. People thought they were tired of hearing the “they can’t beat good teams” talk this season? It’s going to get worse .
Nothing has changed my disgut/opinion from last week. It’s only been extended…lol
Yup
It’s that time again
Keep in mind that the last three games we had EVERYTHING right there: number one seed, division, moving on in the playoffs. The offense came up small in every single one of those games. McDaniel is just as much to blame as the offense, if not more.
Agreed
At least I have 8 months to figure out my cable/internet/streaming options for the next football season. The only reason I had DirecTV was for the NFL Ticket to watch the Dolphins and that’s a thing of the past.
Scanning the 2024 free agent list the only QB who would interest me is Baker Mayfield. After having a stellar season, he will command more money. He was top 10 overall and top 5 in some categories. There will be teams who want a good vet battling for him.
Mason Rudolph is also a UFA. He can also earn a good contract with a good showing vs the Bills.
The list of RB’s available is just sick. We don’t really need one though. We have Mostert, Achane, Wilson and Brooks returning. Antonio Gibson does interest me. He was misused by the Commanders. He is big and fast with WR skills. Washington used him as a between the tackles RB.
1) Saquon Barkley
2) Josh Jacobs
3) Tony Pollard
4) Austin Ekeler
5) D’Andre Swift
6) Derrick Henry
7) Zack Moss
8) Devin Singletary
9) Antonio Gibson
10) J.K. Dobbins
There are a couple good UFA Centers available.
We have a LOT of salary cap issues to deal with before we consider FA’s, including a host of our own we need to re sign . I know teams usually figure it out, but I think we are going to lose some guys because of that.
Oh definitely. Regardless, we only have 37 players under contract for 2024. We have a ton of spots to fill with free agents.
Including our own
Yeah. We are not in a good situation. We can shed some salary, but will need to restructure a bunch as well. I’d try to ride with Tua on a fifth year option. Maybe see what he wants for a long term deal with an early out. I’m not paying him $45-50 million though. He’s not worth that right now.
With our cap space, we are going to have to resign most of our backups and hope for the best on the OL. Maybe a good one falls to us in the draft. Maybe Wynn with his injury won’t cost to much to resign.
Maybe we roll with Eich at center. We can’t afford to revamp the OL, nor should we. But we should draft someone at LG to groom. The problem is we don’t have a third or a fourth, so the guys we are picking will need to contribute soon.
Too early to call Cam Smith a bust? I know Fangio’s D is complex, but I hoped that we would have seen More of him this year.
Especially when the other option was Apple.
Apple should have been cut on plane ride back
We only have 3 WR and 2 TE under contract for 2024 in Hill, Waddle, EZ, Smythe and Julian Hill.
Figures Cedric Wilson had his best season as a Dolphins and we cut him loose. Still have a 1 mil dead cap on him for 2024 also.
WR’s who interest me from other teams are Ravens Devin Duvernay (4.39), Bears Darnell Mooney (4.38), Eagles Quez Watkins (4.36) and Vikings K.J. Osborn.
TE list is “meh” as far as what we can afford. Also, I have no clue in who is athletic and can block well in our system. Might as well brin Tanner Connor back.
Duvernay is a legit returner too.
Yep
Brian in NY says:
January 14, 2024 at 10:59 am
Maybe we roll with Eich at center. We can’t afford to revamp the OL, nor should we. But we should draft someone at LG to groom. The problem is we don’t have a third or a fourth, so the guys we are picking will need to contribute soon.
———–
I think Eich would be best kept as a backup for the interior OL if we could draft a starting caliber center and resign Lamm, Jones and hopefully Hunt.
Only OL under contract in 2024 are Armstead, Jackson, Kion Smith, Eich and Cotton.
We have to re-sign Hunt. My thought with Eich is he did decent at center, having never played there. Maybe we can develop him. I don’t love a back up OL for a second rounder we traded up for…
I agree. Give him a whole offseason at OC and see what he does.
Well that sucked. I drove an hour in -5 temp to go watch this game at a friend’s house because I refused to sign up for Peacock. I knew better, so it’s really my own fault for caring. So frustrating because I think if our defense was healthy this KC team was ripe to get their asses kicked….but 7 points ain’t gonna beat anybody.
***
Tua is what he is. There is no ceiling to get to. This is it. MM doesn’t know how to call an offense. He can design really cool looking plays with motion everywhere, but who cares if they don’t lead to scores when it matters? Whoever in the media called him a running game guru was a moron.
Tua is a slight upgrade over RT17. How many years are we going to wait for him to show he’s our franchise QB? The problem is he is not good enough to be great and not bad enough to be terrible. Just keep drafting them til you find one. They show you right away if they have it or not.
Tua can win an SB, but he’s not going to put the team on his back
Last year Hurts looked great QBing a great all around team, not so much this year
One area Tua struggles mightily is in short yardage runs, while larger QBs are unstoppable with the tush push type of plays
-30 was too much to overcome
Very difficult to go from 80 degree normal weather to sub zer0 Temps
Saw several guys like Apple, that didn’t join the tackle, giving the runner extra yards far too often
Tua’s weak arm really showed up
Waddle with an alligator arm attempt
With 1/3 of our starters out it was apparent the last few weeks we aren’t contenders unless healthy
Why should we be so naive to think we could beat the Champs under such a handicap, when Buffalo and Baltimore have struggled to beat KC with full squads?
It was a good season hampered by injury, we’ll be back next year, hopefully with a TE, that can bull his way thru the middle
Sat next to a couple last night watching the game, that relocated to Vegas after Ian destroyed their Fort Meyers home
You would think we were good at LB but the players who will be rehabbing all year is ridiculous. Also, who knows if they will be able to come back as the player they were. Mainly referring to Phillips and Chubb. We have under contract:
Chubb (Knee)
Phillips (Achilles)
Goode (Knee)
Riley
Baker (Knee/Wrist)
Long
Tindall
Vandenburgh (IR but not sure what injury was)
At ILB, I like UFA’s Bills Tyrel Dodson, Chiefs Willie Gay and Eagles Shaquille Leonard but they will cost too much. I still like Kwon Alexander who would be a big upgrade over bust Tindall as a backup ILB and same with Browns Anthony Walker, Jr.
Alexander is hurt pretty often. We can’t afford to invest in risks like him anymore.
He plays hard and would be a backup. Just thinking out loud. lol
At OLB, to add depth, both Pats backups Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings are available. Steelers Mykal Walker is another. Not sure what K’Lavon Chaisson will command as he didn’t live up to his draft hype but still decent.
NEW BLOG UP!!!
DL is another BIG one we have to address. Only DL under contract for 2024 are Zach Seiler and Ogbah. THAT’S IT.
Fuck a Tua extension. We HAVE to resign Wilkins. Pay the man and push it forward. In his 5 seasons he has 355 tackles, 20.5 sacks (9 this season), 4 FF, 19 PD’s with 1 INT.
There are some good DL out there but many we can’t afford unless we don’t resign Wilkins. If we resign him, I like (for depth), Browns Jordan Elliott and Raiders Adam Butler. Also, maybe Browns Maurice Hurst or Cardinals Leki Fotu.
I think Butler could give us some quality time and really spell Wilkins and Seiler.
Then, we also could resign Davis also.
Twice in this game a Dallas pass rusher took one step, after the pass was thrown, then pushed Love to the ground and no roughing the passer was called
Exact same thing Wilkins called called for
Do home teams get the calls in the playoffs or what