Dolphins have many decisions, but one very big one to start offseason moves

There will be lots of decisions that both GM Chris Grier and Head Coach Mike McDaniel have to make to kick off the offseason flurry of moves and machinations. The very first one, and one that will impact all of the others is whether to give current QB Tua Tagovailoa a new contract that would keep him in a Miami Dolphins uniform for the next 6 years or more, or just let him play out the 5th year option we’ve already picked up which would pay Tua $23.17M in 2024. It’s easy to say that if we give him a new contract that it will free up much needed cap room to re-sign players here, and sign other players that are not. On the other hand, this could be a very short sighted move if Tua Tagovailoa cannot bring this team to a championship. I’m a fan of Tua Tagovailoa, he’s as likable as they come. He’s not a “Me” guy, always puts the team first. I want him to succeed, I really do, but my doubts about him really spiked seeing how he struggled against better teams, and I mean every single one of them. It’s not just a slight difference either, it’s Jekyll and Hyde different.

The games I’m referring to are the 2 against the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, then the Eagles, Cowboys and then the Ravens. I’m going to throw in the Titans game as well.

In 10 games against the Chargers, Jets, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, Raiders, Giants and Redskins, this is what Tua did . . .

324 pass attempts, 233 completions, 3040 yards, 22 TD’s and 8 INT’s / QBR 113.45

Then in 8 games against the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Cowboys and Titans, this is what Tua did . . .

275 pass attempts, 175 completions, 1833 yards, 8 TD’s and 7 INT’s / QBR 81.98

Those numbers are disturbing. The Cowboys game at home was the only game against the better teams that Tua finished with a good QBR, and that was 98.1, but again, we needed 5 Jason Sanders field goals to win that win as Tua managed only 1 TD. If you watched all the games, the numbers alone don’t even tell the full story. Our passing game was just shut down, and a bunch of these games are before the injuries occurred. For example, we out rushed the Bills in our first meeting 142 – 104. So it wasn’t a case that Tua had do it all. The same goes for the Chiefs game during the regular season. We out rushed KC 117-93. It’s not a matter of complimentary football, the run game was working, but the QB just didn’t get the job done. We easily out rushed the Titans, 158 – 83. Again, the QB just didn’t get the job done, and this game, the defense as well. My point is, some of you would probably think that our offense as a whole played poorly in these games, but clearly, that was not the case. 

One of my favorite players, Christian Wilkins put up a great season in ’22, and we offered him a relatively low contract, and he decided to bet on himself in ’23. Well, if we can use him as an example of playing on the final year of a contract and rising to the occasion, Wilkins did even better in ’23.

2022  17 Games - 98 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FF’s, 1 FR, 16 TFL, 7 QB HITS

2023  17 Games – 65 tackles, 9.0 sacks, 1FF, 2 FR’s,10 TFL, 23 QB HITS

Is it really so crazy to let Tua play on his current contract? I suppose the Dolphins can offer Tua a low contract around $40M per with less guaranteed money, but would he take that? I would think not. We could only hope that he would embrace his opportunity like Christian Wilkins did, bet on himself, and cash in in 2024. It would be the best possible outcome, rather than relying on confidence that he can finally step up in these big games, or that we can save possibly $10-12M in cap space in 2024 if we give him a big contract. Once again, that’s looking at the end of your nose, not out in front. Unless you have absolute conviction that Tua Tagovailoa can bring this team a championship, without everything being ideal, then in my opinion you just can’t do it. They already made a choice by opting in for his 5th year. I fully understand that he answered the “Can he stay healthy?” question by not only playing 17 games, but also a playoff game. On the other hand, if you watched every game, no question Tua played like he needed to play next week every game. Sliding before securing the first down on numerous occasions, and in general just not playing with abandon, like his Buffalo Bills counterpart Josh Allen, or even Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and especially the Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who puts his body in peril almost every play. 

Besides Tua, this team has plenty of other decisions to make. We must shed contracts and open up cap room. We’re nearly $50M over the cap so the roster as it stands can’t remain. I think we’re going to lose some good players, one’s we’d like to keep, like OLB Andrew Van Ginkel. We can’t win a bidding war, and I know fans like to think he wants to stay, and he probably does, but $$$ talks, it always does. Of course we’ll ask the top salary earners for restructures which basically pays them money up front, so no problem there. Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and probably Jalen Ramsey will be the ones to accommodate here. I do believe we may have seen the last of CB Xavien Howard in a Dolphins uniform. Unfortunately, I feel the same for ILB Jerome Baker. LT Terron Armstead is another huge earner, and there are thoughts he may retire. That would be great for our salary cap, not so great for the team, although his availability is in question every year, and every game to be fair. OLB/DE Emmanuel Ogbah is another player who may have played his last game in Miami. His $17.7M contract is not going to happen, despite our hole at OLB with both Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips injured and questionable to play at the start of the ’24 season, along with the potential departure of OLB Andrew Van Ginkel.

Our draft haul is so important, and although meager in quantity, we absolutely need to hit on our first 2 picks. What I mean is not only do these players have to be good down the line, but we must get quality contributions NOW! We’ve been awful, just dreadful lately. RB De’Von Achane was the only bright spot, but already his durability is in question. CB Cam Smith, our first pick in RD2 couldn’t make any contribution at CB, despite a plethora of injuries at that position. Disheartening in the least! 2022 was no better. LB Channing Tindall RD3, WR Erik Ezukanma RD4, and then LB Cameron Goode and QB Skylar Thompson in RD 7. Zero, zilch, nada! That just has to change this season. We’ve traded to acquire lots of talent, never a prudent formula in the NFL. The best organizations like the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, both perennial playoff teams just don’t do that. Now we’re stuck in a cap forced window where we just have a year or so to succeed. We must hit on picks so that when that window closes, we don’t fall to the basement of the AFC and spend a decade digging ourselves out. Just to reiterate something here, if we give Tua a contract now, it would almost certainly be in the neighborhood of $45-50 per year. If he plays so well this year in 2024, and say takes us to the Super Bowl, maybe he gets $55-60M? Well worth the gamble in my opinion. On the other hand, if he plays worse, the team regresses, or he gets injured, while also unfortunate, we’ll have made the right choice.

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754 Responses to Dolphins have many decisions, but one very big one to start offseason moves

  1. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    I heard Ron Rivera in Philly as DC.

  2. Krishna's avatar Krishna says:

    Fangio to be HC in Philly

  3. Brian in NY's avatar Brian in NY says:

    That would actually make a hell of a lot more sense than a lateral move,

  4. Brian in NY's avatar Brian in NY says:

    Jim Harbaugh new Chargers HC

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      Saw that coming awhile ago. Makes sense in a lot of ways.

      • Brian in NY's avatar Brian in NY says:

        Yeah, I think everyone did. He works well with QBs. This may be what the Chargers need to get over the hump; Harbaugh is been incredibly successful everywhere he’s been.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        His wife loves California, they’ve had stops in Stanford and SF and he has a talented QB in Herbert to work with.

  5. Brian in NY's avatar Brian in NY says:

    Mike E. says:
    January 24, 2024 at 6:32 pm
    If we bring in Brian Flores as DC, maybe Tua won’t mind playing on his 5th year option. lol

    HAHAHAHAHA!

  6. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    Cam Smith is probably doing victory laps right now

  7. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    We should consider hiring that guy in Minnesota as DC

    What’s his name…Flowers…floes…Flonase thing

    Anyone know his name?

    (Piggy ducks )

  8. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Fangio saw the writing on the wall He sees the situation as it is.

  9. Brian in NY's avatar Brian in NY says:

    I wonder if Fangio tries to recruit AVG to the Eagles …

  10. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    What about Wink Martindale?

  11. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    This is sad.

    I am actually tired of being a Dolphins fan. It is emotionally exhausting

    Every year it gets harder to care

  12. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Rock, two playoff seasons in a row not good enough for you?

    • Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

      Not enough for me, tell you that much.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        FinsUp! Sports are becoming solely entertainment, not real life anymore. I can’t control what I can’t control. Go team! 🙂

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      No, it is not. Are you going to be satisfied with next season if they are last in the AFCE again? Tim: “Oh well, they DID make the playoffs last year and the year before. So what most of those players couldn’t be retained”

  13. Ken's avatar Ken says:

    Apparently Fangio really wants to be in Philly and was never all in in Miami

  14. ElephantRider's avatar ElephantRider says:

    Not too surprised. McDaniel is a players coach. Fangio is not. It was a weird dynamic.
    Hope he goes to Philly, gets pissed and punches that asshat of a coach.

  15. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    RappIan Rapoport on the NFL Network Wednesday evening said former LA Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is a name to watch as he is close to Mike McDaniel. Staley also worked for Sean McVay for one year, and the Rams and McVay is also very close to McDaniel, and there could be a tie-in there. So that is something to keep an eye on and watch. Staley runs the same scheme Vic Fangio ran, and learned under Vic Fangio in Chicago and Denver. It appears the reason Vic wanted out of Miami was not results-based but more of a personality clash with Fangio and the players. So, keeping the same scheme with a different coordinator may be the plan of attack here.

  16. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Did you guys know that I have no confidence in Chris Grier and think he should be fired?

    “Rob and all those offensive linemen worked tirelessly to improve and get better and buy into the scheme and so for us, like all of them, he’s earned the right to be a free agent,” Grier said. “We did have a conversation with him during the season, so we’ll see what happens here as we go through it. But again, these guys have earned the right to be free agents”

    Fuck you Grier, they earned the right to be RESIGNED BEFORE WE LOSE THEM TO FREEAGENCY!

  17. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Here is his quote about Wilkins too:

    “He bet on himself and it paid off for him. I’m very happy for him,” Grier said. “So we’ll stay in communication and see where this ends up, but he earned the right to be a free agent. Again, I’m happy for him. We drafted him here, developed him here, and he’s the type of person we’re looking for.”

    Yeah we are really happy too you prick

  18. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    Renaldo Hill also worked under Fangio in Denver and was DC for Staley before coming to Miami.

  19. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    So Wilkins is all but gone already. Raekwon Davis is an URFA. Da’shawn Hand is a URFA. We have two DTs under contract in ’24. Seiler and Pili. That is it!

    the ’24 team is not going to look like the ’23 team except for maybe 25 players. Some of them unable to play until well into the season because of injuries.

    Grier fucked this team.

  20. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    Fangio was in the 2nd year of his contract. If he signs with the Eagles as new DC almost immediately after leaving Miami, isn’t that tampering?

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      the team and he “mutually agreed to go separate ways” they cut him loose. He is free to go where he likes. No tampering.

      • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

        If he “mutually agreed” bc he had a job waiting for him in Philly, then that’s tampering

  21. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    https://x.com/finsxtra/status/1750280720306647119?s=61&t=NWZ–WfgKu_dYbC-fKuB3A

    Rosenhaus says he was disliked by players which seems to pretty obvious now

  22. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Why the hell can’t we have nice things?!?

  23. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    Miami Dolphins
    2023 · 11-6-0
    COACHING NEWS

    The Dolphins are moving on from offensive assistants Ricardo Allen and Mike Judge, NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe, reported per sources. Assistant special teams coach Brendan Farrell won’t return for 2024 season, Wolfe added.

  24. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Wow, a little house cleaning going on?

  25. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    I wonder how Ramsey feels about Staley since he played under him on the Rams?

  26. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    Rock, at least we have 2 DT’s on the roster. We also only have 1 safety, Javon Holland. Jones, Elliott and Campbell are all UFA’s.

  27. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    The incomparable Crossman still a Dolphins coach?

  28. boulderfinfan's avatar boulderfinfan says:

    oh no Mike Judge is leaving? damn it. no more Beavis and Butt-head

  29. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    So, did the Eagles interview two minority candidates before hiring Fangio? Is the Rooney rule still in effect? He is signing with the Eagles today. Doesn’t seem like they had time to honestly go through the process. They should be fined.

    • Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

      He was hired as Head Coach or DC? If it’s DC, the Rooney Rule doesn’t apply

      • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

        Yes it does Mike. The Rooney rule applies to Coordinators too. Only need to have one Minority interview for coordinators though, so I guess the could interview any of their internal minority coaches and call it a day.

  30. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    WOW, I had not realized that Anthony Campanile has been with the Dolphins since 2000. 24 years coach out line backers? I would think I would remember that!

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      that’s because it isn’t true. I looked it up. 2020. The author of the article I just read had a typo and wrote 2000

  31. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    I was not impressed with Fangio.

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      he has had a top 10 Defense in 1/2 of his seasons (bottom 10 in the other half! Go figure, they left that part out when crowing about him being a top 10 DC)

  32. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Of the coache’s names they are throwing around as potential hires for Miami’s DC I like Wink the least. He has the most experience, but I would rather go with a younger guy like Staley

  33. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Tua led the NFL in Passing yards.
    His OL finished next to last in pass block win rate.

  34. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Holland not a Fangio fan? LOL

  35. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Tua set the Dolphins single season pass completion record. 69.3
    Lester Cotton played the 6th most snaps on our offense. 56%

  36. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    The Dolphins led the league in total offense and in passing offense.
    We won 11 games for the first time in 15 years.

  37. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Only half the starting 11 on offense played half the offensive snaps.
    Only 1 game featured the starting 5 OL.

    Yep. Denver.
    70 points

  38. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Only 2 guys played 90% of the offensive snaps.
    Tua at 93 and Austin Jackson at 90%.

  39. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Miami’s running back coach, Eric Studesville, will be interviewing with the Commanders for their vacant OC job.

  40. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Positions where the player missed at least one full game:
    RB1
    RB2
    RB3
    RB4
    RB5
    WR1
    WR2
    WR5
    TE1
    LT1
    LT2
    LG1
    C1
    RG1
    RG2
    RT1

    EDGE 1
    EDGE 2
    OLB 1
    OLB 3
    ILB 1
    S1
    S2
    S3
    CB2
    CB4

  41. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    In Brandon Staley’s lone season as a DC (Rams, 2020), he had the #1 scoring Defense, #1 overall Defense, the #1 passing Defense, and the #3 running Defense.

    He’s good friends with Coach McDaniel, he learned under Fangio (we’d get to keep the same scheme in ’24 for the sake of continuity), he seems to be a player’s coach like McDaniel, and he’s young.

    I’d say we’ve probably already contacted him to be our new DC… and I think he’ll accept.

  42. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Oops left out CB1

  43. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Rock, sports doesn’t bother me like it does you. I have a few friends who were huge sports fans and don’t watch it anymore. It’s just not important to them anymore. I’m not where they are because I still do enjoy it. But I’m not as emotional about it anymore.

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      so your answer is yes? You will be satisfied being in last place in the division this season because we made the playoffs two years in a row and had a first round exit? No, not good enough for me.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        Never said that and it’s a bit of a silly accusation.

        I root for the Dolphins as they are, not what I demand.

  44. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Sounds like Naples is satisfied with what our team did considering all the injuries

  45. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    I hold Fangio responsible for the Titans loss.

  46. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Fangio also had no plan to slow down Buffalo’s offense.

  47. herdfan's avatar herdfan says:

    naplesfan2010 says:
    January 25, 2024 at 1:19 pm (Edit)
    I was not impressed with Fangio.

    I was saying this at some point during the season. I don’t know anything about all this, but I felt like I’d been lied to, the great Fangio defense I was expecting didn’t seem to be all that. Then it seemed like it got better. I actually said, I think I owe him an apology. 🤣 Then the injuries and not so much again. 🤷🏼‍♀️

  48. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    MF13 Staley is my #1 pick if I had any say in the matter.

  49. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    Free agent signing period begins in 48 days.

  50. Ken's avatar Ken says:

    I will not be happy if Staley is our DC. His defense in SD was horrible

    • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

      He was the HC of the Chargers and doled out Defensive responsibilities to his DC… just as he should have as HC.

      BTW, it’s no longer SD (San Diego), it’s LA. And please don’t take me the wrong way, as I make the same mistake a LOT, Bro! 🙂

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      he had a top defense as coordinator for the Rams.

  51. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Rockphin says:
    January 25, 2024 at 3:30 pm
    MF13 Staley is my #1 pick if I had any say in the matter.
    ————-
    Absolutely, man!

  52. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Hulkster,

    I continue to make the mistake of calling the Chargers of San Diego, and the Raiders of Oakland.

    You are certainly NOT alone, buddy! 🙂

  53. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Ken, I am not suggesting hiring Derrick Ansley. (The DC for LA the last 3 years) I want to hire Staley, who learned under Fangio and ran the same system. We would have continuity that way and not have to start AGAIN with a slow start due to scheme change.

  54. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Boy that Charger D sucked. They gave up SEVEN more points than the Dolphins last season…

    They gave up 15 more points than the Dolphins in ’22

    That is a teeny little donkey you got there

  55. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

  56. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

  57. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

  58. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

  59. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    I also like that Staley is a “Failed HC” that should keep him at the coordinator level for a couple of years at least.

  60. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Belichick may sit out a year and see if the Giants have an opening next year.

  61. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    What about that Buffalo DC who is laying out a year. Leslie?
    He knows Josh Allen AND the Buffalo D personnel as well,
    so he might help us with all that.

    Is he done?
    or was he just fed up with the Bills HC’s asshole attitude?

  62. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    We’ll probably promote Campanile.

  63. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Sigh 😔
    I am sitting at Starbucks outside and it happens to be next to a hair salon and there is a woman with foil in her hair getting her tips done. So she has layer after layer after layer of tinfoil sticking up from her head. Trying to be cute. I said you get better reception with that. She looked at me with a blank look. You know like an antenna. Apparently she’s too young to have ever seen a TV antenna. 😩

  64. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Rock, not sure Staley will get another HC opportunity anytime soon. Maybe in 3 years or something like that. There will be up and coming coaches who will get opportunities over him. Minority hires are on the rise as well.

  65. pheloniusphish's avatar pheloniusphish says:

    Apples – Florida did just remove Sociology as a core course at FL universities

  66. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    pheloniusphish says:
    January 25, 2024 at 6:34 pm
    Retired
    ———————–

    That would be so awesome for him to fall short of Shula’s record.

  67. ElephantRider's avatar ElephantRider says:

    Bellicheat didn’t do anything before Lady. Didn’t do anything after. His assistants all failed too. Time to put him out to pasture.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      Don’t agree. He’s an excellent defensive coach. He was the architect of one of the most underrated defenses in history, the mid and late 80’s Giants defenses. He also played a role in suggesting LT be a pass rusher. It changed the game.

  68. Krishna's avatar Krishna says:

    Agree

  69. Ken's avatar Ken says:

    Rockphin says:
    January 25, 2024 at 4:48 pm (Edit)
    Boy that Charger D sucked. They gave up SEVEN more points than the Dolphins last season…

    They gave up 15 more points than the Dolphins in ’22

    That is a teeny little donkey you got there
    —————
    Another reason why I am not that broken up about losing Fangio. And leave my donkey. Just don’t be an ass 😉

  70. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Belichick coached two of the greatest players in NFL history. Both sides of the ball.

    Turn up your volume for this. 🙂🤘

  71. New Age's avatar New Age says:

    https://phinphanatic.com/posts/right-now-it-s-hard-to-have-much-optimism-as-a-fan-of-the-miami-dolphins-01hn0ae7m6gd

    Nice write up and I agree with him. We look like we’ll be worse just based off how much we owe and how many need paid. So worse players with a new DC and same old, same old on offense. This also hits right in the feels; “That same Texans team blew it up twice since the Laremy Tunsil deal and won a playoff game before Miami did. Think about that for a minute.”

  72. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    When looking at our team for next year this is the core to me.
    Tua
    Hill
    Waddle
    Achane
    Sieler
    Ramsey
    Holland
    Long Jr.
    Phillips and Chubb could be 2nd half of the season 😔

    These are significant players that are signed.

    • CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

      I think we have Mostert for another year too.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        I really like Mostert but he’s going to be 32 in April.

        We need a young, tough, physical back to complement Achane. Not necessarily a big “power back”, but a physical back.

      • CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

        So are you thinking make Achane the featured speedy back, kind of take Mostert’s place at the top next season, and add another physical guy to pair with him as 1b?

        Then trade Mostert? Or keep him in training camp and if he balls out then maybe he’s 1C?

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      Wow 8 players out of 53 positions. GREAT core. NOT

  73. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    I just hope we can find some stability on the oline next season.

  74. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Kong, we want a Pacheco or James Cook. That type of back. Achane is Gale Sayers when he’s good to go.

    I’m not against Mostert he had a historic year for himself. But I don’t see him being a main cog going forward.

  75. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    NEW BLOG UP!!!

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