There will be lots of decisions that both GM Chris Grier and Head Coach Mike McDaniel have to make to kick off the offseason flurry of moves and machinations. The very first one, and one that will impact all of the others is whether to give current QB Tua Tagovailoa a new contract that would keep him in a Miami Dolphins uniform for the next 6 years or more, or just let him play out the 5th year option we’ve already picked up which would pay Tua $23.17M in 2024. It’s easy to say that if we give him a new contract that it will free up much needed cap room to re-sign players here, and sign other players that are not. On the other hand, this could be a very short sighted move if Tua Tagovailoa cannot bring this team to a championship. I’m a fan of Tua Tagovailoa, he’s as likable as they come. He’s not a “Me” guy, always puts the team first. I want him to succeed, I really do, but my doubts about him really spiked seeing how he struggled against better teams, and I mean every single one of them. It’s not just a slight difference either, it’s Jekyll and Hyde different.
The games I’m referring to are the 2 against the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, then the Eagles, Cowboys and then the Ravens. I’m going to throw in the Titans game as well.
In 10 games against the Chargers, Jets, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, Raiders, Giants and Redskins, this is what Tua did . . .
324 pass attempts, 233 completions, 3040 yards, 22 TD’s and 8 INT’s / QBR 113.45
Then in 8 games against the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Cowboys and Titans, this is what Tua did . . .
275 pass attempts, 175 completions, 1833 yards, 8 TD’s and 7 INT’s / QBR 81.98
Those numbers are disturbing. The Cowboys game at home was the only game against the better teams that Tua finished with a good QBR, and that was 98.1, but again, we needed 5 Jason Sanders field goals to win that win as Tua managed only 1 TD. If you watched all the games, the numbers alone don’t even tell the full story. Our passing game was just shut down, and a bunch of these games are before the injuries occurred. For example, we out rushed the Bills in our first meeting 142 – 104. So it wasn’t a case that Tua had do it all. The same goes for the Chiefs game during the regular season. We out rushed KC 117-93. It’s not a matter of complimentary football, the run game was working, but the QB just didn’t get the job done. We easily out rushed the Titans, 158 – 83. Again, the QB just didn’t get the job done, and this game, the defense as well. My point is, some of you would probably think that our offense as a whole played poorly in these games, but clearly, that was not the case.
One of my favorite players, Christian Wilkins put up a great season in ’22, and we offered him a relatively low contract, and he decided to bet on himself in ’23. Well, if we can use him as an example of playing on the final year of a contract and rising to the occasion, Wilkins did even better in ’23.
2022 17 Games - 98 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FF’s, 1 FR, 16 TFL, 7 QB HITS
2023 17 Games – 65 tackles, 9.0 sacks, 1FF, 2 FR’s,10 TFL, 23 QB HITS
Is it really so crazy to let Tua play on his current contract? I suppose the Dolphins can offer Tua a low contract around $40M per with less guaranteed money, but would he take that? I would think not. We could only hope that he would embrace his opportunity like Christian Wilkins did, bet on himself, and cash in in 2024. It would be the best possible outcome, rather than relying on confidence that he can finally step up in these big games, or that we can save possibly $10-12M in cap space in 2024 if we give him a big contract. Once again, that’s looking at the end of your nose, not out in front. Unless you have absolute conviction that Tua Tagovailoa can bring this team a championship, without everything being ideal, then in my opinion you just can’t do it. They already made a choice by opting in for his 5th year. I fully understand that he answered the “Can he stay healthy?” question by not only playing 17 games, but also a playoff game. On the other hand, if you watched every game, no question Tua played like he needed to play next week every game. Sliding before securing the first down on numerous occasions, and in general just not playing with abandon, like his Buffalo Bills counterpart Josh Allen, or even Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and especially the Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who puts his body in peril almost every play.
Besides Tua, this team has plenty of other decisions to make. We must shed contracts and open up cap room. We’re nearly $50M over the cap so the roster as it stands can’t remain. I think we’re going to lose some good players, one’s we’d like to keep, like OLB Andrew Van Ginkel. We can’t win a bidding war, and I know fans like to think he wants to stay, and he probably does, but $$$ talks, it always does. Of course we’ll ask the top salary earners for restructures which basically pays them money up front, so no problem there. Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and probably Jalen Ramsey will be the ones to accommodate here. I do believe we may have seen the last of CB Xavien Howard in a Dolphins uniform. Unfortunately, I feel the same for ILB Jerome Baker. LT Terron Armstead is another huge earner, and there are thoughts he may retire. That would be great for our salary cap, not so great for the team, although his availability is in question every year, and every game to be fair. OLB/DE Emmanuel Ogbah is another player who may have played his last game in Miami. His $17.7M contract is not going to happen, despite our hole at OLB with both Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips injured and questionable to play at the start of the ’24 season, along with the potential departure of OLB Andrew Van Ginkel.
Our draft haul is so important, and although meager in quantity, we absolutely need to hit on our first 2 picks. What I mean is not only do these players have to be good down the line, but we must get quality contributions NOW! We’ve been awful, just dreadful lately. RB De’Von Achane was the only bright spot, but already his durability is in question. CB Cam Smith, our first pick in RD2 couldn’t make any contribution at CB, despite a plethora of injuries at that position. Disheartening in the least! 2022 was no better. LB Channing Tindall RD3, WR Erik Ezukanma RD4, and then LB Cameron Goode and QB Skylar Thompson in RD 7. Zero, zilch, nada! That just has to change this season. We’ve traded to acquire lots of talent, never a prudent formula in the NFL. The best organizations like the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, both perennial playoff teams just don’t do that. Now we’re stuck in a cap forced window where we just have a year or so to succeed. We must hit on picks so that when that window closes, we don’t fall to the basement of the AFC and spend a decade digging ourselves out. Just to reiterate something here, if we give Tua a contract now, it would almost certainly be in the neighborhood of $45-50 per year. If he plays so well this year in 2024, and say takes us to the Super Bowl, maybe he gets $55-60M? Well worth the gamble in my opinion. On the other hand, if he plays worse, the team regresses, or he gets injured, while also unfortunate, we’ll have made the right choice.
GO DOLPHINS!!!
Finsmob Unleashed 
Tua wasn’t the only one who failed on offense. If Tyrek doesn’t drop what would have been a TD vs Buffalo. 2 plays later if Chase Claypool runs the correct route instead of causing an int. If Tyreek doesn’t fumble against KC. If Tyreek catches the TD against Baltimore. It takes more than just one player to lose. We are all feeling frustrated. We all wanted Tua to have that moment to take us to the next level. The truth is wasn’t just him. He is 25. He led the league in many categories over the last 2 seasons. There is no reason to suspect that he won’t again. He is gotten better every season and the odds are he will have his moment as he gets more opportunities
^
^
mf13ss says:
January 22, 2024 at 10:13 pm
Reposting, for those who didn’t click on Travis Wingfield’s tweet above…
Travis Wingfield
@WingfieldNFL
The Dolphins offense had just 2 players exceed 90% of the snaps – Tua Tagovailoa (95%) and Austin Jackson (90%).
The 3rd and 4th highest snap-takers: Liam Eichenberg (74%) and Durham Smythe (71%).
Tyreek Hill was 5th at 63%, then another big drop off to the 6th-highest snap-taker — Lester Cotton at 56%.
Miami only had 9 players exceed 50% of the offensive workload, only 6 of which were opening day starters.
And it wasn’t even the most-injured side of the ball lol.
MM recently said a receiving threat at TE is part of the next install. They couldn’t address everything this offseason. Gesicki is one dimensional and would barely see the field in our offense. He’s not a good fit.
I’m not sure we can get that TE via the Draft this year. Would have been nice to have had a 3rd round pick this year (AND a 1st rounder last year), STEVIE ROSS! 😡
We go from a 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder to a bloody 5th rounder this Draft class. SMH
Remember when there was a time we amateur draftniks treated 5th round and on prospects as camp fodder? We all know you can find good football players in many different ways. Maybe not a high percentage at QB, but we’ve seen a lot of it at other positions.
As a fan I root for my team and hope they have a plan. I still believe in this current regime and core players.
I’ll take 20-14 and two playoff appearances the last two seasons over the opposite of what we were doing for many years prior.
M13, have you noticed this entire season we’ve seen very little of Stephen Ross? I think people got in his ear and said stay out of it. Let football people do their thing and you just pay for stuff. 🤣
Sounds like Van Ginkel wants to come back. Hope we have some cash to keep him
Omar was talking about Terron possibly retiring. He said that will destroy our cap. He said we’ll be responsible for about $18M if he retires. I don’t quite understand how all that works, but it won’t be a good thing. If he plays, we pay him $14.2M
We pay him 14m
But his cap hit is 20m under contract
And his dead cap is 24m for 2024
If a player retires it’s treated the same as a player cut
And when he retires is as significant
So if he retires or is cut after 6/1 his bonus funds are spread out for the remainder of his contract instead of hitting the cap this season
Most of that is negative for our cap
His cap hit goes up by 4m if he retires bc that is the dead cap hit
But there is one wrinkle to retirement Omar might noIt be considering:
The “Barry Sanders rule”
Sanders had to pay back a 6th of his bonus when he retires during his contract
He retired before the 6th and final year
He was ordered to do so by an arbitrator
So when a player retires before his contract ends, he may be ordered to pay back the bonus which does not count against the cap
I think armstead’s bonus was 30M
And he played 2 of 5 years
So he might have to pay back 18m and give us 18m min in cap relief
If my numbers are right
If that’s true then his cap hit goes from 20m if he doesn’t retire
To 6m if he doesn’t retire
So that’s good for us
Not sure if I got the bonus right
Not sure when he retires (pre 6/1 or not)
And not sure about an arbitrators decision which is hard to predict
But it might give us cap space
And even if it doesn’t the difference between his cap hit if he pays and if he retires is 4M – so it’s not a huge hit
If that’s true then his cap hit goes from 20m if he doesn’t retire
To 6m if he doesn’t retire
———-
??? I still think I got what you were saying
It should say
6m if he does retire
That’s also a big guess on my part
It means the a of 30M he received when he signed is all subject to be treated like a bonus
And an arbitrator rules in dolphins favor that they get 2/3rds back bc he retired
And like any dispute, the two sides can probably meet in the middle
Some are talking about a pass catching TE who can block. This is the guy for me at #156.
I keep mocking him to us in the 5th round. Just kinda makes sense
Same
If I was Armstead and my retirement meant I might have to pay back 18m
I probably wouldn’t retire
That’s actually income from 2022. He a;ready paid taxes on it. Now he’s gonna lose it?
So my guess is armstead sticks with us for 2024 and then i tk thee may be an out without penalty to either side next off-season
Also
I think we need to add an OT whether or not armstead retires
If he doesn’t retire he will have one foot out the door
Probabky high likelihood he misses a lot of games on 2024
Definitely
Tankathon’s latest 3 round mock has us taking:
#21 OT/IOL Graham Barton
#55 TE Ja’Tavion Sanders
Barton is a stud. Played last 2 years at LT but also played at LG and started at center as a freshman.
M13 brought him up before. He’s got great size at 6’4 243 and projects to run around a 4.6, maybe below with prep for the combine and/or pro day. Sanders is a threat in the passing game. I just didn’t want to use a 2nd on a TE. But if they think he will be that good then I am all for it. He should also be a decent blocker coming out of Steve Sarkisian’s offense.
Sanders is being hyped a lot. He will be the 2nd TE drafted I would rather get Holker in the 5th.
I feel like everyone changes the discussion. It’s not a matter of whether every loss is Tua’s fault. He doesn’t play well against good teams. You want to pick a play here and there where one of our stars fuck up, that’s fine, as long as you can see the one constant, Tua played poorly in 12 of 15 games against good teams. As long as we can all understand that this is a problem, I’m good.
I’m with you on the subject
The decision is whether you want to commit to Tua long term or not
Not whether he’s to blame or there are other areas we can improve upon
He played like shit in most of those games and towards the end of the season
It doesn’t matter if there were others people who didn’t play well
The questions I think need to be answered are:
1. Was his play based on design flaw in the offense
2. Is that design based on physical limitations
3. Can it be corrected?
4. Was it just a maturity issue a- can he get better?
5. Is this his ceiling?
There’s a good argument that maybe if MM believed he wouldn’t have time to throw with the OL injuries and issues – we designed a quick throwing offense and then we couldn’t adjust when defenses adjusted
And there is a good argument to beleive the offense was built that was based on Tua’s arm
If it can’t be improved upon why commit to Tua long term
If you can’t answer the question with certainty to I think it also presents the same issue. What commit long term if you don’t know?
Again – I’m gonna say this over and over again. When you talk about the QB position, people get defensive
Talking about other mistakes people isn’t going to get us better
Tyrese Hill is the best WR in the nfl. We can’t improve even if we tried.
Mistakes happen
But limitations to a player or an offense are not something that gets better simply by trying again
At the very least, thanks for getting where I’m coming from and not saying it’s someone else’s fault, or he’s the best QB we’ve had in 20 years. That’s a low bar, I want better.
What the pig said. When he starts going long form, I start hoping Colonpokey will pop up. 😎
He is always here…
in our hearts and our butts…
So who is the best kicker in this years draft? (It gals me to pay dead cap money on a kicker, but Sanders is WAY over paid and needs to go. We would still save on the cap even with the dead money.
Some moron on PhinPhanatic just wrote an article about how he is safe and has earned his contract. As I said, A MORON wrote the article.
The Iowa punter is a possible all pro player. How high do you draft a punter? Come on…I’ve seen the jerseys. Lol
top punter? 5th round.
I’m not spending any picks on ST’s. Not when we are out our 3rd and 4th round picks. There are always F/A to sign who won’t even affect your top 51 cap or just barely.
Rock
I would rather just bring in a bunch of undrafted pr certain free agents at punter
The draft capital is pretty scarce this year
Those day 3 picks might be a TE, depth at OL, DBs, a RB
If we had 3rd and 4th round picks, I might feel differently
But right now, I’m treating the 5th rounder as a place I can make up for not having a 3rd or 4th round pick
I was just answering the question as it was posed. What is the most I would pay for a punter I agree we don’t use the draft pick on a punter when you only have four draft picks
But if a really good punter was sitting there, and I have eight or nine draft picks as high as I would go, would be fifth round.
Mike E. says:
January 23, 2024 at 2:18 pm
At the very least, thanks for getting where I’m coming from and not saying it’s someone else’s fault, or he’s the best QB we’ve had in 20 years. That’s a low bar, I want better.
————
How do ya propose we do better, though? NOT saying it can’t be done, but unless you’re willing to trade multiple Draft classes in order to move up to the top of the Draft, chances aren’t in our favor, as we currently sit @ R1P21 in the ’24 Draft.
Just ask any of a multitude of teams who’ve tried to do that over the last two decades how its worked out for them… the burn rate is extraordinary, truly. And if ya swing and miss in doing so, it puts your franchise back by YEARS.
We went ‘all-in’, thus we’ve made our bed.
Mike E, do ya REALLY think Coach McDaniel is about to throw Tua to the wolves after leading the NFL in passing yards and a top-5 finisher in every QB stat? I’m sorry, my friend… that’s not going to happen in ’24, so long as he’s HC.
If you can offer a viable plan B to Tua, I’ll kindly listen… as ALWAYS. 🙂
I dont think there’s a viable plan b at the moment
I dont think Mike is saying trade him now
I know I’m not
The question is whether we should commit to him for another 5 years
If we commit to him this offseason, we may deprive ourselves from a viable plan b for 5 years
I hear both of you, Pigster and Mike E. It’s always a matter of risk/reward when making these kinds of decisions. For my money? I’d say Tua’s worth the risk.
And we don’t HAVE TO offer him a new contract in the here and now, thus allowing him to play on the 5th-year we extended him to.
There are only two matters in allowing him to play on his 5th-year contract…
1) There will be no cap-flexibility. Conversely, if we sign him to a new contract now, we can make the contract cap-friendly to sign more players or a STUD FA
2) Ya run the risk of alienating Tua. By the same token, ya might get the best out of Tua. Maybe it’s a wash, but I wouldn’t want to alienate our franchise QB
Truth be told
I think it’s right on the line of whether he’s worth the risk or not
But I agree – that’s essentially the balancing we are doing, risk v reward
Will we get a QB better than Tua by going back into the QB market?
I think the likelihood of that is slim
And I’m basing that slim like hood on decades of not achieving it before
Also, I just don’t know the answer as to whether the offensive shortcomings are a result of his limitations or not – but I do believe the coaches know that. They aren’t guessing – they designed the offense. They know why it produced what it produced late in the year and what defenses people were playing against us
I’m just leaning to not committing to Tua long term bc of all these questions
Talking about Sanders, what about Keion Crossen? Why pay a backup CB who plays ST 3.2 mil. He will have no dead cap hit. At this point, even though he missed last season, he will be nothing more than a career backup and ST. Not worth 3.3 mil. Bye bye
I mean 3.2
Good to hear AVG wants to stay in Miami. We need him.
He had a career year under Vic Fangio… who personally requested that AVG sign with us as FA this past offseason.
WINNING! 🙂
Agreed
Rock,
I was kind of joking but not. Iowa’s offense was so bad that we punted a lot. But, our punter Taylor has a great leg. Control needs to be better. Potential is there to be really good, if he can start dropping darts inside the 10.
“ Stats are for losers”
I truly don’t see how we get around it, with the looming retirement of T-Stead: we’re going to have to draft a LT @ R1P21. JMO
And to set up for a future (with or without Tua), the LT position is paramount. God forbid Tua gets injured, a right-handed QB is coming in.
Thus, we can’t treat the LT position as the RT position, just because Tua is a southpaw.
What’s more, teams increasingly have decent pass-rushers on both sides to tangle with.
AVG has had 3 somewhat similarly okay seasons. 70 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT would be a top season for him. Are folks thinking he’s more than that and being held back by snap count? I mean I think he has stepped up nicely but am I missing something?
***
He’s a guy I try to sign, but I’m not gonna get crazy or nothing. He had a couple good games, but he kinda disappeared over the past 10 games or so.
Not thinking he gets a massive contract, but he’s a good football player.
Phillips and Chubb are not going to be ready to play for at least the first month of next season. Maybe more.
M – Sorry bud, at work. I didn’t say it was going to be easy, but keep drafting until you hit. My main focus though is not giving Tua a big contract now, I let him play out his 5th year and see what he does. If he still can’t beat the good teams and/or gets injured, I think you have your answer to draft a QB in ’25.
Got ya, bud. Have a good rest of your shift, man!
My First Ever MikeE Mock Draft:
Had to use a different simulator so I could trade players on the roster. They still haven’t updated the correct draft order. They may be waiting until after the SB when the order will be final.
MikeE traded Tua to the Giants for 2024 picks #6 and #107 (top of 4th) and a 2025 4th.
PICK: 6 RND: 1 Jayden DANIELS QB LSU
PICK: 22 RND: 1 Graham BARTON OT Duke
PICK: 54 RND: 2 Xavier WORTHY WR Texas
PICK: 107 RND: 4 Jaheim BELL TE Florida State
PICK: 159 RND: 5 Curtis JACOBS LB Penn State
PICK: 200 RND: 6 Gabe HALL DL Baylor
PICK: 243 RND: 7 Maurice SMITH C Florida State
All fun but I really hope the Pats don’t draft Daniels.
BB Mike,
According to PFF college, Ja’Tavion Sanders gave up more sacks (3) than any other TE this past season… regardless of freshman, sophomore, junior, or senior status.
Yeah… we’re NOT drafting him! He’s another Gesicki-type: a WR in a TE’s body.
I WAS very high on Sanders(!), but not now. I appreciate the nod you gave to me earlier: RESPECT, man!
If a TE cannot block? We will not knock (on your door).
I agree.
This is actually a good draft for TE. Especially on day 3. Not a lot of special playmaking TE’s but big blockers who can catch and move the chains. Not too many who can get YAC though.
We might target a FA TE that is the fit we’re looking for. He doesn’t have to be amazing but more of a threat as a receiver than Smythe and Hill.
Gesicki is available. lol
I actually think Amerstead probably won’t retire after he has spoken to “his people “
If I am right about the “Sanders Rule” and it causes him to pay back 18 million or even a few million of the bonus he received, my guess is, he will play to avoid that
I would
But just the fact that he is contemplating retirement at all kind of indicates that he has one foot out of the door
And I don’t blame him with his body breaking down
It’s probably not ideal to have your LT only staying for one more year to avoid paying back his bonus money
So I’m looking hard at OTs this draft
If we are going to stick with Tua and sign him long term
We are going to have to tweek the offense so that he isn’t throwing in 2 seconds
And that means we need a more reliable OL
On the discussion of whether to extend Tua now or wait, you have to figure in that if you pay him later, you will pay him more. That is the nature of the business every year the quarterbacks get paid more. so if you wait, you will pay him more. That, and there is no back up plan if we do not extend him.
So all that being said, extend him now.
How does a team cut a young quarterback, who is at the top of the stats board and replace him with less and explain that to the fans. They will lose season-ticket holders in droves if they did that.
It’s true if you pay him a year from now instead of now it will be for more $
But if you don’t commit to him now and you decide next offseason you don’t want him, then you aren’t paying him at all, much less more
Not committing to him this offseason gives us an option we don’t have if we extend him this offseason
Once we sign him this offseason – he’s probably or QB through 2030
Many a bachelor has faced a similar decision. You have to shit or get off the pot. You can’t go steady forever.
if the coaches don’t know after four years, then get off the pot. I think the coaches believe.
After a full season of effusive praise, how can Mike McDaniel stand at the podium and explain that one? They have talked themselves into a corner
Fuck the optics. Did it look bad that we made Christian Wilkins play on his 5th year? Do what’s right for the team long term, not just how it looks now
Rock – I think the most Tua would get if we don’t extend him now and he has an amazing season and goes to the Super Bowl is probably $10M per season more than it would be now, which is $45-50M. Well worth the risk, because I don’t know if I believe he’s capable of doing it
His value is 45-50 NOW despite your angst
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/tua-tagovailoa-47598/market-value/
(just the first one I grabbed, they all say the same approximation)
so you are now talking 60 mil to wait? or do you reevaluate your up-charge for waiting a year?
Unless you trade him or draft a guy in the middle of the first this year and then release him. Are you going with Skylar?
fing typing from my phone, touched the screen and a paragraph got deleted.
in short my question was what’s the plan then? blow it up next year if Tua is only “Play off good”?
He gets his Brinks truck this offseason
I said he’d get $45-50M now. I said $10M more if he has an amazing season
OMG he does! LOL
Ha! 🤣
Rock – why is it blow it up just because you go in a different direction at QB? What if Tua did retire like so many fans and commentators thought he should? Would we be blowing it up when we drafted a QB then? It’s just one position
Because they are “all in” with top salaries for a small percent of the roster that is not sustainable. “Blah blah the cap if flexible” no, not that much. The window is closing When there is 25 % turn over in a normal nfl season there will have to be much higher % soon. That is if they don’t want to F the future and extend all the huge contracts again.
destroying future year caps.
Yes they’re trying to seize the moment. We know that.
They want to sieze it but they might not have the QB to do it. The window doesn’t close if you draft a RD1 QB in 2025
If you know it Tim, then I shouldn’t have to explain it. But I was answering Mike sooo
I am saying again, that in my stink-ass opinion, perhaps bias affirmation, Grier screwed the pooch with his all in move and missed.
I think this leads to him going more in (throwing the car keys in the pot) by extending Tua, which was what the response was. But you know that. you just said so.
This is the window
You guys are funny. Tua made it through the season playing in bubble wrap. He takes the bubble wrap off next season, you know he’s probably getting hurt. We’re drafting a QB that way too. If he plays in bubble wrap next season, we’re not going anywhere anyway. You can’t play like that and win
Brady won 7 SBs playing with bubble wrap on
As much as it pains me to say this, Tua isn’t Brady, and MM isn’t Belichick
He is not yet but there is lots of similarities in their game and physically
Tua is the opposite of Brady. Brady was his best in the big games, Tua shrinks like a frightened turtle
I hate Brady, but he was HIM when he started. He worked his ass off by all accounts to become HIM.
**wasn’t HIM
if you go by all the previously stated (in the public opinion) hurtles that Tua would have to overcome to be successful he checked all the boxes.
He stayed healthy through 18 games
He paced the league in all the stats the entire season
He just made it look awkward, that’s all
Like it was posted above, if certain playmakers made plays in certain moments this year (on well placed plays from Tua) we would have won 4 more games. Or at least been in them because the butterfly effect says that other game situations after those plays would change, but still he played well enough if those other player had caught the passes to have gotten the #1 seed.
Now the bar is moved again. He doesn’t have “It”. Man I wish there was an “It” detector that was reliable.
Like I said, bubble wrap. He didn’t put his body on the line like the QB’s who are still playing and were playing this past weekend
2-13 against winning teams is a pretty damn good “it” detector
His numbers are better than that. His divisional record having never lost to the Jets and Patriots. Now if he can start beating the Bills
Oops, 3 – 12 🙃
Ken – yeah, Tua and Brady are the same. Brady had 4 division titles in his first 5 seasons. So similar
But I think it’s too late anyway regardless. It’s going to be blown up again here in few years, MM will coach some other team to a SB and we will hire Harbough’s nephew as the next HC in the continued drought of playoff wins.
Just saying what’s happening. We’ll see if the plan works. Enjoy the ride. 🙂
Ken – you’re right, he’s 3-12 against winning teams, so they are different
6-14 vs playoff teams in his career. Still not great but not as bad as you make it out
Hang in there Mike E! Lol
One more year for Tua. We don’t have to sign him now, do we? If he’s got another gear, it’s time to see it. Isn’t that the benefit of the 5th year option on guys?
We do need to create cap space with a restructure.
Ken,
What are they restructuring? Isn’t the idea of these 5 year option deals that NFL teams wouldn’t be stuck paying QBs obscene amounts of money in the first few years without really knowing how they turn out and hamstringing the teams?
The rate for the fifth year is similar to the rate of a franchise player, Tua gets 25 mil next year and it’s all straight to the cap
On this date in 1983 the Dolphins won the “Mud Bowl” a playoff game against the Richard Todd led jets team featuring AJ Duhe’s three interceptions including a pick six.
I think we had two games that our last offensive play was a botched snap in games we were driving to either tie or go ahead late
son,
I became a Dolphins fan in 1982. Duhe is one of my favorite players of all time.
He was a lot of fun to watch
We had 6 losses (reg season)
2 were blow outs
2 end with bad snaps on 4th down
1 is Tenn ( mostly on the D)
I can’t remember the last so say 1 on Tua
Right?
son,
Do you think Tua is a QB that is going to give his teams a chance to win SBs? I think he’s the sort of QB you can win a SB with if everything else works out good, but he’s not the guy who’s gonna go win you some if stuff breaks down. It’s been 4 years….not just the last one. I don’t know. I guess a single SB win would be nice, but I’m a greedy old bastard, and I want like 8.
I don’t even count the Flores years, Tua’s first two seasons. There was no direction on offense.
Those years count. Flores knew we just didn’t want to believe it. Still don’t apparently
Flores changed OC and OL coaches all three years as a HC. He knew nothing about running an offense.
We’ve been one of the top offenses under MM. Big difference.
Ken – This is from Poupart’s article
“Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins have a 3-12 record against playoff opponents, including their two playoff losses.”
That’s not only bad, it’s terrifying. How do you give a QB that does this big money? Well, we’re the Miami Dolphins and we’ve been fucking things up for a long time, so I guess that’s the answer.
Think about it in this context. We didn’t give Tua a contract and we took the 5th year option. We found out he could remain healthy by never putting himself in danger and he could whup the lesser teams, but at least for this season, we were only able to beat one team with a winning record, and we needed 5 FG’s to do so. I know, great stats, led the league in passing yardage, but those games against quality teams have to give you major pause. I mean if you were drafting a QB and he played like shit against every good school, you would consider that a huge issue. Well, we’re in year 5, and he hasn’t done it yet? There is no indication that he’s capable of stepping up and playing to the level of competition.
I am not familiar with the article but according to Sporting News Tua is 6-14 in his career vs playoff teams. Also last time I checked the game vs Dallas was a win.
Last 2 seasons, Ravens, Bills and Cowboys. 3 wins
Randy – I’ll jump in this one for Sonny – NO!!! Most definitely NO!!! The weird thing is, he has a Head Coach that 100% supports him, coddles him, and he still can’t produce.
Buffalo Bills
2023 · 11-6-0
SIGNINGS
QB Shane Buechele was signed to a reserve/future contract.
RB Darrynton Evans was signed to a reserve/future contract.
——————
Bills got Evans back. BTW why aren’t we signing players to futures contracts?
Maybe we have no future? lol
We have BBM! Ergo we have a future Mike!
https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/team/transactions/_/name/mia/miami-dolphins
🙂
The Chargers and Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh are expected to meet again soon regarding the team’s head coaching vacancy, NFL Network Insiders Mike Garafolo reported. Harbaugh arrived in Los Angeles on Tuesday, per NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero.
Never mind. We signed our PS players to futures contracts.
CB Ethan Bonner
LB Quinton Bell
TE Tanner Conner
OT Ryan Hayes
OL Chasen Hines
DL Brandon Pili
WR Braylon Sanders
WR Anthony Schwartz
🍻
We wouldn’t need a play making TE if we just added WR Xavier Worthy to Hill and Waddle.
He’s 6’1 and might put up a 40 under 4.3. Some sights are projecting him to run a 4.29. As you can see, he is not just a straight line speed guy.
NICE!!!
I’ve heard a lot of chatter about Worthy, but never studied him. Excellent hand-catching in some of the plays above.
Ok, so Tua is our QB, then? I hope we continue to put pieces around him, so he can succeed. Should be an interesting draft.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/HeQPZCWKv5PAaEFe/?mibextid=sPqcTx
LMAO!
BBM,
I’d rather go OL than WR. There are only so many balls to go around. We need to shore up our interior protection and become a play action monster. That’s how you maximize Tua’s talents. Achane can be a really nice weapon. MM needs to get the ball into his hands more. He should most definitely be in your top 3 in targets/touches. Somebody is gonna get a favorable matchup. It’s up to Tua to make the right decision and get the ball out. He can do that with protection.
Oh, I agree 100%. It’s just that this WR class is ridiculous! This is a much better and deeper WR class than when Waddle and Devonta Smith were drafted. Actually I can’t remember a WR class this good in the draft.
Back to what you are saying, that is why I have been mocking LT/LG Graham Barton and center JPJ. Actually, Barton can also play center. He started there as a freshman.
You may never hear me say this again
But I would rather go OL than WR too
LOL, too bad. there are 8-10 first round worthy Samari’s this draft.
BBM,
Hard to say at this point. I’m not sure we know if they think Wynn showed enough to believe he’s the answer at LG. We also don’t know if Armstead or Williams is coming back or can stay healthy if they do. We could potentially be looking at coming up with answers at 3 positions. I’d guess they draft OT high and try to plug in more inside….but there are just a lot of unknowns right now.
Yes, very hard to say. Wynn would also have to be resigned.
These 3 WR’s will more than likely be there when we pick at #21. This is with 5 WR’s already being drafted ahead of #21.
Xavier Legette, 6’3 227 pounds, projected 40 – 4.29
Xavier Worthy, 6’1 178 pounds, projected 40 – 4.29
Try Franklin, 6’3 187 pounds, projected 40 – 4.35
Troy Franklin
Piggy finally realizes the army survives on the fat bellied cook rather than the flashy samurai! 🤙
lol
I was listening to Omar today and yesterday on WQAM, he’s in for Joe Rose. He thinks we need a physical receiver, either a WR or TE that will go get the ball and be able to run after the catch. We have enough speed at WR. We need a physical player
EZE fits the mold, just got injured this season.
A physical receiver that stays on the field. lol
2023 Tua vs the top-10 ranked Defenses, REGULAR SEASON
Tua lost to the #2 ranked Defense Chiefs
Tua beat the #3 ranked Defense Jets TWICE
Tua beat the #5 ranked Defense Cowboys
Tua beat the #7 ranked Defense Patriots TWICE
Tua lost to the #9 ranked Defense Bills TWICE
That’s a 5-3 record against top-10 Defenses
Projected, that’s a 10-6 record and playoff-worthy
And had it not been for the crazy, unfortunate ‘Reek fumble returned for a TD vs the Chiefs in Germany, Tua would have been 6-2 against top-10 Defenses in ’23… including a win against the #2 Defense and returning Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
That would suddenly morph Tua into a projected 12-4 against top-10 Defenses.
Where were the Jets and Pats offenses ranked? LOL
Doubtful! LOL
But therein lies what we need to be talking about: Tua’s success, not overall team (Defense and STs) success.
The so-called 3-12 record against winning teams is a misnomer, not indicative of what Tua had solely done.
Just realized this: every team in the AFC EAST had a top-10 Defense this season… is that a first for the AFC EAST?
Stej: #3
Patsies*: #7
Bills: #9
Phins: #10
I think Troy Fautanu and Graham Barton are very much alike.
Maybe Welker can work some magic with Anthony Schwartz this off season. He has world class speed. He ran a 4.26 at his pro day.
Schwartz just doesn’t seem to have ‘it’ to his game. I’ve watched his highlights since we signed him, and he doesn’t have wiggle, doesn’t turn on a dime (cutting), and seems to only move fast in a straight line. What’s more, his playing speed is much slower than his 4.26 40-time.
I hope for the best(!), but I don’t see it coming from Schwartz.
M13,
Sometimes an offense just has to match what the opposing offense is doing. It’s not just about beating the defense. Sometimes you gotta outduel the opposing offense.
WOAH!!!
Not sure how I feel about the departure of Fangio. For the most part I was underwhelmed by our D but not sure if that was him or injuries
I don’t know what to say or think about Fangio moving on…
I mean, it’s NOT GOOD, IMO
He took us from #18 in ’22 to #10 this season… DESPITE all of our injuries and a slow start.
Maybe we will get to see Cam Smith
Watch him be All-Pro
There were some rumblings early in the year that guys weren’t happy or digging it. Not sure if the guys fully bought in.
I started thinking that this might be the first year in long time that an entire coaching staff stayed in tact. Nope.
I hear ya, man.
We do have to draft better, can’t keep drafting guys who don’t see the field
100% agree
Man I was typing mine while you posted this
Cheers, Son!
🍺🍺🍺
I wonder if the Linebacker coach gets elevated, Campanile, I think he’s interviewed with the Giants about DC.
Randy says:
January 24, 2024 at 3:24 pm
M13,
Sometimes an offense just has to match what the opposing offense is doing. It’s not just about beating the defense. Sometimes you gotta outduel the opposing offense.
————
I cannot disagree, not one bit. BUT… does Tua actually suck? That’s what I’m hearing from many (no, not just here on the FMU).
Too many so-called “journalists” and pundits/analysts/prognosticators/shock-jocks have NO idea just how beat up our Offense was this season.
We truly limped into the Wildcard due to our injuries… and on BOTH sides of the ball.
Wow!
Wtf? Our defense was the best in the league for a 7 or 8 game stretch when we were fully healthy.
So now we get to start over on defensive scheme…again.
And we’re stuck with a QB that a lot of fans don’t think will ever get us past being an ‘also ran’ playoff team.
And we’re in cap hell and will likely have to let some good players go.
And we have a shortage of draft picks.
Gotta admit, not very confident in the direction of our team right now.
Maybe Fangio wants an HC job again.
WTF!! I keep posting stuff (without links or attachments) and the posts do not appear. When I retype the post it says “It appears you have already said that”
DOES IT NOW!! WELL IT DOESN’T APPEAR THAT THE POSTS ARE APPEARING!!!!
Why the FUCK does “Come join me” get filtered multiple times to the spam folder!!??
Cav, pretend this appeared in a reply to your post above
“Come join me”
I haven’t been in quite the same place you are, but I’m getting there, lol.
Fangio was like “I can’t understand what this freaking barista is saying” I’m out!
Now that’s funny!! 😂🤣😂🤣
Frank Smith will probably be gone next.
Not same way but offered a bigger gig.
Wow Fangio out. Not sure what to think about that. I do think our LB coach Anthony Campanile is a possibility. He interviewed for the job last year and he already knows our players. He’s considered to be a coach that is ready to be elevated.
Obviously Fangio’s scheme gets players hurt 😛
🤣
We set our franchise sack record with 56 but I think it was more to do with talent than scheme. We were mostly a 4 man rush with occasional blitzes. It wasn’t overly exotic or anything.
Rock, that’s happened to me with it appears you already said that for years. It’s a glitch. Change some of the words at the beginning and post again.
If we hire Staley,
It’s the identical scheme
Staley basically came up with Fangio and worked with him for years
I’m pretty sure that’s why Staley is the candidate
Yes
Randy
If there is one thing a pig doesn’t endorse, it’s a fat bellied cook
Jason Kelce doing his best CavKong impression
😂😂
Fangio gone: That’s quite a shock. Go fuck yourself in Philly, Vic.
This is obviously a huge step back. Not many DCs as good as Fangio and, as Cav mentioned, we already have a ton of issues starting this offseason so having another is far from ideal. We wanted to see if the offense could start winning big games, well now they’ll have to.
Same thing with keeping the scheme if we just promote Campinelle
Bri – Fangio is going to the Eagles?
If we bring in Brian Flores as DC, maybe Tua won’t mind playing on his 5th year option. lol
Jevon Hollands dad posted something on Twitter/x about fangio leaving being an upgrade, so…
He may have been disliked by some of the players
🤷♂️
At least Holland didn’t leave like MFFF. 🙂
Ramsey also made a disgruntled comment before the Cowboys game