The Jonnu and OBJ Effect

I was very against signing OBJ, but that was when the contract numbers were reportedly to be $12-15M per year. I can tell you for the sum we’re paying him, which will max out if Odell Beckham reaches every performance incentive, is $8.5M. Well done Dolphins! We brought in a battle tested, crafty wide receiver who at this point in his career, is less about blowing past people and more about knowing where to be, and making the clutch catch and helping his team. Let me say this though, some uninformed feel OBJ was the big offseason move but I believe picking up TE Jonnu Smith was the most important move this team made. I’ll spend the rest of this article outlining just how necessary acquiring both of these players was for the Miami Dolphins.

We’ve been dreaming about having a TE in Miami who is a legitimate receiving threat. We had TE Mike Gesicki, and we so strongly hoped he’d be that guy. He was capable of making some difficult catches, especially some one handed wonders, but what Mike Gesicki could never do was get open and beat coverage, and run after the catch. He was a long strider, and once he made the catch, lacked the power and tenacity to beat a defender and escape tackles, even by a much smaller defensive back. In 2024, enter Jonnu Smith. Let me preface this by saying Jonnu has had a very modest career so far, but this guy is trending up! Smith was not the starting TE, or the most targeted TE, as the Falcons had drafted TE Kyle Pitts 4th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. As it turns out though, Pitts only out-targeted Smith by 20, Pitts had 90 targets while Jonnu had 70, but the most telling stat is Jonnu Smith only had 3 less receptions than Pitts, and only 85 yards less receiving, Pitts 667 yards, Smith 582, and both TE’s had 3 TD’s.

I’m not going to disparage our current TE Durham Smythe, who I believe was always intended to be a 2nd TE, an able blocker to help with the run game as a blocker, and occasionally catch a pass here and there. Despite the revolving door of young, promising guys we’ve brought in behind Durham, he ends up the starter because he’s reliable, both in knowing where he needs to be, and even more paramount, his ability to block. Hunter Long, Julian Hill, Tanner Conner, Tyler Kroft, bring ’em on baby, and Smythe outlasted and outpaced all of them. This season there are some all hot about Jody Fortson, who backed up Travis Kelce in KC. Jonnu Smith with be the leading receiver at TE for the Dolphins, and then Durham Smythe will be next, and Smythe will remain the starter and get more snaps than Smith, but Smith will be crucial for us this season, and mostly be a huge help to QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Let me start this paragraph with this – NO MIAMI DOLPHINS TE CAUGHT A TD PASS IN 2023!! No typo, not one TD reception for ANY Dolphins TE. I’ll tell you that Jonnu Smith is going to change that! He had 3 TD’s last season, I boldly say he will double that this season. First off, Falcons QB only threw 12 TD’s last season, and RB Bijan Robinson had 4 of them. While Tua struggled last season in the red zone, I strongly feel that Jonnu Smith will be the elixir. It’s such a different dynamic here in this Miami Dolphins offense, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, even sprinkle in a little OBJ, I think Jonnu will feast here in this situation. Jonnu Smith caught 71% of his targets, while Kyle Pitts caught only 58%. He’s reliable, and has huge run after catch ability, something we haven’t had here at that position for far too long. Think of how much opposing defenses have to spend in numbers trying to defend Hill and Waddle, then add in OBJ, and you can just picture how Smith will be in single coverage with a LB or S, and how he can have his way with Tua’s accuracy and timing.

OK, now to the OBJ portion of this article. It’s not that either starting WR missed a lot of time, Jaylen Waddle missed 3 games, while it was nearly impossible to keep Tyreek Hill out of the lineup, he missed only 1 game. The problem though was that Tyreek was hurting, playing hurt, and he was compromised. Now props to Tyreek for battling through the injuries and taking the field, but the bigger problem was that the Dolphins really didn’t have a Plan B without Tyreek. The very first game Jaylen Waddle missed, the Dolphins obliterated the Denver Broncos 70-20, just covering the 48 point spread (Joking!). Where it really hurt the Dolphins was at the end of the season against both the Ravens and the Bills in Games 16 and 17. Let me let you in something pretty amazing. When Tyreek Hill says Tua is the most accurate QB, he ain’t lying! There were games this season where Hill caught an astounding 91% of his targets, and trust me, they weren’t screen passes, and I’m not talking 3 targets, I’m talking 11. In games where they were clicking, and there were a few, 6 to be exact, where Hill was targeted 74 times and he caught an amazing 58 of them. That’s over 78%, which if you don’t realize is practically absurd. The problem though with Hill hurting, and Waddle either OUT or also hurting, or both hurting, that number drops precipitously to 50% for Hill, and therein lies the problem. I think OBJ can step in and replace either Hill or Waddle for short stints without a significant dropoff. That’s so important to the way this offense functions. We must have 2 WR’s that threaten the defense.

What I’d like to see more of this season is a different wrinkle to our offense, something that suggests that our HC Mike McDaniel is evolving, and can use his personnel to better adapt to the opponent. I think he’s great offensive mind, and I think that will be something we see here in his 3rd season as Head Coach. I’d like to see some games where we go just go run heavy, and I think drafting RB Jaylen Wright will facilitate this. I love Raheem Mostert, but I was afraid to overuse him, and getting Wright, and more importantly, another Jaylen so no team could conceivably have more Jaylen, Jaelan, or Jalens than the Miami Dolphins. Seriously though, we can lean on Wright for carries, while you didn’t want to stretch Mostert too far, and couldn’t rely on a big workload for rookie sensation De’Von Achane. Maybe some 2 RB sets, and some 3 TE sets, or 6 OL sets, and just pound some teams. Apparently our run blocking should be better up the middle with new OC Aaron Brewer, and we already know we can run outside with any team, so it would be nice to give the little guys like Hill and Waddle a little rest and just run the ball over and through some defenses.

Anyway, very happy to have TE Jonnu Smith who was my favorite roster add, and then OBJ for the right price. Great signing, even if we were bidding against no one. Both of these players will have big value for us this season. As you know, not everything is sunshine and rainbows, and I hope what we’ve done for the defense is enough. Still very suspicious of that D-line, despite retaining Zach Sieler. Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins had a great dynamic, they fed off of each other, both on and off the field, but it’s on the field I’m afraid is what we’ll miss. If no one else on the D-line becomes a legitimate pass rush threat, and the OLB’s aren’t doing enough, you know Sieler will get a lot of attention, and that will limit his effectiveness. I know a lot of people have brought up Calais Campbell, including myself, and why not? Campbell at age 37 played 17 games, played 63% of the defensive snaps and added 6.5 sacks, 17 QB Hits and 10 tackles for loss. That’s probably more than everyone else not named Zach Sieler combined on our D-line. I say if we’re going for it, sign Calais Campbell!

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625 Responses to The Jonnu and OBJ Effect

  1. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    @DMRussini

    I’m not sure what’s crazier…the world’s No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler asking @JeffDarlington for help as he’s being detained or an officer asking Darlington “who was that we just arrested?”

  2. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Thanks Mike! To be fair, trailing in the last 5 minutes is a pretty obscure parameter, right? Was it one score in the last 5 minutes? a FG? TD?

  3. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    Is this really a congrats or a jab??

    —————-

    @NFL_DovKleiman

    Congratulations to Tyreek Hill and his wife Keeta, who announced they will soon welcome their first child. Hill currently has 10 children with 5 different baby mamas.

  4. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    @NFL_DovKleiman

    The #Panthers and #Patriots are the only two NFL teams to be underdogs in all 17 games this season, via @MonkeyTiltPlay

  5. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    LOL Kong, quite true. There’s a lot of missing necessary data to have any kind of picture of what’s involved in that.

    • ElephantRider's avatar ElephantRider says:

      He’s in the bottom of the league. IDK why that thing went back to 2000 tho. That is almost a completely different era.

  6. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Just finished impersonating Mike this morning, Sebastian Old Boys Softball😛

  7. boulderfinfan's avatar boulderfinfan says:

    So for sure 10-/27 for the fest?

  8. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    I’ve been reconsidering our W-L record, and if we have the misfortune of getting BOTH the annual Minshew Miracle game AND the Kyler Murray Statement Hame we could be 1-16 and miss the playoffs for the first time in years.

  9. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Just saw a video of the top-10 most overrated QBs in the NFL today. And of course, Tua made the list. Overall justification? Tua’s been in the league since ’20 and we have no playoff wins to date with him. Wha?

    Last time I checked, Tua has only played in ONE career playoff game… in -30 windchills in KC last season… and lost to who would become the eventual Super Bowl champs last season… KC.

    Friendly reminder: Tua would have beaten Mahomes and KC in Frankfurt last season had ‘Reek not had the freak fumble that was returned for a spectacular Defensive TD for KC.

    Another friendly reminder: had Kadarius Toney not lined up offside against the Bills in KC late last season, KC would have won in spectacular fashion and the Bills would have been knocked out of winning the AFC EAST. Meaning, we wouldn’t have had to play in KC with -30 windchills.

    THAT ONE GAME (our Wildcard loss to KC in -30 windchills, which NEVER should have been played to begin with) is what many are trying to judge Tua by. SMH

    • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

      Fug it, LET the rest of the league underestimate Tua. He WILL prove all of his naysayers wrong. He’s got a chip on his shoulder and he’s on a mission.

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      Not putting himself in position to win, then actually winning one is what they’re referring to

  10. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Albert Breer to Rich Eisen today on the Rich Eisen show (paraphrasing): Tua’s likely to be the next QB to get a contract, the sooner the better before another QB gets done, and us Phins prepared for it by allowing high priced FAs like Wilkins to walk. He’ll likely join the $50M/year club.

  11. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    LOL

  12. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    NEW BLOG UP!!!!

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