The run must continue! The Dolphins were able to stay alive this past Sunday defeating the visiting Las Vegas Raiders, 34-19. Currently sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins still have plenty of work to do to be considered a legitimate playoff contender, but we’re in ONE-WEEK-AT-A-TIME mode here. No reason to think ahead, just concentrate at the task ahead of you each week. This week our division rival New England Patriots come to Hard Rock and the Dolphins are a TD plus favorite. If last night’s gane is a wake up call to not look past ANY opponent, the red hot Pittsburgh Steelers, the previously 8-2 Steelers, were riding a 5 game win streak, and played in a snowstorm in Cleveland which is something the Steelers are quite comfortable playing in, but the Browns came to play and ended the 5 game win streak and dropped the Steelers 24-19. That could happen if the Dolphins aren’t prepared. A loss to the Patriots this weekend would likely be the death knell for the 2024 Dolphins season. We have no margin for error, especially playing at home, in a game we’re favored by a TD. You lose to Green Bay on Thanksgiving late in the evening in likely frigid Green Bay, that’s one thing, and that loss would also very much damage our chances. We’ve put ourselves in a position where just can’t afford to lose more than 1 game, so this Sunday just can’t be that one.
The Dolphins have been playing better on both sides of the ball, and the offense has been humming, despite having any kind of deep passing attack with 2 speedy WR’s in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The good news is we have finally started to use the TE as a receiver, and when we picked up TE Jonnu Smith, I was excited to finally have a receiving TE. It took a while to make him part of the passing game, but he truly is a weapon, and he’s getting more and more action each game. The run game has been keeping opposing defenses honest, but it hasn’t been great lately. The “bellcow” back has been De’Von Achane, and his dropoff in YPC is the first thing you notice. Last year Achane averaged 7.8 YPC, but with much higher usage and many more carries, Achane has managed only 4.3 YPC. He has done a lot of damage in the passing game though, and Achane leads the Dolphins with 46 receptions for 349 yards. This is all part of the Mike McDaniel offense that is taking what is given to them by opposing defenses, who continue to play the umbrella defense, 2 high safeties protecting against the deep ball. Tua has remained patient, hasn’t forced the ball at all, and we’ve been better for it. QB Tua Tagovailoa has completed 73% of his passes for 1443 yards, 9 TD’s and 4 INT’s. Considering he started the season with 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s after game 2, he’s thrown only 1 INT in the last 4 games against 7 TD’s. Ball security however, has been a concern for Tua with 5 fumbles, one very important one lost, the Arizona Cardinals “Fest” game which many of us here saw in person.
QB Tua Tagovailoa has a perfect 6-0 record against the Patriots, with and without Bill Belichick. He’s going to need to keep that going this week. The Patriots offense has been struggling, but it does appear that the Patriots have found their QB in 2024 1st RD pick (#3 overall), Drake Maye. So far in his rookie campaign, Maye has completed 126 of 189 pass attempts (66.7%) for 1236 yards, 9 TD’s and 6 INT’s. Besides RB Rhamondre Stevenson, this Patriots offense hasn’t much to look at. TE Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in receptions with 46 for 491 yards and 1 TD, and he is the most targeted receiver. WR’s Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne have had quiet seasons. There’s a reason why this Dolphins team, who has no business being a TD favorite any week, will be this Sunday. That being said, Mike McDaniel has to have his team ready for anything, and they need to take this game seriously and put this team away.
While the bizarre season’s continue for WR’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, they have been a little more involved in the passing game in the last couple of weeks. Despite that, neither receiver has yet to crack 500 yards, which is crazy considering Tyreek Hill was on pace for 2000 last year. There’s a good chance that these 2 receivers combined won’t crack 2000, but the stats don’t matter, winning is ALL that matters, and this team has a lot of winning to do the next 7 weeks! RB Raheem Mostert has struggled to hold onto the football and that has elevated the carries that RB De’Von Achane gets. Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright each have less than half the carries Achane has (Mostert 58), (Wright 52) whole Achane has 122 carries. Wright, in particular, has been stymied as of late, but to be fair, he’s getting one or two carries a drive, and it’s hard for RB’s to get into a rhythm like that. One important factor is FB Alec Ingold has been OUT, and he’s trying his best to play this weekend. When Ingold is in there as a lead blocker, the run game is much better. TE Julian Hill has been getting lots of blocking assignments with mixed results. We definitely miss Ingold.
On defense, rookie OLB Chop Robinson has been lining up wide to give him more space between himself and the tackle and it has paid dividends. His quick burst forces the tackle to commit one way or the other from a distance and this has allowed Chop to change his path. When he was lined up closer to the tackle, far too often he got engulfed. DE Zach Sieler has been awesome since returning from his eye injury. ILB Anthony Walker has made a difference replacing ILB David Long. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is a load and will be a good test for our defense. He’s a physical runner that goes strictly north/south, but a difficult guy to bring down, especially when he has a head of steam. ILB Anthony Walker will probably be covering TE Hunter Henry a good part of the day, but we need to tackle well on Sunday. The defense is currently 15th in the NFL in points allowed at 22.1, but you can see how much better this defense is with DE Zach Sieler back. Sieler and DE Calais Campbell have been awesome, they make this defense go. Major props to OLB/DE Emmanuel Ogbah who is right behind Siler and Campbell in QB hits, Sieler has 8, Campbell 7 and Ogbah 6. Campbell has 4 sacks and leads the Dolphins followed by Sieler and Ogbah with 3 each. Jalen Ramsey continues his excellent playh, but with CB Kendall Fuller OUT with a concussion, the CB spot opposite Ramsey has been a revolving door with CB’s Kader Kohou, Storm Duck and Cam Smith. I would love Cam Smith to step up and take that spot, but he hasn’t been able to do that as of yet.
I’m interested to see if the Patriots, who have watched the Dolphins perform well using a ball control offense, running the ball and a short passing game try to make the Dolphins beat them deep, something they haven’t done in weeks, with the exception of the Jonnu Smith 57 yard TD which was a coverage breakdown by the Raiders D. The Dolphins held the ball for 33 minutes and put on a master class of ball control. The Dolphins had 2 TD drives possessing the ball over 8 minutes, another drive where they had the ball for 7:47 and scored a TD and one more where they had the ball for 5:47 and scored a TD. Long, successful drives are a marvel to watch, and in the long run, is better for our team, mostly the defense, because it gives them time to rest. While I loved our quick strike offense, this version of the offense is the one you win playoff games and bad weather games with, so keep that in mind.
GO DOLPHINS!!!
Finsmob Unleashed 
I’m researching blocking metrics from the TE position for this season. Man… Durham Smythe has fallen off a cliff, and that was once his bread-n-butter. Julian Hill is actually doing better, but just barely.
We’ve got to get a legit blocking TE once again… and hopefully someone who can additionally catch the ball and run.
Jalin Conyers, TE, Texas Tech, seems to fit the bill.
BB Mike, I THOUGHT I recalled you talking about Conyers recently!
bailbondmike says:
November 17, 2024 at 9:05 pm
Here’s a possible 7th round or UDFA TE we could think about. Texas Tech senior TE Jalin Conyers, 6’4, 265 pounds, 4.68 forty. Although he just an average blocker.
According to PFF college, Conyers is one of the best blocking TEs in the nation, Brother.
Now that’s PFF… I trust your eyes and mine more than PFF. However, over 4 years at TE, Conyers has only given up 2 sacks, 1 hit, and 2 hurries over 1,123 snaps.
I think/hope he’s legit at blocking, though I’ve yet to watch his tape.
Brian,
I truly love Tyler Warren as you do(!), but to draft him in the 2nd round with SO many other holes would seem like a luxary pick. We can’t afford to do as much, sadly.
But hey, lots of things could change between now and Draft day! To be sure, Tyler Warren is on my ‘man-crush’ list, Bro!!!
In fact, there really IS so much that could change between now and Draft day ’25. God forbid Tua gets another concussion this season, we could very well be going QB in round 1… heck, we very well might be going QB in round 1 regardless, knowing that Tua’s next concussion could possibly end his career.
My priorities right now, in no particular order: backup/future starter QB, blocking TE, legit starters at both LG and RG, DT, MLB/ILB, boundary CB, and S.
If we release/trade Chubb in the offseason, then EDGE becomes another early target. And if Chris Grier is retained, you KNOW that WR will be another early target… especially with ‘Reek and ‘Da Penguin eating so much cap right now.
We’ll see what happens…
Do you guys think the team will spend draft capital on guards? They don’t seem that worried about the position.
Well, we have no, zero, guards on the roster in 2025. They are all free agents. Only option is to resign them all on the cheap due to cap issues or draft.
I am thankful that I found you guys.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Aw shucks Rock. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well
^^
Happy Thanksgiving, Rock.
M13, I don’t think TE is a luxury pick. Hill and Smythe are not getting it done like last year. Jannu is only under contract 1 more year. Having Tyler Warren and Jannu on the field at the same time would be nice.
We also don’t need to target a QB high in the draft. I think we should target Marcus Mariota as a vet backup then draft a QB on day 3. Mariota made 6 mil with Commanders this year. That’s affordable.
an Rapoport
Former #Giants QB Daniel Jones plans to sign with the #Vikings practice squad, after having cleared waivers, per me, @TomPelissero and @CameronWolfe.
One man’s trash…
It would also be nice if they can find the money to resign either ILB Anthony Walker or Dodson or both. Both would eliminate that draft “need”.
Bobby Shouse
Tua Tagovailoa has won AFC Offensive Player of the Week
Great. Now do it again
and again, and again, until we make the playoffs
we’ve seen this script before though, win a bunch of games in a row at the end of the season, only to lose a game we should’ve won, Denver one year Tenn last year
while the winning is happening everything is rainbows and lollipops, until it isn’t (we lose one game)
maybe we shouldn’t bitch, IDK
after watching the QBs after Marino, including/not including Tannehill, Tua sometimes seems like a Godsend
@schadjoe
In terms of yards per game through first 12 weeks, Anthony Weaver’s unit is 2nd-best Dolphins defense of last 20 years
again a tainted stat, because of how we played on O while Tua was out
I’m not knocking it, just putting it into perspective
I like Weaver a lot, and think he’s done a great job, his personality fits better than MM as an HC and wish the 2 would reverse rolls HC/Coordinator
While Tua was out the defense had to defend more. If anything, that supports the stat.
Opposing Os didn’t have to take many chances, they could be conservative and not turn the ball over
Forecast for game tomorrow night shows 27 degrees and 10mph wind at kickoff. Then 25 degrees and 11mph by the end of the game.
I wonder if they make RB Wilson available for this game. Mostert has been having a fumble issue amongst other things.
Mostert hasn’t been the same since the chest injury.
Let’s hope Chop continues to ascend. It changes everything on defense when you have a defender playing like him.
I think we need to find a future replacement for Mostert this draft. I am still high on RB “Woody” Marks from USC. He looks like he would be a good fit.
As a day 3 pick
I think Wright takes over for him. Along with Achane that will likely be our duo next year.
Tyus Bowser, Kendall Fuller and Anthony Walker are all OUT
Terron Armstead is QUESTIONABLE
bailbondmike
says:
November 27, 2024 at 10:29 am
M13, I don’t think TE is a luxury pick. Hill and Smythe are not getting it done like last year. Jannu is only under contract 1 more year. Having Tyler Warren and Jannu on the field at the same time would be nice.
——————
I suppose what I’m trying to say is that using a top pick on a TE may be foolish… only from the standpoint of seeing all the other voids/holes we have on the team. JMO, but I believe we could find a decent TE(s) on day 3… and we’re probably going to extend Jonnu ASAP.
Yeah, it wouldn’t suck to add Tyler Warren! However, I feel like having both Jonnu and Warren would be overkill at the position. Now if we have no plans to extend Jonnu (which would be foolish, IMO, now that we’ve finally learned how to use him), I could understand drafting Warren early.
Warren is already on my ‘man-crush’ list, to be sure! Every year I have a guy on my ‘man-crush’ list that even I wouldn’t draft… due to needs, overkill factors at a position, and system fits… just for example.
Just trying to explain my rationale for why I would pass on ANY TE on day 2, and it is JMO. But believe me, I won’t lose any sleep if we end up drafting Tyler Warren, either! 🙂
bailbondmike
says:
November 27, 2024 at 10:34 am
We also don’t need to target a QB high in the draft. I think we should target Marcus Mariota as a vet backup then draft a QB on day 3. Mariota made 6 mil with Commanders this year. That’s affordable.
—————
Again, Tua’s next concussion could be his last. The mere risk of losing him (talking career-ending) may warrant taking a QB between days 1 and 2 as an insurance policy for the future… or so I had thought. However, the more I think about it, we’re looking for a QB who can fit Coach McD’s system… one who can throw with anticipation, accuracy, and confidence. That guy might not be one of the big 5 QBs who will be taken on days 1 and 2.
So that being stated, perhaps I shouldn’t jump the gun in thinking we might need to draft a QB early… especially when we look at Brock Purdy (7th round QB, Shanahan/McDaniel’s system).
Marcus Mariota, huh? Hmmm… that’s not a bad idea! I think he’d fit nicely into McDaniel’s system to become Tua’s backup next season. Nevertheless, I feel we must find a QB via the Draft to develop for the future. Skyler ain’t it, nor is any other QB we’ve brought in recently.
I think I’d be happy with Dillon Gabriel on day 3 of the Draft as that developmental QB.
Interesting thought here… Tua, Mariota, and Gabriel all have a Hawaiian connection.
Another interesting thought… had we drafted Justin Herbert over Tua, then he, Mariota, and Gabriel would all be former Oregon Ducks.
I’m HAPPY we took Tua!!!
I would like to have that QB lineup also; Tua, Mariota, Gabriel.
Lol….position strategy or whatever it’s called…we have/had this TE weakness for as long as I can remember…lol…finally we have one and trying/need to find a second complete TE that isn’t on our team. jmo.
Don’t know what to tell you about the OL, but it seems we don’t care, and haven’t cared for years..
…a second complete TE doesn’t take away from OL
….from OL issues.
Jalin Conyers, TE, Texas Tech, seems to fit the bill!
It adds value to the OL, imo
Agreed, Krishna. Read up the page on how badly Smythe has fallen and Julian Hill just ain’t it.
Jonnu is the SHIT(!) and we definitely need to get another TE. But do we necessarily need to take one in the 2nd round with all of the other holes we have?
I saw that, but you must have missed my earlier post of me questioning if he was still on the team…lol
Jalin Conyers
As soon as I came across Jalin Conyers, I liked what I saw. Much of his skills come from being a good basketball player also.
Jaire Alexander has been ruled out by the Packers
good… GOOD! *in my Emperor’s voice*
Tim, we still need a good 3rd RB. Achane gets banged up a lot. Need a 3rd with similar skills to him and Wright so this offense doesn’t miss a beat when one goes down.
Looking at him in the 5th. We have 5 picks before that in the top 120.
I was talking about replacing Mostert next season. I don’t think him or Wilson will be back next season.
S Marcus Maye was claimed by the Chargers.
WR Romeo Doubs is out.
We will see our old RB Chris Brooks tomorrow night. He is the Packers #2 RB.
I think Wright and Achane can be a nice combo if they can stay healthy. Protection may suffer a bit.
Go Thundering Herd!
What’s this about? 😂
They were showing the replay of your game
Happy Thanksgiving….hopefully it’s happy all day long…lol
Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving folks!
Happy Thanksgiving! My daughter will be wearing all my old Dolphins’ gear she’s somehow ended up with over the years to ensure a win. She’s a Vikes fan but dislikes GB for some reason, so she’s in.
Happy Thanksgiving!
I will be thankful for a Phins win while I freeze at Lambeau tonight! 🥶
happy thanksgiving! Enjoy the day !
Happy Thanks…ah fuck it it’s game day
Happy Thanksgiving!
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NEW BLOG UP!!!!