In the O-line of Fire

We’ve already focused on the linebackers, and safeties, but today we go to the trenches, where the 300 pound behemoths lurk, the ones in the line of fire, whose sworn duty is to protect #17, the QB, Ryan Tannehill.

A lot of people point to the Dallas Cowboys as the blueprint for success for Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin. They point to what Jason Garrett did in his first full 3 years (8-8), and then to his breakout year last year with the Cowboys (12-4). Not that the Dolphins roster is structured exactly the same as the Dallas Cowboys at this juncture, but one could easily point to their 1st RD draft choice, OG Zack Martin as the move that enabled the Cowboys to be what they were last year. Martin solidified the O-line, and this allowed the Cowboys offense to perform on an entirely new level. LT Tyron Smith (1st RD ’11)) – LG Ronald Leary (UDFA ’12) – C Travis Frederick (1st RD ’13) – RG Zack Martin (1st RD ’14) – RT Doug Free (4th RD 2007) So you see, the Cowboys have used THREE 1st RD picks to out this excellent line together, along with a 4th RD pick, and UDFA.

The Dolphins line, if projected right now, with what we currently have on the roster, and assuming Brandon Albert is ready to start the season healthy is this . . . LT Branden Albert (1st RD ’08) – LG Billy Turner (3rd RD ’14) – Mike Pouncey (1st RD ’11) – RG Shelley Smith (6th RD ’10) – RT Ja’Wuan James (1st RD ’14). Billy Turner played in 2 games, and did not start either game. Shelley Smith played in 11 games, started 3. Both OG spots, at least as far as I’m concerned are question marks. If Albert is healthy, he’s our LT, Pouncey goes back to C, and Rookie standout Ja’Wuan James goes back to his natural RT spot. The question is, do we need to draft a G in the first RD? Not necessarily, but . . . . If La’el Collins is there at #14, and he likely will be, do you take him?

My reasoning behind why I might do it, is this. We all say we need the O-line fixed, because we were lousy at pass protection, and we couldn’t convert on short yardage plays. We also, unfortunately, don’t know if Branden Albert will actually be healthy enough to start game 1 of the ’15 season, so then not only do we have 2 holes to fill at both OG spots, but now we don’t have a LT either. My thought is that if Albert can’t go early, Ja’Wuan James once again mans the LT spot as he did after Albert went down, and La’el Collins plays the RT spot until Albert comes back. Once Albert is healthy, James goes to RT, and Collins plays RG. Collins is a fierce run blocker, and I think he would help immeasurably on all those short yardage conversions we’ve failed on the last couple of years, as well solidify the line as a pass blocker.

Let’s look at the options available in this years draft . . .

NCAA Football: Outback Bowl-Iowa vs Louisiana State
Brandon Scherff – OT Iowa 6’5” 320

The best OL prospect in the ’15 draft, Scherff will almost certainly be off the board before the Dolphins pick at #14, and most likely, in the top 5 picks. Scherff is real road grader, easily the best run blocker in this draft. He isn’t, however a great pass protector. He’s as powerful as they come, but he doesn’t always get his hands out on defenders, and doesn’t move laterally well, and may be forced to play either RT or even move inside to OG in the NFL.

NFL.com’s Lance Zeirlein rates him tops at 6.45, and clearly, his pass blocking is what keeps that grade down. He will likely be impressive at the combine, as he is a real gym rat and is a very impressive weight lifter, and his leg strength is tremenedous.

NFL comparison – Reilly Reiff

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Andrus Peat

Andrus Peat – OT Stanford 6’7” 316

I know, I know, never again should we take an OT from Stanford! Peat is not Jonathan Martin, so therefore, you have to look at him as an individual, and not from the school he comes from. Peat is most likely the 2nd highest rated OL on most boards, and NFL.com has him as #2.

As opposed to Jon Martin, Peat is a powerful run blocker, and a pretty good pass blocker as well. At LT, Peat struggles with speed rushers. He may, like Scherff, need to move to the right side as a RT in the NFL. NFL.com has him rated at 6.2

NFL comparison – Charles Spencer

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

La'el Collins 2

La’el Collins – OT LSU 6’5” 321

Collins is a brawler, a mean run blocking machine. He loves to intimidate opponents, and is a real finisher who plays to the whistle. Like all prospects, he has his struggles, and even though he played LT at LSU, he too will most likely have to play RT, or even move inside to OG in the NFL. I look at Collins, and think of all those short yardage plays we were pushed back. I also like that he’s a big insurance policy for us if Branden Albert isn’t ready, or even worse, if he has a setback. I know some guys say Jason Fox, or this guy, or that guy, but all of those guys didn’t help us last year, and we saw what Ja’Wuan James did last year, and look over to Dallas, and see what Zack Martin did. Sometimes, you get what you pay for. I’m not saying if we draft Collins we’re set for the next 10 years, but we might be. The main reason why I wont be opposed to another 1st RD OL, is because it’s a legitimate need. Yes, there are other OG’s in this draft who may suffice, or maybe even other OT’s, but I love the versatility and meanness that Collins brings.

NFL.com has Collins graded at at 6.16,the 3rd best OL, and most teams boards probably do as well.

NFL comparison – Maurkice Pouncey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JnwumY_QFM

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

TJ Clemmings

TJ Clemmings – OT Pitt 6’5” 309

Clemmings was possibly a top 20 lock before the Senior Bowl, but his stock may have dropped a bit, after struggling in some individual drills in practice. Regardless, he’s till probably top 5 on most boards.

Clemmings is a very athletic OL who really moves well. What may elevate him still is the fact that he may be the best true LT prospect in this draft. He has the speed, and athleticism to handle the speed rushers, and although he’s not overpowering, he delivers a jolting hand punch, and he plays with a mean streak, so he has potential. Like most prospects, he’s a work in progress.

NFL.com has him rated at 6.14

NFL comparison – Duane Brown

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NCAA Football: Furman at South Carolina

AJ Cann – OG South Carolina 6’4” 311

Cann is the first true guard prospect we’re looking at. Although some are projected to play G, Cann is a 4YR starter at G. Had the agility to be a LG prospect. He is a good drive blocker, but also is excellent at neutralizing the defender, and staying with blocks. One of his weaknesses is once he gets to the second level, he doesn’t always maintain control, and sometimes gets his weight too far forward in pass protection, which many prospects do.

He’s the highest rated OG on NFL.com at 6.0. Most likely to be a starter from day one.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ereck Flowers
Ereck Flowers – OT “The U” 6’6” 324

Flowers is a big boy, and plays with a nasty demeanor.  L

ike some of the other prospects I’ve discussed, he’s a great run blocker, but his pass blocking is what most likely insures he’s only a RT, and not LT prospect. Keep in mind though, he did play LT at Miami. He could probably start at RT, but would need work to be an NFL LT. He’s another OL that finishes his blocks in the run game. For those of you who want to improve Tannehill’s protection, not sure Flowers is the man. I await flak from D-Bolt about that!

NFL.com has Flowers rated at 5.97

NFL comparison – Anthony Davis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNa9nnHWn4E

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Laken Tomlinson

Laken Tomlinson – OG Duke 6’3” 330

4 year starter, and an intelligent player. Not a very athletic guard, but excellent in his pass blocking technique. Get this, he did not allow a sack in the last 2 years! Projecting to the NFL is the big issue, because although Tomlinson did very well on the college level, scouts think he might struggle with the speed in the NFL.

He’s rated at 5.6 on NFL.com

NFL comparison – Chris Watt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wq87hmfxai0

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ali Marpet

Ali Marpet – OG Hobart 6’4” 310

The real knock on Marpet is the level of competition he played against at Hobart (Div. III). He is, however, a very good OL. He was a 4YR starter at LT. Has good foot quickness and a strong leg drive. Technically sound blocker who can get lower than his opponent giving him better leverage. Looked great at the Senior Bowl, played with a chip to prove he belongs with the better competition. Most likely too short, both in height and arm length and will project better to OG.

NFL.com has him rated 5.45

NFL comparison – Eric Kush (Marpet says Justin Pugh)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siPei_ky9kU

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Cedric Ogbuehi

Cedric Ogbuehi – OT Texas A&M 6’5” 305

Very smooth athlete who moves well, good foot quickness. Is able to slide step well to meet opponent and maintains good balance. Ogbuehi’s achilles is his playing strength. While he moves well, he doesn’t have the power to beat more powerful opponents, he works hard to sustain blocks and uses his hands well. He played both OT and OG at A&M, and played both well, against stout competition.

He’s the 2nd highest rated OG on NFL.com at 5.9

NFL comparison – Eugene Monroe

If Ogbuehi hits the weight room for a year, he could turn out to be a great NFL player.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rob Havenstein

Rob Havenstein – OT Wisconsin 6’8” 333

Havenstein is a big, big dude. He’s probably going to have the longest arms at the combine, and at OT, that’s a real advantage. Moves better than expected for a guy his size. Excellent drive blocker who has good control at the second level, maintaining his balance and hitting targets. Obvious difficulties are he rarely gets lower than his opponent, and he has stiffness in his knees, which Doctors will undoubtedly look into thoroughly. He’s a 3 year starter, who most likely will have to play RT in the pros.

NFL.com rates him at 5.77

This entry was posted in Ask Mike, SCOUTING REPORTS. Bookmark the permalink.

354 Responses to In the O-line of Fire

  1. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    BIG UGLIES!
    I am NOT opposed to Drafting a very good offensive lineman In the first round to hopefully finally solidify our line. If we could have converted two or three 3rd down and shorts Or had one more second For several pass plays to develop last year We WOULD have been in the playoffs. I know if my aunt had testicles, She would be my uncle. I’m just saying a lot of our issues started with the offensive line And defensive line. Taking two or three big ugly is in the draft this year would not hurt my feelings

  2. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    As long as we can pick up an inside linebacker and safety And a big bodied wide receiver with good hands With the rest of the picks I will be happy

  3. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    Mike E,
    Nice article. No flack from me on Flowers, but do understand all the top tackle prospects struggled with “speed” edge rushers this year. That said I think we need to focus on the 3 OGS prospects in Cann, Tomlinson, & Marpet. These 3 are easily day 1 starters if we don’t land a Vet. They mention Tomlinson holding up against speed, but I’ll call BS on this. I watched a lot of Dukes games the last 2yrs & he was purely dominant. He goes to the senior bowl and pretty much dominates Shelton, who scouts marvel at his speed and athleticism. Those 3 players are plug and play starters.

  4. son of a son of a shula's avatar son of a son of a shula says:

    National Museum of the Marine Corps:
    Battle of Iwo Jima 70th Anniversary

    On this date, 70 years ago Marines stormed the beaches of Iwo Jima. The Marines fought for 36 days, sometimes inch by inch, to take the island.

    More than twice as many Marines died in combat on Iwo Jima than had been killed in all of World War I. Close to 7,000 Marines and sailors died and 20,000 were wounded. Additionally, twenty-seven Medals of Honor were awarded to Marines and sailors who fought in the battle, many posthumously.

    Semper Fidelis Marines!
    _____________________________________________
    My mother’s big brother was one of those Marines killed there. RIP Uncle Richard.

  5. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    Once again, I did a quick write on another undersold WR if you are interested:
    http://www.finsmob-exoduss.com/2015/02/20/deandre-smelter/

  6. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    Good job Mike E aka Chubby Chaser

  7. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    Dbolt

    Would you be interested in submitted anything for this site?

    • dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

      Once everything starts slowing dow, sure. I told Walker Id throw out some WR articles on non round 1 guys over @ FME. I can look at possibly looking at something else over here as you pretty much got the WE prospecrs covered etc.

      • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

        whatever works for you

        whenever you feel like you can, just submit it to our blog email.

        no pressure…we are producing a lot of original material here – but we always invite more

        and you always come up with stuff completelyoff my radar

  8. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: #LSU OT La’el Collins’ first 40 attempt a 5.13

  9. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    11′ hands are crazy big

    He can proababkty catch a football and a basketball at the same time….lol

  10. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    Off to Court

    will be reading those combine updates
    Catch up later humans

  11. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @TonyPauline: Tyler Kroft/TE/Rutgers strained his ankle during combine medicals as doctors twisted the joint too much. No 40 till pro-day.

  12. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: #Miami OL Ereck Flowers:
    40 yd – 5.32
    10 yd – 1.90

    Was also the bench rep champ at 37 reps.

  13. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: #Oregon OL Jake Fisher:
    40 yd – 5.05
    10 yd – 1.75

    6’6″, 306 lbs and he looks pretty athletic for a big guy.

  14. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: Hey-oh! RT @BryanDFischer: Shaq Thompson will work out at both linebacker AND running back.

  15. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Flowers topped all OT’s with 37 reps…boy is strong. Seems most all the Canes in this draft class are really good.

  16. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @nfldraftscout: For 10 yard times, “good” for an OL is 1.80. You can consider 1.75 a “wow” speed. Anything lower is insane.

  17. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Interesting start to the combine. DGB has added some weight, no longer being listed @ 225 but now 6’5 237, that’s significant. He could be a bull in the NFL.

    Also could be a blessing that Perriman isn’t working out, maybe he falls to us in 2nd round or maybe the 3rd, but I see him as a 2nd rounder.

  18. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @nfldraftscout: I’m not worried about Randy Gregory being 235 lbs. He’s a blank canvas. Team will bulk him up to where they want him.

  19. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Penn State TE Jesse James “could get into the low 4.7’s during his forty and over 35-inches on the vertical jump,” reported TFY Draft Insider’s Tony Pauline.
    James measured in at 6-foot-7, 261 pounds at the combine with 33″ arms and 9 3/8″ hands. “I’m told James has also run good shuttle times in training,” Pauline added. We’d previously heard his 40 time reported at 4.78, with 27 reps of 225 pounds on the bench.
    ________________
    WOW, and how cool would it be to have a guy named Jesse James on your team. Everytime he scored a red zone TD, he and his teammates could act like they’re drawing guns and he shoots them dead…lol

  20. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: Missed this, Ereck Flowers had a 1.78 10-yard split for his second run. Take away for him so far: he’s big, thick, powerful and quick.

    • D's avatar D says:

      5.29 40, not that 40 is important lol.

      • D's avatar D says:

        Trenton Brown has same 40 time and is a couple inches taller and 30lbs heavier. Thats pretty impressive to get that big ass body moving that fast. Should mean he has pretty good power, id expect a decent verticle and broad jump.

  21. D's avatar D says:

    Big Fattys are slow this year, none of them below of 5 yet lol. Fisher is best so far with a 5.01

    • getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

      I don’t pay much attention to that…just the 10yd burst off the snap.

      • D's avatar D says:

        40 does give you an idea of power, leans and explosive burst, but it has tobe paired with braod jump and vertile jump to really see what their off the line burst would be like. Cone drills and shuttle are good to see how well they would pull, and shift in ZBS. Its not a usless stat but its not useful right by itself either.

  22. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    Awesome info Mike E. That’s why I don’t put much effort into draft research……guys like you do it for me.

    And if you spend all the time into something as good as that, “Put a name on it”…….that’s about as good of a Beyoncé impression as I’m capable of. 🙂

  23. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Strength, punch, hand placement, feet and balance are the most important on the big Chubs!

    • D's avatar D says:

      I replied above, like i said 40 time isnt irrelevant because it combines some of those skills your mentioning here, it just isnt the end all be all, in fact to really see how a guy would hold up in ZBS you need all of them but all of them as one combined tally vs any one of them individually. ZBS guys just need to be athletic, plain and simple.

  24. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @nfldraftscout: La’el Collins is by far the most athletic of the Group 1 linemen. Killing folks.

  25. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    TJ Clemmings looks like he could do a position switch to DE….lol

  26. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    Any of you guys know where AJ Cann is projected to go? Sounding like he might be on our radar after a trade down.

    • Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

      nfldraftscout has him as the top OG available and has a solid 2nd RD grade (top 50 player)

      • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

        Then sounds like he is the G I’d like in the 2nd…….that’s my ideal spot at least. 1st is too high and 3rd too low. So it’s the Goldilocks spot, as would be low first if we end up there.

  27. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    Football Outsiders ‏@fboutsiders 7m7 minutes ago

    How do you measure player toughness, what if Brett Hundley had played at Oregon, and other draft questions. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2015/futures-inner-game-and-2015-class

  28. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    Collins (LSU) has always had top 15 talent but the real issue is character concerns.

  29. D's avatar D says:

    stangerx says:
    February 20, 2015 at 10:11 am
    Any of you guys know where AJ Cann is projected to go? Sounding like he might be on our radar after a trade down.
    —————————————-
    Looks like people are cooling towards him right now. I am not sure why but im beginning to think possibly round 2 now.

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      Thanks (and should have said that to Al as well). Don’t know the player but, as I said above, the type of place where I’d like us to pick a G.

  30. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    Stanger,
    You want OG value you go for Ali Marpet.
    Tomlinson I like better than Cann.
    Of the guys listed in this blog entry, I like Marpet, Tomlison, Ogbuehi the most. Mcann i don’t mind either but i’ve always been iffy about Spurrier’s scheme.

    • Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

      Eh, don’t know how I got an M in there….obviously Cann is what I meant (must be baseball season lol)

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      My learning continues. Just like to hear we have options, even if a real possibility is that we won’t be looking for Gs that high after FA……which is part of the reason I save my real draft prep (as much as it is) till after that.

  31. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    The 3rd RD has been the jinx round for Miami.
    Parcells/Ireland woes there are well documented but Hickey took Turner there and while I feel great about him, he didn’t get on the field last year (yes, injuries happened but I’m a “excuses are like assholes, everyone’s got em” kinda guy).

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      The sign on the window for Turner was raw with potential. So not a great surprise. Different sign for Dallas Thomas though.

  32. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Arie Kouandjio from Bama & John Miller Louisville, are intriguing as well if we go other positions 1st & 2nd, those are the types that could sneak into the 3rd, maybe even FSU’s Tre Jackson.

    • D's avatar D says:

      Jackson is going to probably be 3-4th. He looked really bad at Senior Bowl…they actually said he “looked like he was on roller skates” in describing how dominated he was by the DL. Im not nearly as confident in him as i was prior to then. I really wouldn’t take him until 4th, and i think i prefer the Tenn. State kid Myers, better than him.

  33. D's avatar D says:

    Al in MIA says:
    February 20, 2015 at 10:12 am
    Football Outsiders ‏@fboutsiders 7m7 minutes ago

    How do you measure player toughness, what if Brett Hundley had played at Oregon, and other draft questions. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2015/futures-inner-game-and-2015-class
    —————————————————————–
    I agree with these kinda of questionings and stuff, and its why the interviews are so important. You can glean more from asking the right questions than you could looking at film. You should be mindful of talent around a player, and you should try to find common opponents so you get a better basis on oyur study, but you want to know how ood a guy is i think biggest thing is to see what drives him, and how he is made up, and you can get a lot of that from talking to them.

    Example, i listened to Mariota’s interview yesterday and after that i am even more certain he is the better guy than Winston. Athletically, no doubt, Winston is better, but after the interview i get the feeling that Mariota is a calm and collected dude. He needs to improve as a QB but he knows what he needs to work on, he admitted to his weaknesses and had a plan for improving them. His vocal inflections never changed during the interviews and he never had long pauses nor did he interject the same canned responses every time. To me that says this dude is going to play with poise, he wont get rattle easily, he has enough confidence to handle the position and he is humble enough to kow your never perfect and you constantly need to refine. He hit a ton of markers i would have been looking for from an interview. Im not saying my position has changed and he will be a stud in the NFL but i definitely think he could start right off and survive, even if he might be better off getting a few games as an observer to start out with. He’s going to continually improve until he hits his ceiling which probably is lowers than Winstons, but when Winston does interviews he just confirms to me, he will never reach his.

  34. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    Oliver Thomas ‏@OliverBThomas 13m13 minutes ago

    Patriots offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo directing a drill at the combine.

    ——–

    SMH….The NFL should ban Patriots coaches from these events. I’m tired of the cheating/espionage ways.

  35. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    Stanger,
    All 3rd RDers come with non starter type labels.
    traditionally only RD 1 and 2 players are considered starter ready.
    Everyone beyond that is considered a non starter in YR 1.

  36. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Keep an eye on the Utes Jeremiah Poutasi…he’s started a lot of games for them as LT, also played RT, but projects to make a good Guard in the NFL that could help on the ends if someone went down with injury.

  37. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    D, yeah Jackson was just pure raw power @ FSU and got away with it. That power will make him dominant in the NFL once/if he picks up good technique from a guy like Benton.

  38. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Washington LB Shaq Thompson will also work out at RB.
    Thompson, per Daniel Jeremiah, previously stated he would not go through RB drills. Something changed, and it might have involved Thompson’s representation.
    ___________________________________
    As I’ve said before….I’LL PASS!

  39. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    GDP,
    I’m intrigued by Miller (louisville) as well but seems a bit on the fat side for ZBS?

  40. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    “All 3rd RDers come with non starter type labels.
    traditionally only RD 1 and 2 players are considered starter ready.”

    Al — but position matters too. You pick a safety in the 3rd and that guy better be starting pretty quick or he is a disappointment. Guard isn’t quite like that, but it is pretty close.

  41. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    AS if we didn’t already know Bellicheck was conceited.

  42. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Satan & his QB’s…LOL

    Alabama QB Blake Sims will also test at RB at the NFL Combine.
    Sims has outstanding phone booth movement in the pocket for a quarterback, and he actually began the early portions of his career at RB and WR.

  43. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Jamon Brown is the other Louisville OL I’m watching.

  44. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    Tried posting this with just the pic and got “your comment is awaiting moderation.” Unless I pissed someone off, assume it was the source. Anyhow, Belicheck showed up at the combine wearing a sweatshirt with his name in big letters on the front. Ego much?

    http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/2/20/8075127/total-bill-move

  45. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    Stanger,
    Not really, a safety in the 3rd round is a player in the 3rd round and not deemed starter ready from day 1. Efforts in scouting is very important of course and people who are starting day 1 outside of Rd 1 and 2 is a product of great fitting of scout work by GM vs coaches scheme.

    Don’t take my word for it, look at this statistical analysis…
    http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/digging-deeper-into-draft-probabilities/
    As you can see on the chart somewhere 1/3 down the page, the probably of a pick selected 67th overall to 86 overall is 12.5%.

    • Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

      er, probability to start in his first year.

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      I get the overall point, but that doesn’t separate by position. And day one or not, wouldn’t you expect a safety taken in the third to be more likely to get a non-injury start before say a QB taken in the same spot?

  46. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Larry Fitzgerald’s new two-year, $22 million contract with the Cardinals contains a no-trade clause.
    As all of Fitzgerald’s 2015-2016 pay is guaranteed and he can prevent any would-be trades, Fitz is locked in as a Cardinal through his age-33 season (2016)

  47. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    This is my kinda Combine workout!

  48. herdfan's avatar herdfan says:

    Stanger: I approved the post in moderation. I can only assume the site thought a pic of BB and RR too obscene to allow. 😖

  49. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    Stanger,

    While the chart I’m referencing doesn’t separate 1st year starter probabilities by position, there is another chart in the article displaying positional probabilities of a pick being a 5 year starter.

    Safety position is very average and has a 25% probability assigned for a pick taken 67-86 (8th of all 13 positions shown -> QB, RB, FB, WR, TE, C, G, OT, DE, DT, LB, CB. S). Safeties in the 41-66 range had a 52% 5 year starter probability (big drop off).

    The highest 5 year starter positional probabilities in the 67-86 range?

    OG & DE in this range (67-86) had a 50% chance of being 5 year starters.

    QB were the worst (0%) …we all know why. FB not even rated, CB & RB the next two worst (8% & 10% respectively).

    Anyway, that chart should fit nicely to what you want -> OG :P.

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      Great info Al —- slightly different topic, but still very relevant. But that OG is there so high does leave us back to our two third round guards. Maybe they made me gunshy, but if we do draft want a notch higher than that…….and in this case we would be looking for an immediate starter.

  50. Al in MIA's avatar Al in MIA says:

    GDP,

    lol @ combine workout.

    That got my attention 🙂

    Tim,

    I hear ya, it’s not about the size of the breast for me ….to me it’s all about the areola. I don’t like big ones.

  51. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Tim leave Brittney alone!!!

  52. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Hey FUers! Work is really eating into my blog time. So the big guys are doing drills today, eh? La’el baby! Not saying we have to take him, but wouldn’t be upset in the least if we did.

  53. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @AbramsonPBP: Texas DT Malcom Brown, potential #Dolphins target? Says he’s playing for his wife and kids, not just him http://t.co/Ikc1EiRVBv

  54. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @willieapreston1: Dolphins meet with ex-UM stars Clive Walford, Duke Johnson at scouting combine – Sun Sentinel (via http://t.co/UePrN7HYqB) http://teamstre.

  55. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @evansilva: #PennState TE Jesse James having nice Combine so far. 6’7/261, 33″ arms, 26 reps of 225, 10’1″ broad jump (h/t @jharrisfootball).

    • getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

      Wild Wild West

      • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

        He can chick check Gronk if he
        He just has to hit him in the balls first

        Seriously Perrymans tackling is a work of art
        It’s not just big hits
        It big clean hits consistently
        It would be amazing to watch him in a weekly basis for the Dolphins

  56. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Mike E, Believe me, I wanna give Tanny lots of time to carve defenses too!
    But I just can’t get excited about a OL who will be a G for us @ #14…I think that pick can be better well spent at this point in time. Do I want a very solid G, yes, you betcha, but we have FA for that as well as other OL in the draft that I think can end up doing as well as Collins in a G position.

  57. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: Hot name in the Draft community:
    #UCLA Eric Kendricks came in at 6’0″, 232 lbs with 31″ arms and 9 5/8 hands.

    • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

      I love Kendrick’s instincts

      Perryman too

      For those two I would say throw out whatever their combine numbers at look at the tape

  58. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RobRang: WSU DL Xavier Cooper says he is hoping to run “in the low 4.7s” after measuring in a little under 6-3, 293 pounds.

  59. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: #Miami LB Denzel Perryman came in at 5’11”, 236 lbs. Not positive, but pretty sure he bulked up each year. Now down from Senior Bowl weight.

  60. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    GDP

    Obviously if we address the OL in FA, we won’t need to draft an OG in the 1st RD.

  61. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: #Houston DT Joey Mbu came in at 6’3″, 313 lbs with 35″ arms. Longest arms of the DL group.

  62. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    I think Perryman is my favorite player in this draft BTW

  63. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    Dolphins meeting with air of Hurricanes I guess

  64. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    I think someone mentioned Mizzou OL Mitch Morse earlier…he looks the part of a good pulling G in our ZBS, he’s not a mauler, but he’s quick, smart, instinctive.

  65. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    Pig,
    I like Perryman a lot. The brute physicality he plays with is awesome.

  66. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    Interesting to note that Vic Beasely said we’ve shown more interest in him than any other team at this point.

  67. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    Mike E, correct, and that is why I want to land an experienced proven G in FA. Tanny doesn’t have time to wait for more rookies to get up to speed….we’re still waiting on Dallas Thomas, Turner, and we need to hope James continues to develop and not plateau after teams have a lot of film on him.

  68. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @RoadToRadioCity: #USC DL Leonard Williams official measurements: 6’5″, 303 lbs, 34 5/8″ arms and 10 5/8″ hands.

    WOW!

  69. drg's avatar drg says:

    Nice job Mike. Good stuff.

    Hey Stanger, I was calling for Miami to cut Fields on Twitter. Feel like it’s a waste to pay that much for a punter unless he is elite and the analytics back it up. There is not a huge variance in kicker or punter numbers over a five year span which allows for a decent sampling size. There are a few elites worth paying top dollar to, but 95% of the guys all put up about the same numbers over time.

    Just know that I felt guilty about it the whole time for your sake. Also, it’s snowing(raining) in Utah right now. Maybe some snow for you by next week?

  70. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    GDP

    I think we also need to have a legit insurance policy against Albert not being ready, so in reality, we may need 3 OL altogether.

    • getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

      I can’t bear another consecutive year with poor OL play, but when do we stop drafting OL with our 1st pick? I know Chicken or Egg.

  71. getterdone's avatar getterdone says:

    WOW, whoever keeps mentioning TE Jean Sifrin needs to forget him, he’ll be 28 by the time the season starts and ready to retire by the time his rookie contract is up…LOL

  72. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    I keep seeing folks put out their thoughts on our starting OL next year, and nobody mentions Dallas Thomas…..but they name starters who Thomas played ahead of last season. I get the impression the coaches have a different view of Thomas than fans do. After all, they ran him out there game after game last season….ahead of Shelley….ahead of Turner(rookie, yes)….ahead of Fox. It would appear that Thomas is clearly a player the coaches feel is a starter. Fans wanna write him off after 2 seasons where he really only played in one. I think he’s a kid they need to continue to invest in and develop because he’s one of the best athletes on the unit. Personally, I think it takes 3 or 4 years for OL to become the player they can be.

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      Randy — Thomas is in the mix, but at best he’ll be in a compete for one guard spot. Not Kreskin, but pretty sure the other will be filled by some stud (young or older) walking into camp at Davie.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

      I believe he started out of necessity and he played mainly at RT when James had to move to LT. I could see him as the new swing guy at G/T because I’m not convinced he’ll be a starter. That’s just my gut feeling though.

    • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

      people want results right away

      but I think if you draft an interior OL in the 3rd round, you have to expect a learning curve

      Same thing with Turner
      Just because the Dolphins screwed up by not developing players prior to Philbin doesn;t mean we must have impact players

  73. Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

    I don’t think it matters that we’ve used 1st rd picks on OL in the recent past. It’s not every year but you get the feeling that it is. Circumstances change priorities though.
    2008 Jake Long
    2011 Mike Pouncey
    2014 Ja’Wuan James

  74. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    drg — I don’t take it personal if you go after Fields. I know last year was an off year for him, but he did kick it in 2nd half of the season. My guess is though that they extend him rather than cut him. Think they see what I have…….but been wrong before.

    And yeah…….snow reports are almost as bad as the 1-15 season. Saw one that said no snow since Feb 9th. Ouch. But hey, will be a good trip regardless.

  75. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @JoshNorris: #Minnesota TE Maxx Williams 2nd forty: 4.77, 10 yd of 1.63

  76. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    The draft is all about slotting guys in the right spot. If you have an OG slotted in the top 15….and he’s sitting there for you to pick at #14….it’s a valid pick. Now, that doesn’t mean you can’t pick another position, but if they truly value a guard at #14 then there’s nothing wrong with making that choice. You get yourself in trouble when you start picking guys ahead of where you have them slotted. I think Ireland seemed to do that too often. One year it seemed like every pick he made was a round higher than they should’ve been picked.

    Too me, I don’t care what the position is. Anybody you pick at #14 needs to become a pretty solid, long term starter. If he does, regardless of position, it was a good pick.

  77. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Tim

    We paid for a 1st RD pick OL in FA (Branden Albert), but yes, it’s not like we’re drafting an OL in the 1st every year.

    • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

      3 first round picks in 7 years is a lot
      if we drafted OL in the first this year, it would be 4 in 8 years

      That is a lot
      Its borderline absurd

      • Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

        I disagree based on the circumstances. Jake Long broke down and left via FA. Pouncey is still a starter and Martin forced us to address the RT position.

  78. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Tim,
    Actually, Thomas played guard…ahead of shelley early in the season.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

      I believe Smith started first and Thomas started when Smith got hurt.

    • dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

      Nope, Smith started at RG first 2 games and then was replaced in the 2nd half versus the Bills.

      • dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

        Then it was rotating guys in and out until Pouncey came back. Against Detroit Thomas would enter the game then get benched in favor of Garner only to have Garner get knocked out. He comes back in for a play or two then is replaced by Garner who then gets rolled into Alberts knee. This then put Thomas at RT.

  79. D's avatar D says:

    I still see a lot of value in Cann, but i think i prefer Tomlinson, Marpet and Robert Myers best as a kinda higher round, followed by two potential mid to lower mid rounders.

    Kouandjio like too, and though i didnt list him as one of my favorites i think a lot of him. I think he is better of the two brothers, he just got less attention due to being an OG. He made his brother look better until he had to focus more on his own dude in that Oklahoma game which exposed some of the flaws in his brothers technique. He also has held down his position and played it well through several transitions of the OL talent, and scheme changes, showing adaptability and being the true anchor of what for several years has been a team with a great OL. Only reason i didnt list him is i think he and Tomlinson are going to both be 2nd rounders and if we had a shot at both, Tomlinson is my choice.

  80. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    Honestly I have no complaints on drafting OL early every year just like WR.

  81. Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

    Mike E, the OL situation in 2013 changed everything. This is year two for the OL in my eyes. I don’t care about the past before that, it has no bearing on the current situation.

  82. D's avatar D says:

    I agree with that Randy but you also have to weight certain players. I mean you could wind up with 3-4 guys you have ranked roughly same spot, and at that point it can be a lot about a lot of factors, how fast certain positions are falling off the board, who’s picking behind you, whether or not there is more value in a trade up or trade down, etc. Its morphic and changes with every pick before oyu get to yours.

  83. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    stanger,
    I’m just going by what the coaches did and the choices they made. They chose to play Thomas….over other guys. Fans focus on the sacks. Coaches look at all the plays, so I assume they felt Thomas was thier best option, or they wouldn’t have kept running him out there.

    Shelley was, as I expected, terrible in pass pro…but strong in the run game. Fox looked bad or close to it almost any time he played. Turner simply didn’t get much run, but I gotta assume he wasn’t earning it in practice. If he was clearly beating out Thomas, I assume the coaches would’ve put him in. They’ve shown they’re willing to start rookies if they can play.

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      I hope Thomas turns all pro, just not waiting on it. Actually have more hope for Turner, but that is only cause he came in billed as a raw rookie and we don’t have as much track record with him. Even Pouncey said we need “guard help.”

  84. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Tim,
    My memory isn’t what it used to be, but I remember Smith getting his ass handed to him and Thomas being put in…and Smith not getting back in until Thomas had to move out to RT….but I might be wrong.

    • dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

      1st Bills game he was destroyed in pass pro at RG. He played better late in the season at LG, but he may have looked better because of how bad Colledge looked the second half of the season.

  85. D's avatar D says:

    We have need at OL, we have need at WR, we have need at ILB, we have need at S, we have need at CB, we have need at DT, yadda yadda yadda…so having so many needs bad thing is almost everyone will be somewhat disappointed if they have their mind locked on one guy or one positon, but the flipside is, almost anyone we pick is going to help us somewhere. 14 is a pick point at which a lot of people go it kinda sucks because you are at the top getting someone elite, and your not at the bottom not needing such a high pick lol and likely able to entertain more trades. To me i look at it as we have a lot of maneuverability incase of almost any kinda direction the draft takes us. We can flow and roll with it, trade down if we want, etc and also alost anyone we pick is going to help us. Makes it almost impossible to predict a pick but its also kinda exciting knowing we got a lot of good options.

  86. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    D,
    Yep, that’s why I said there’s nothing wrong with taking another guy/position….depending on all those factors. But, there’s nothing wrong with taking a guard at #14 if the team slots him there.

    Personally, I hope they go WR or TE, but I don’t care if they take a guard who belongs at #14. I’m just not sure any guards have that sorta value this year.

    • D's avatar D says:

      Im not seeing a stud OG this year, even Collins who people seems to assume will dominate there, i dont see him having that impact.

  87. D's avatar D says:

    Randy, you a re right, fans focus on sacks and a lot of other things that doesn’t show the full story of a game or how well a guy played. Thomas had some bad outings, and definitely had some bad plays in those outings, but he had some really good ones against some really good DE’s. I cant comment on Turner since we didnt see him but im of the same opinion as you, he just wasn’t ready to come in or he too would have suffered similar fate as Thomas. Everyone has this inflated opinion of Turner, i just dont understand how they can. Shelley Smith was horrible in some games too, yet he’s better. Thomas god jerked around all season and if ya watch him snap by snap he wasn’t horrible, he just wasn’t as good as we really needed him to be given the predicament we were in with Albert going out.

    • dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

      I have my personal opinion of Turner😆 Mine was formed watching him at NDSU along with his play in the pre-season along with his limited snaps against the Jets. Plain and simply he’s the most physical OL on the team. Turner has admitted that the injury and some technique development held him back. If you go back and look at that final Jets game he dominated in his 12 snaps. Calvin Pace quit coming with pressure. Once Fox was put back in at RT they started bringing the heat from that side again. Turner, I believe, is not only going to start, but will play at a legitimate pro bowl level.

  88. drg's avatar drg says:

    Stanger,

    Miami was top 5 in net punt stats for 2012 and 2013, but they average around 12th throughout Fields career. To me, he’s JAG and should be paid as such. A punter has to be pretty incredible to justify big dollars and the way most teams move the ball these days an extra couple yards in the field position game doesn’t make a noticeable impact.

    Even kickers stats all tend to even out over a larger sample size, but if you find one that is really reliable and consistently puts up numbers from 45+ distance like a Viniateri they are worth the money. Since they moved the spot up kickoff length isn’t really much of a factor anymore.

    I’ll be in touch when you guys get into town. Looking like I’ll be able to swing up for a drink or quick dinner to meet.

    • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

      drg — watched him practice and the guy is amazing. We’ll see but bet the three time man of the year from the charity aspect remains on the team.

      And cool that you may have time. Would be great to meet you. Just give the wife’s cell a buzz…..and you know where we’ll be.

  89. Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

    Randy, our depth on the OL isn’t anything to write home about. So Thomas starting over other guys isn’t a great achievement.

  90. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    D
    I kinda have the same thoughts about our OL as you posted. But, I do agree that we need to bring in another couple young fellas. I think our depth is weak. Garner, Fox, Smith, Brenner….bleh.

    If it were me, I’d take Scherff, put him at guard and watch him kick some ass. I think it’s possible he may drop a bit in this draft because he has movement limitations….and teams may not see him as a legit LT. Whether or not he will drop all the way to #14 is debatable….probably not likely given he’ll be one of the top tackles in this draft.

    • D's avatar D says:

      I have read that several people see him as a OG, he will be this years Martin i think, though im not sure if he has the same first year Martin did, but there are never those kind of guarantees with the draft.

  91. Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

    D, from what I’ve read about Turner the coaches feel he has tremendous ability and upside. So I’m riding with the 2nd year jump.

    • D's avatar D says:

      I dont disagree with that, but im saying He wasnt ready last year and wouldnt likely have provided a boost overThomas. They were smart to hold him out until he got a better chance to get his feet. IM just saying with all the BS about Thomas it always resounds with Turner is much better, and i dont know how you can say that with a guy who showed nothing to support it last year. I do think he will develop into a good if not great player but most here are running wild with speculation over a guy who may indeed turn out just like Thomas, and need even more time to acclimate.

      Understand you have two guys that most are holding one up over the other, that have the same back story and history lol, neither were ready first year, and had injuries limiting them, both were consider good selection in the 3rd round, both are hybrid players that can play each position, etc. So tell me how the belief in both are dramatically different, and have been from the get go. Trust me Thomas was really good at UT, and SEC school, so even his college clout is remarkably similar.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

        For me it’s a gut feeling. When we drafted him Hickey was very excited about him and Dbolt was big on him before we drafted him. He has that rare combo of natural size strength and athleticism.

  92. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @AbramsonPBP: #Canes LB Denzel Perryman said he’s meeting with #Dolphins tonight

  93. Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

    All that said about the OL, I’ve defended Thomas with patience and I hope he continues to develop and improve. That only makes us better.

    • D's avatar D says:

      He’s not a toss away guy, there is still a player in there that could at very least give us good depth at two positions. Thats all im really saying too. Turner may wind up being a stater, he might be an all pro, he may be a lot, but that’s all guessing, he may also wind up a very good depth player too.

  94. dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

    @AbramsonPBP: Mississippi State LB Benardrick McKinney says he’s met with #Dolphins, likes LB coach and thinks he’s be a good fit http://t.co/T5Vre47oHk

    • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

      I would liek to draft McKinney and play him at OLB

      I wouldn;t mind if our first 2 pciks were Perryman and McKinney!

      Ouch!

    • D's avatar D says:

      I think he would be too. I think he has some refinement points but all of the ILB’s this year need it. I think the versatility of moving him around is what i like best. He is more natural ILB, but can bring the pain lined up on the outside. Very fast blitzer and when he squares up to make a tackle its a hard hit.

      • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

        He’s just not very good in coverage

        and IMO doesn;t have instincts liek Perryman or Kendricks, so as 4-3 MLB I like Perryman and Kendricks better than McKinney

  95. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Dbolt,
    I liked how Turner looked overall against the jets too. But remember….when guys come in like that…defenders haven’t spent the week evaluating him, picking out his weaknesses and figuring out how to exploit them. That’s why guys in those situations can look better than they would otherwise. It’s also why they look good in the running game and not as good in the passing game. He was allowed to just go out there and be physical….which was always a strength.

    That said, he did what he needed to do….we’ll find out if he can continue to develop his technique…because that’s what matters most in the NFL.

    • dbolt48's avatar dbolt48 says:

      Agreed, but he did well when Ryan tested him with multiple blitzers which means he’s mentally well prepared. As you said we went out there and did his job and got it done by whatever means necessary…..which was physically beating down defenders.

  96. D's avatar D says:

    Mine and Randys arguments are the same i think. Turner isnt better than Thomas at thsi point, so we need more competition for a starter on the OL and if we get that through FA or draft, so be it, we just need more than what we have. Cant really fully count on either of them at this point.

  97. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    Watch this and get excited

    This is the way football was meant to be played

  98. BoulderPhinfan's avatar BoulderPhinfan says:

    thomas is not the answer for any of the o-line positions. I don’t even think he’s a capable backup.

  99. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Tim,
    Coaches and fellow players have said those same things about Thomas too. I believe Albert said Thomas was the most physically gifted player on the OL or something like that. It really doesn’t matter unless they put it together on the field. Turner simply hasn’t had the opportunity yet. We’ll know more when we can see him play….until then, it’s just hype and speculation.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Silly Tim says:

      I admit I’m positively projecting Turner as a starting guard. I did the same with Thomas last year and he was 50/50 in my eyes.

  100. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    And watch this

    More Perryman

Leave a reply to stangerx Cancel reply