AFC East Preseason Outlook

The 2022 NFL Draft hasn’t happened yet, but I figured let’s take a look at the current state of our division. The Bills were aggressive in free agency as were the Miami Dolphins. The New York Jets were somewhat quiet in free agency but they are primed to add talent in the upcoming draft. As of right now, the Jets hold picks #4 and #10 in RD 1, picks #35 and #38 in RD 2, #69 in RD3, two 4th RD picks #111 and #117 and two in RD 5, #146 and #163. So four picks in the top 40, and then an additional 2 picks each in round 4 and 5. The Patriots have a pretty standard draft selection available with one pick each through the first 5 rounds and then one additional 6th rounder for 7 total picks. The Patriots pick in RD 1 #21, #54 in RD 2, #85 in RD 3, #127 in RD 4, #170 in RD 5, and then 2 picks in RD 6 at #200 and #210. The Bills have 8 selections in the 2022 Draft, two in RD 6, and one in each other round, RD 1 #25, RD 2 #57, RD 3 #89, RD 4 #130, RD 5 #168, in RD 6 2 selections at #185 and #203, and in RD 7 #231. The Dolphins as we all know sent two of our top picks RD1 and RD 2 to KC for the services of one Tyreek Hill, WR.

The Bills struck first in free agency with a big move for their defense, acquiring Von Miller formerly of the SB Champion LA Rams. I was a little surprised that Miller left the Rams, but he did go to the AFC super bowl favorite Buffalo Bills. Miller signed a 6YR/$120M deal. The Bills aren’t the unanimous favorite, but they are among the favorites. The Bills added depth at QB behind Josh Allen trading for Case Keenum and signing Matt Barkley, They added a very good slot receiver in Jamison Crowder, a solid OG in Roger Saffold, a pretty good TE although an underachieving one in O.J. Howard. The Bills also brought back former Bill and former Dolphins DT Jordan Phillips. They added Dolphins fave RB Duke Johnson for depth, as well as former Dolphins C Greg Mancz. The Bills are definitely an elite team as currently constituted, we’ll see if their draft can put them over the top.

The Patriots were not big spenders in free agency this year. Last year, uncharacteristically they were very aggressive but have settled back into just filling depth, and not going for the high ticket players. They brought in RB/WR Ty Montgomery from the Saints and re-signed their own RB James White. They did also re-sign OT Trent Brown. They added QB Brian Hoyer as a backup for Mac Jones. They re-signed S Devin McCourty and added FA CB Malcolm Butler from the Cards. There were a few mor low key signings as well, and due to BB being the HC and GM, the Patriots are still ranked as one of the better AFC teams, usually ranked higher than our own Dolphins.

The Jets fortified their O-line by signing OG Laken Tomlinson (who I really wanted!) early in free agency. They signed TE C.J. Ozumah who showed promise last year for the Bengals. They re-signed WR/KR/PR Braxton Berrios (Another player coveted by FU bloggers). Theyt also brought in another TE, former Vikes TE Tyler Conklin. They re-signed all purpose RB Tevin Coleman and brought back flash in the pan QB Mike White as well as long in the tooth QB Joe Flacco. Their big move was Tomlinson but their fireworks will be in the draft.

So right now, the Bills, who already had one of the best teams in the AFC got stronger on defense by adding one of the best pass rushers in the game in Von Miller. The Bills also have 8 picks in this draft. The Jets are definitely going to add lots of high ranked prospects from the draft having 4 picks in the top 40 picks. The Patriots while not having a reputation of drafting especially well, and this year received ZERO compensatory picks, no doubt due to their free agent spending spree of 2021, still have 7 picks and the rest of free agency including post June 1st cuts to improve their team. Our Dolphins are low on picks with just 5, and 2 of those are in RD 7, with the first not coming until RD 3, pick #102. There’s always the possibility of trading up and trading either a player or future assets. I don’t say no to any of those possibilities. The idea is to use assets to acquire players that can help the team now, and in the future. It doesn’t matter to me if we use future assets, we’re ready to compete now, it just accelerates the schedule. If there’s a player we feel will make us better now and in the future, go get him.

We closed the gap on the Bills, but if I’m going to be completely honest, until I see us play a competitive game against them, they are light years ahead of us. We haven’t really belonged on the same playing field with them the last few years, losing every game, including a 35-0 drubbing and an ugly 26-11 defeat last season.In 202, Ryan Fitzpatrick lost a shootout 31-28 and then we all remember the shellacking we took Week 17 with the playoffs on the line for us, 56-26. In 2019 we lost 31-21 and 37-20. You have to go back to November of 2018 where slid past the Bills 21-17, but lost the 2nd meeting Week 17 to start their dominant run, 42-17. We played well against the Patriots and Jets, but those Bills will hinder our playoff chances if we can’t take on from them. Can’t count on sweeping the Pats and Jets every year either. It will be interesting to see how much the Jets improve as they surround their QB with upgrades from the draft. They will almost certainly be selecting a WR and possibly on OL early. They need a pass rusher too and that could also be an early selection. If we want to compete in an ultra competitive AFC with teams like the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Titans, Raiders, Broncos and Chargers, and any other upstarts, we’re going to have once again do well in our own division, so at least 4-2 at a minimum.

#stangerstrong

GO DOLPHINS!!!

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1,374 Responses to AFC East Preseason Outlook

  1. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    That does it… I’m adding Brandon Smith to my ‘man-crush’ list, along with Tyler Allgeier and Matt Araiza (<- who we no longer need to draft).

    • bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

      I was taking Brandon Smith almost every one of my early mocks. Then, I got turned on to Leo Chenal. I am all over the place with him. I think many of his negatives can be coached up. Thing is, we don’t need to draft an immediate starter at LB. We have that in place.

      I said last week that now would be the perfect time to draft someone like Brandon Smith, Leo Chenal of Channing Tindall. They can play ST’s, give guys some breathers and learn behind the rest. Learn the system. Chenal is mainly an ILB but Smith and Tindall can be plugged in anywhere.

      Not sure I am moving up for any of them unless it is around pick 80 or the top 10 are disappearing fast.

  2. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    Players I would trade up for if they fall to top 3rd round or run to the podium at 102:
    Leo Chenal, ILB, Wisconsin
    Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
    Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

    Players I would trade up for if they are there middle of 3rd round or would definitely take at 102:
    Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming
    Brandon Smith, LB Penn State
    Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
    Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State
    Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia
    Cole Strange, OG/OC, UT-Chattanooga
    Dylan Parham, OG/OC, Memphis
    Nick Cross, S, Maryland

    Players I would take at 102 or 125
    Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati
    Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA
    Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee
    Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston St.
    Travis Jones, DL, UConn
    Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE, South Carolina
    Myjai Sanders, EDGE, Cincinnati
    Sam Williams, EDGE, Ole Miss
    Alex Wright, EDGE, UAB
    Darrian Beavers, LB, Cincinnati
    Cam Jurgens, OC, Nebraska
    Zach Tom, OT/OC, Wake Forest
    Luke Fortner, OC, Kentucky
    Dohnovan West, OC, Arizona State
    Max Mitchell, OT, Louisiana Lafayette
    IsaIah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M
    James Cook, RB, Georgia
    Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU
    Jerome Ford, RB, Cincinnati
    Zamir White, RB, Georgia
    Brian Cook, S, Cincinnati
    Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
    Velus Jones Jr, WR Tennessee

  3. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Draftek has Dotson @ #35 overall and their #1 slot WR.
    (a position we have plenty of guys to play, so I would not draft him)

  4. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    CBS has Dotson #7 WR and #42 overall.
    NFL gives Dotson a Prospect Grade of 6.25 “Will eventually be average starter”
    … …
    What Steveccnv sees is his
    Weaknesses:
    Drifting route breaks allow coverage to undercut.
    Needs additional steps to break off intermediate comebacks.
    Labors in adjustments to off-target throws in tracking phase.
    Play strength issues show up against clingy coverage.
    Allows too much intrusion into the catch area.
    Brought down by arm tackles in open field.

    Sources Tell Us

    “He’s got some weaknesses that are going to give him trouble in the league, but you can’t really crush him for them because he can really run and he’s a very smart player.” — Scouting director for NFC team

  5. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Chris Grier says
    “when you have so few picks, you need to make the most of them and make sure the fit on the roster is right, that the role is well-defined.

  6. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Grier seems to be saying that they are going to draft very precisely to match the player to a specific position to fill a role.
    That sounds like the opposite of BPA.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      What if the BPA on our board is a nickel CB who can play STs and we feel he can play some defensive snaps right away, wouldn’t that be a well-defined role?

      • naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

        That’s the intersection of BPA and drafting for roster spot.
        That’s the best of all worlds.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        Well you want #102 to make the team for sure and make some sort of an impact. Maybe the BPA will be a DE who can backup Ogbah’s role. This is what I mean about BPA and fitting with the team this year, not a guy who will be inactive all the time. Make the most of that pick and even #125 as well.

  7. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    PFF MIA Dolphins
    Most INT’s in single coverage since 2017

    1️⃣ Xavien Howard: 17
    2️⃣ J.C. Jackson: 15
    3️⃣ Kyle Fuller: 12

  8. The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

    BBMike

    I’m with you on almost every LB on your list. I also have nothing against trading up in 3rd for a center we like.

    But why are we trading up for a WR? We are going to have trouble feeding the guys we have as is. If we drafted a WR, he will probably barely see the field in 2022.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      Yeah I don’t see that. If Preston Williams is healthy and is ready to be a pro he’s going to play. The talent is there. Hill, Waddle and Wilson along with Gesicki and the backs, there are only so many touches.

  9. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Reason Phinside the NFL says, his sources tell him Deebo only trusts MickyD and wants to play for Fins, might not happen this year, but maybe next

  10. sb7mvp's avatar sb7mvp says:

    BPA means best player available. That means you don’t take the second best player available because he wouldn’t be the best. That’s just common sense. You always want to grab the best players for you team, not the guys who are rated after the best. Otherwise you have an entirely different acronym.

    • naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

      If the BPA is a QB when Denver’s pick arrives, they most certainly will pass and select someone who will help their team.
      … … Now, maybe they will have already removed QBs from their Board, but as soon as they do that, it’s not truly BPA. It becomes need or fit based as soon as they remove positions they don’t need.

      • Ken's avatar Ken says:

        Going by BPA in that scenario Denver should trade down because that is where they get their best value at that point

  11. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    But why are we trading up for a WR?
    —————————-
    Piggy, I should have left Dotson off that list. It’s a man crush thing with Christian Watson. He is not only 6’4 205 and runs a 4.38 but he is a YAC WR and very good with the ball in his hands. He runs end arounds and is a returner as well due to his running skills.

  12. Krishna's avatar Krishna says:

    Patience….do we really know what we have? I can’t wait to see! On the fucking field! Lol….

  13. Ken's avatar Ken says:

    Deebo wants out of SF. Sounds like another diva too me. We don’t need him nor do we have the capital to trade for him

  14. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    While I wouldn’t trade up for a WR, if Velus Jones falls to us, he’d be a great pick, as he can be a gunner and a KR/PR, as well as WR6, thereby saving a roster spot for a developmental LB or DB.

  15. manitobafinfan's avatar manitobafinfan says:

    Is there a holiday in FL today that I don’t know about ??

  16. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

  17. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    Our secondary was the strongest unit on the team last year. Talking X, Holland, Jones (X2) and Needham (who had strong stats).

    But why did we give up 228 pass yards per game? That was good for a very middling 17th in the league. We were 14th in run D, which was supposed to be our more vulnerable aspect.

    • bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

      We only gave up 300+ pass yards in 4 of 17 games where 3 of 4 QB’s were top 10. We gave up less than 200 pass yards in 7 of 17 games. Though 5 of the 7 were poor teams. We held Allen to 171 and Tannehill to 110 but they ran over us. So yeah, not sure what’s up with that.

      We gave up 100+ rushing yards 10 of 17 games and out of those 10, 4 were vs Bills and Pats. How were we 14th?

      We gave up 259 in 2 games vs Pats and 255 in 2 games vs Bills. That has got to change.

      • stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

        My first thought was that a lot of the passing yards were given up when one of the top 5 in the secondary were not in coverage. Which means was looking at the LBs in the short middle or on dump offs.

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      We don’t have a good pass D as far as yards go, we’re pretty good in pts allowed and on 3rd down, when the Amoeba is working

      Our D is smoke and mirrors, or deception, or trickery, not Mano y mano

  18. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    We only had 100+ rushing yards in 6 of 17 games where 4 of the 6 were after we signed Duke Johnson. I really hate he went to the fucking Bills.

  19. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Join the party Toba

    manitobafinfan says:
    April 21, 2022 at 10:42 am
    Is there a holiday in FL today that I don’t know about ??

    I’ve was trying to get ahold of the building dept in Brevard County, took forever to get thru

    But in general everyone uses covid still as an excuse to have shitty customer service

    Trying to get a house built in Florida, the realtor at the models never answers his phone, or returns emails or texts. To contact him I have to go thru the website and enter a comment, then they schedule a meeting with me

  20. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    In Grier’s presser looked more comfortable/confident than I’ve ever seen him

    He seems to feel pretty good about what he’s done this year, and the team in general

  21. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    The comment about our lack of rushing yards

    Last year during the Jax game I mentioned everything on O was a struggle, 2nd and 1, 3rd and 2 I hope we get the 1st down

    That O couldn’t win the big game with the struggles we had, it was mostly Tua throwing to someone, no identity, different philosophy on every drive

    If we struggle again this year moving the ball, we’ll have the same no playoff results

    Combine Tua’s accuracy with a good running game and we’ll make the playoffs, because of the consistency Tua provides

    That consistency was also the identity of the ’72 Fins, different type but low risk too

  22. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

  23. sb7mvp's avatar sb7mvp says:

    stangerx says:
    April 21, 2022 at 11:01 am
    But if Deebo is a diva for wanting out…….. what is Tyreek?
    ___
    Tyreek didn’t want out, he wanted paid more than the team was willing to pay him, so they let him seek a trade to someone who’d meet his desired contract.

  24. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    BPA is always relative…especially later in the draft. I doubt every team agrees on who the BPA is at pick 125. BPA should always be melded with need to whatever extent the team feels is necessary. Bottom line is just finding good players. Do that and nobody cares what position they play.

  25. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Don’t kid yourselves. Debo is looking to get paid like a WR and not a RB or hybrid. I’m guessing he also doesn’t want to keep getting used the way Shanahan used him because it will shorten his career. He was already starting to show wear and tear last year. WR careers are a lot longer than RB careers, and they get paid a whole lot more. It’s always all about the money.

  26. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

    prophetic

  27. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    I agree with that.

  28. Ken's avatar Ken says:

    stangerx says:
    April 21, 2022 at 11:01 am (Edit)
    But if Deebo is a diva for wanting out…….. what is Tyreek?
    ———————
    He didn’t publicly call out or asked to be traded. So not a diva imo

  29. sb7mvp's avatar sb7mvp says:

    BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE MEANS THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. IT DOESN’T MEAN WHOEVER IS LEFT AFTER THE BEST PLAYER THAT IS AVAILABLE. IT’S THE BEST AROUND, NOTHING’S EVER GONNA KEEP THEM DOWN.

    • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

      But opinions will always differ no who the BPA is so there is that.

      Also, if you grade a TE and a LB with the same grade. How do you determine who the BPA is between the two? (hint – Need)

      • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

        Either would be the BPA

        The argument always used is what if a QB was the BPA and you don’t want a QB…

        When is a QB ever the BPA, unless we’re talking 1st pick, in which case you’d surely trade the pick, if you don’t want the QB

      • Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

        Steve, I was responding to SB7MBP’s statement as per the parameters he sets out, how can there be two BPA in that case?

      • sb7mvp's avatar sb7mvp says:

        I DETERMINE IT BY SEEING WHO THE BEST IS. WORDS MEANS THINGS FOR A REASON!111!!!!!1111!11111!1111 IF THEY AREN’T THE BEST THE GM SHOULDN’T BE PICKING THEM. YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT THAT THIS TEAM NEEDS THE BEST PLAYERS!!!!!!!! OUR GM BETTER START PICKING HIM OR HE HAS NO MORE EXCUSES!!!!1!!!!

  30. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Naples,
    I think it’s more about how Debo was used and the impact it has on his longevity and earning potential. I’m just guessing, but I think he wants to be used at WR and not as much in the running game. I talked about this after the season when folks were saying we needed to find our own Debo after we hired McD. I disagreed because you could see Debo starting to wear down as they used him more as a RB. It’s just not a sustainable way to use a WR, so why would we try to replicate it? Plus, teams would start to adjust defensively.
    ***
    As to contracts, if he keeps getting used more as a RB and less as a WR, teams will use that against him in negotiations. It’s better for him if he gets paid like a pure WR. I said a year ago that WRs were gonna start getting paid big time just because of their importance in this pass happy league. They are now the most important position on the field behind QB because of the rules and favoritism for offenses.

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      I don’t see him getting 3 carries a game rushing changing anything contractually, lots of WRs run the ball

      Don’t think I’ve ever heard the argument in that direction, Deebo is a WR, that moonlights at RB, usually its the player like Gesicki listed as a TE that wants to be pay like the higher position WR

  31. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Shanahan Wannstadted Deebo, much like what happened to Rickey

  32. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Using baseball as an example, so let’s say left handed batters are paid more than right handed ones, so Player A is a switch hitter with his regular side being the left, because he additionally bats right handed should he be paid less?

    You don’t get paid less, because you have more skills

  33. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Steve,
    I don’t think it’s the question of “Is he a WR or a RB?” It would be more about teams saying they may not have seen the production out of him at WR to pay him top dollar and questioning his health due to how he may have been used and how that may impact his health or availability for my team. If I’m a GM, I’m definitely going there. Why wouldn’t I?

  34. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-ready-to-tackle-their-bills-problem

    They HAVE to start beating the Bills! It is priority #1 IMNSHO.

  35. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Lunch time is over. Back to the grind.

  36. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Remember this name as a potential 7th Rounder-UDFA: Malcolm Rodriguez, ILB, Oklahoma State. 5’11”, 236, 4.52 40-time, 39.5″ VJ, and 120″ BJ. He’s built like Zach Thomas and even plays a little like Zach. First 3 years he played Safety, last 2 years he played ILB. In ’20 alone, he had 7 forced fumbles.

    I see many pundits/draftniks are labeling him as… UNDERSIZED, just like Zach Thomas.

    Here’s a little highlight reel…

  37. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Here’s a guy to look at as a UDFA, albeit with a ‘buyer beware’ sticker: Micheal Clemons, DE, Texas A&M. 6’5″, 263. Former JUCO (top-25 player) who transferred to A&M, and who was arrested on multiple charges, including unlawful carrying of a weapon and marijuana possession. The arrest caused him to be suspended for the first game of the 2021 season. He’s also sustained a foot injury in camp that caused him to miss the entire ’18 season, and in ’20 he sustained an ankle injury in game 5 that required surgery (missed the rest of the season).

    So with THAT out of the way (LOL, know ya know why he’s going to be a UDFA!), he has skills. In his very last game of the ’21 season, he sacked LSU 3.5 times. I could see him as a backup to Ogbah in time with his length and his strength. Bring him to camp and see if he sticks: nobody is going to draft him.

    • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

      I should retract what I just stated, that nobody will draft him. There’s almost always somebody who’s willing to take a chance on a guy like this in the last round(s).

      But the way I see it?
      Weapons charges: check
      Mary Jane charges: check
      Multiple injury history: check
      Bad Combine numbers: check (4.85 40-time at his Pro Day)
      JUCO transfer: check

      I wouldn’t draft him, but I’d certainly sign him as a UDFA to see if he can stick.

  38. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Heat and Panthers both #1 in their respective divisions going into the playoffs. I hope the Dolphins follow suit this season!

  39. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Teams do sometimes reach for need and pass on the better overall prospect. Teams are going to do that for QBs this year.

  40. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    SB is forever stuck in caps lock.

  41. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

    102.Matt Waletzko OT North Dakota
    125.Alec Lindstrom OC Boston College
    224.Jack Sanborn LB Wisconsin
    247.Zander Horvath RB Purdue

  42. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Mike, Mets off to a really good start.

  43. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Lastly (at least for right now or today), there is the curious case of one Sam Williams, EDGE, Ole Miss. 6’4″, 261, 4.46 40-time, 36″ VJ, 123″ BJ, and a wingspan of 80.25″.

    He was another JUCO transfer (1st team) before he came to Ole Miss. He “was suspended from the team in July 2020 after he was charged with sexual battery. He was reinstated to the team in September of that year after the charge was dropped”.

    Charge dropped or not, that’s a SERIOUS charge that NFL teams will shy away from regarding recent DV incidents within the NFL itself. As such, his draft stock is all over the place. IMO, his football production alone warrants a potential day 1 grade… but many pundits/draftniks won’t be surprised if he falls to day 3… or even become a UDFA, due to the sexual battery charge (to reiterate, it was dropped).

    He set the Ole Miss record with 12.5 sacks last season (yes, Ole Miss plays in the SEC). IF he were to be drafted by us (say @ #102 or #125) we’d BETTER have done our homework on him regarding his off-field issues.

    I remember this guy making national headlines with that sexual battery charge and I was FURIOUS with him (the media loves to gin up stories, by the way). The question becomes, even after the charge was dropped: will people in general always associate Sam Williams with sexual battery? Was he innocent and falsely charged? I dunno and don’t claim to know, but the charge was factually dropped… and he’s a stud football player.

    Highlights…

  44. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    Russell Wilson went in the third round. Was he not the BPA at the time? Hmmmmm

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      No he developed into that, he wasn’t that guy in the draft

      • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

        Agreed with Steve. Both Russell Wilson and Case Keenum were looked upon as undersized, developmental players in the same Draft… potentially going very late or even going undrafted.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        You’re not putting Keenum in the same category as Wilson are you? LOL

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      That’s not how it works. You can’t use hindsight before the draft. 😉

    • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

      No Andrew luck was

      Bpa does not mean who they became, it means how they were evaluated by most scouts at the time of the draft

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        Yeah there is a lot of silly commentary about BPA. It’s pretty simple. It’s based on grading prospects out of college. We all know it doesn’t predict careers. But you have to start somewhere.

  45. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    Tim Knight says:
    April 21, 2022 at 4:34 pm
    You’re not putting Keenum in the same category as Wilson are you? LOL
    —————
    LOL! Factually, I’m NOT! I’m not using the hindsight vision of others, but Wilson and Keenum were — in fact — looked upon in the same light, leading up to the ’12 Draft. Both were characterized as over-achievers, yet very under-sized to play QB in the NFL.

    BOTH (more so Wilson by a mile) have proven the pundits exactly WRONG!

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      Yes just wondered why you added Keenum to the discussion. Oh never mind. LOL

      • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

        Like I said, pre-Draft in 2012. I’m not using the power of hindsight 10 years later.

        I was merely agreeing with Steve… that Russell Wilson (nor Case Keenum, damn near clones in 2012 by most) was NOT the ‘consensus’ BPA in the 3rd round when the Seahawks drafted him.

        Most of y’all already know my feelings when it comes to this “BPA” convo.

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        BPA is simply the grade system teams have on prospects. If you go into a draft needing a guard and the guard that is not the highest graded prospect on your board by quite a bit and you take him anyway, you reached for need based on your own grades. You should have taken higher graded prospects at other positions. That’s how you build a good roster.

  46. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Have you guys talked at all about OT Bernhard Raimann? He’s a project, but I like his potential. I think he has value as a mid round guy but maybe he’s being mocked much higher. I have no idea. I noticed him at the senior bowl and did a little research on him. I’d project him as a RT. He’d be a guy I’d draft in, hopefully, the 4th round and see if he could develop into a starter.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      I’ve seen a lot of coverage of him with him being from Austria and playing football late. It seems scouts do think he has upside. Not sure what round though.

    • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

      I’ll have to research Raimann, guy. Thank you for the heads up!

      • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

        NFLN covered him a lot during the combine and on Zooms on their draft shows. He looks the part. The Great Blue North Report has him late 1st round. Lance Zierlein projects him to be a plus starter in time. He also has him as a LT.

      • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

        Interesting!

  47. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    FACT: most of us fans will never be privy to the interviews conducted behind closed doors. THAT is where decisions are made on whether this or that prospect is SERIOUS about a career in professional football. “BPA” is a relative term that isn’t concise or exclusive to all 32 teams, especially being most teams have different systems.

    Look at it this way: another team’s trash is another team’s treasure.

    “90 percent of the game is half mental” ~ John Madden

  48. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Tim,
    First round? Really? Wow, I’m shocked. I know he played LT at Central Michigan, but I’d shift him to RT. Oh well, I guess I can stop looking into him! Lol

  49. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:
  50. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    BPA also doesn’t mean the best player in the whole draft
    except for right at the moment before R1P1.
    … …
    After that, the guy who is the BPA changes each pick, unless someone doesn’t pick the guy you had as BPA on your board, then he is still BPA for your team, even if he wasn’t selected, so he slides, but he is still your BPA until he is picked, and then your next guy that is highest rated and still available becomes BPA.
    When it comes time for your pick, you should already know who is left that is your BPA. And you should automatically pick that guy (your BPA) unless you have somebody already on your team that is better. Then you skip your BPA and pick the best player left at a position of need.
    … …
    Teams can most certainly have different guys rated differently.
    … …
    If Team A has Joe Jones rated 38th, and they are picking and that is the guy left with the highest pick on their board, then that guy is BPA at that moment, even if other teams did not have him rated at 38.
    I you don’t draft that guy, it’s because you need another position filled more than you need that BPA player, even if he is rated higher on your own board than the guy you pick.

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      You were there and then you reached. LOL

      If you draft a guy for need with a 5.8 grade over a 6.4 guy that will probably come back to haunt you. You took a guard who couldn’t hold down a starting job over 2-3 years while let’s say the LB you passed on is a top level starter on another team. Stick with your board. You’ll end up a better team doing that.

  51. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    I’m not even sure my mouth could say it out loud, but this is the sort of draft where I might actually draft a guy for a specialty or one specific thing. The overall talent will be very similar where we’re picking. Drafting a punter, for instance, if you really think he can be a pretty good 10 year starter, a 3rd round pick isn’t exactly a horrible price. I get it….it’s a punter…but punters are people too. Lol
    ***
    Accuracy and placement are key though. Leg strength, to me, is less important. They can be weapons with a really good defense. It kinda rubs me the wrong way, but I’d be okay with it if they felt that good about a guy. I haven’t looked at a single one of them, so I have no idea if any of these guys are worth it.

  52. mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

    You guys regarding “BPA”… LOL

    • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

      I’m not even trying to sound cocky, but c’mon! SYSTEM FITS

      • mf13ss's avatar mf13ss says:

        Player A might not be a system fit for Team A, but Player A might be a system fit for Team B. Shit, Player C might be a system fit for Team A.

        I feel like I have to explain this EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

  53. sb7mvp's avatar sb7mvp says:

    BPA’s are fun to drink. I’m really into craft beer.

  54. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

  55. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    System fits are BPA. Prospects you have graded higher. Why do so many of you have an issue with it? LOL

    We traded for Hill because he is an elite playmaker. He was #1 on our board.

  56. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    Can the effing Wild just lose a game please?

  57. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    M13,
    I get what sb7 is suggesting if you determine BPA solely for a specific team. If a team gives every player they evaluate a number grad, then that specific team could conceivably pick the BPA for them by simply taking the highest rated player….until you get to where there’s more than one guy with the same highest grade. But, the concept still works to a point. If you’re saying BPA is based on some universal rating system that everyone uses…then it’s a different story because team fit and many other factors come into play.
    ***
    As with most of our communal debates around here, it’s not so black and white as all that. Lol

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      It’s not about universal mock drafts because a lot of what mocksters do is listen to the buzz of GM’s and teams. 32 teams have different views. But the BPA is still a grade team to team.

      Taking the BPA is really vs. reach for need. That’s it! 😉

  58. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Kong,
    My Wild are kicking some ass this year! Are you a Blues fan or something???

    • CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

      lol, yes, I am a fan of the team that has given the Wild their last two losses 😉
      We’re neck and neck for that 2nd spot

  59. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Kong,
    Yeah, I can’t say I feel very confident about playing the Blues. Fiala is streaky, but he’s starting to play like a superstar for the Wild. But, the Blues have given the Wild their biggest challenge this year other than maybe Colorado.
    ***
    Home ice might make the difference, so the rest of the games are huge for both teams. I love playoff hockey…can’t wait.

  60. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Tim,
    That’s what I said. IF it’s based solely on a specific team’s rating for every guy on THEIR board, then they COULD go BPA…without considering anything else. I didn’t say they should or do. I said they could base it solely on their BPA score. I don’t think it’s smart, but it’s possible. Lol

  61. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    Randy,
    Agreed, home ice might be the difference if we meet. The Wild are a good team. I’m pretty sure 3 of our games have gone OT, including the last two. We’re a game back right now and unfortunately we have Binnington in net tonight, so even though we haven’t lost to the Sharks this year, tonight’s game isn’t a gimme, because Binnington has been GARBAGE this year since he got that fat contract. If we lose tonight, I think you guys will take that 2nd spot.

    We have a real problem at GT. Binnington has 6 flipping years and Husso is an UFA at the end of this year, but Husso has been a stud in net for us. Not sure what we’re going to do.

  62. Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

    Do you take Levi Brown or Adrian Peterson?

  63. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Kong,
    Husso has been a big reason you guys have beaten us this year. He’s played out of his mind this year. It’s gonna be a tough decision for the Blues.

  64. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Tim,
    If I have Levi rated as a 90 out of 100 and I have Peterson rated at 85, I take Levi if I’m going solely BPA based on my player grades. You can take need or fit out of the equation if you wish….not that you should…but you can. Why is that so hard to understand? It’s a choice…not an absolute. Sometimes we’re like politicians around here, and we ignore nuance and try to argue one extreme against the other. Lol

    • Tim Knight's avatar Tim Knight says:

      Levi Brown was a need reach to get a blind side RT for the lefty QB in Matt Leinart. Adrian Peterson was the better talent. Not in hindsight, in obvious sight. One was an average player and the other is HOF bound. That’s my best example and there are many more. LOL

  65. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

    102.Leo Chenal LB Wisconsin
    125.Luke Fortner OC Kentucky
    224.Zander Horvath RB Purdue
    247.Bamidele Olaseni OT Utah

  66. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    well the Blues and Wild wont sniff the Panther’s athletic up, let alone the Stanley.

    Panthers #1 Panthers#1 on a 12 game winning streak!

  67. sb7mvp's avatar sb7mvp says:

    Just so you guys know, I haven’t been serious about any post I’ve made about BPA. I thought that was glaringly obvious from the over the top posts and the all caps with the exclamation points. lol. Don’t let me stop you from having the same ridiculous debate you have every offseason. Just FYI, you’re all saying the same thing, you’re just choosing to argue semantics and I blame that on Tim. 😉

  68. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Not a fan of Adam Schein, I think his delivery is overwrought, but LOVE what he said about Tua. I hope he has a such a great season his detractors are so embarrassed they move to Canada. Not near Manitoba though. lol

  69. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

    There’s a tube of lube with MF13’s name on it out there!

  70. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    On BPA, 2 or 3 years after the draft you aren’t looking at how your core players were acquired, just that they are core players, drafting for need lessens the likelihood they become a core player

    How Baker and Holland fit into that discussion IDK, but they are core players

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      Also BPA isn’t a concensus of what reporters, Kiper or other teams think, it’s straight up how your big board sits, if guys don’t fit your system they may not make your big board

  71. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Dolphins Don’t Have A Lot Of Draft Picks And That’s Okay

    And how I feel too, half of our slow starts can be attributed to all the rookies and new guys in general getting acclimated, the other 99% I put on Flo

    • The Flying Pig's avatar The Flying Pig says:

      Just imagine if Noah I is on the field this year and produces for our team
      What kind of indictment will that be on the coaching last year?

      I know a lot of people didn’t support his firing, well until he sued us anyway…..lol
      But I thought the coaching was real bad in 2021

      I have a feeling, call it a sense from my bacon bits, that some very slight differences this year in playcalling, balance on offense and development of young players, is going to highlight how bd the coaching was

      • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

        Saying how bad the coaching was is too broad, while I’ll agree with that in general I’d mostly equate that to the OL, as several players on D thrived above their abilities

        For sure the OL coaching was bad, can’t say that about TE and WR, QB is debatable

        Having 3 rookies do what they did doesn’t scream bad coaching, nor does winning 8 of 9

  72. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    I was going to talk some smack about the Florida Panthers, but I’m not even sure who they are. Are they a professional team?

  73. sb7mvp's avatar sb7mvp says:

    I don’t think the F.O. had a time table on Iggy when they drafted him. I think they knew he was raw and had time to development behind X and Byron. The problem was that they took him 30th overall when they should have drafted someone who could’ve made an immediate impact in a position of need. It’s seen as a wasted pick.

  74. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    So you can see the body language that went with this quote.

    • Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

      Without any inside knowledge of day to day stuff between Flores and Tua, you could see by the way he was handled and not trusted by Flores. If I was Tua I would have nothing to say about Flores either. Flores clearly was not behind Tua, that much was obvious. To that end, it’s pretty difficult to play your best when you know the Head Coach doesn’t want you and doesn’t support you. I think we’ll see a lot more confident QB this season with the Head Coach who is definitely supportive of him, and of course the declaration that they are with Tua doesn’t hurt either, rather than Flores’ oft mentioned quote “He’s our QB’, which never sounded like Flores was happy about it.

  75. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

  76. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    SB … !!!
    THANK GOD I DON’T BEAT A TOPIC TOOOOO DEATH LIKE THAT tim guy.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
    Thnx for not mentioning my name !!!
    as one of the SEMANTICS BRIGADE!!??!!??
    I’m ALL IN on BPA!!!!
    (and Tannehill was treated badly while I’m at it!!!)

  77. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Byron Jones joined the Dolphins as an unrestricted free agent from Dallas on March 21, 2020.
    then
    Noah Igbinoghene was a first-round pick (30th overall) by the Dolphins in the April 23, 2020 NFL draft.

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      Yeah fucked that up

      • naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

        n/m … just a tad off, no biggie.
        … …
        I agree with you that the coaching last year was not cosmically bad.
        … …
        As you said,
        “For sure the OL coaching was bad, can’t say that about TE and WR, QB is debatable

        Having 3 rookies do what they did doesn’t scream bad coaching, nor does winning 8 of 9 …”

  78. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Tua is always under pressure, from the D, from the media, from fans, not sure why the reporter asked, if he felt more pressure, because of the talent around him now

    Tua was under pressure in the Dilfer QB camp, he was told he needed to pick it up and he did

    At Bama in the Championship game his freshman yr, he took that bad sack, the play before he threw the game winner under a lot of pressure from Saban (Saban was pissed at the sack)

    • naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

      Yeah I don’t get it.
      Tua does not seem cocky like Johnny Manziel or something.
      What has he said or done that brings so much negative commentary on him?
      The only thing wrong with him that I can see is he is not very tall.
      His injuries were not from being fragile. He took some shots that would’ve hurt any QB.
      That hip thing ended the career of one of the greatest RBs ever.
      Tua bounced back.
      And ribs are gonna break if a 300 pounder gets a free run at your blind side.
      Tua bounced back.

  79. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    I don’t really care if a HC comes out and constantly talks about supporting his QB or that he’s “his guy”. Frankly, if that stuff matters to a QB or affects his play, he’s probably not the guy anyway. To Tua’s credit, I don’t think it affected him. What I had a problem with is how they appeared not to support Tua on the field. 2 OCs, neither of which seemed to know what the hell they were doing or were designing an offense to complementary Tua’s skills. Hiring or promoting an OL coach who had no business being in charge. Basically, appearing to ignore the offense and allow them to flounder without any demonstrable support or help. That’s where I fault Flores. Whether you like the QB they signed or not, you still need to do whatever it takes to support him on the field. Flores looked like he could’ve cared less.

    • New Age's avatar New Age says:

      Well said. It was one of many reasons Flores was a bad HC and doesn’t really deserve a second chance. You play with what you have and support your players. That includes having the ability to put together a decent staff. The only thing Flores had talent for was a NE based defense. His personality and inability to self-reflect resulted in no talented coaches wanting to stick with him.

    • Krishna's avatar Krishna says:

      Agreed!

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      Yes, but it sure is refreshing to know your HC has your back

      Gruden and Carr are next door neighbors, it showed on the field

      Philbin wasn’t exactly a Tannehill fan, it also showed on the field

      Brady and Belicheat weren’t always besties, but they were established

  80. steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

    Flo was an asshole, that coaches didn’t want to work with, his biggest downfall was believing he could get rid of the vet OLman and putting an above his head OL coach in

    Running game was a product of the OL failures, and lack of talent

    Tua doing what he did inspite of this was amazing

  81. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    I believe Fitzmagic masked Flo’s failures on offense while he was here.
    … …
    I think Flo was worse of an O coach than it even seemed, but Fitz adlibbed so well that it almost looked like we actually had an offensive scheme and playbook that worked his first year, even though we didn’t.
    … …
    and then Tua’s quick release and high completion percentage bailed Flo out during the winning streak.

    • steveccnv's avatar steveccnv says:

      Yes, but during the winning streak the D played great, Flo deserves a little something for that, especially what he did against Ravens, the game Holland came alive, because of the gameplan

  82. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    The Dolphins’ media folks put up a camera with a sign tat read “Who is the Funniest Guy on the Team”? at the edge of the practice field. Here’s what they got back.

  83. Randy's avatar Randy says:

    Naples,
    I said it 100 times. Fitz also made the OL look a whole lot better than they were because he could read defenses, and he got the ball out quickly. Folks were saying how good our OL looked Fitz’ last year here, and I kept saying no…it was Fitz constantly saving their asses and covering up their deficiencies. Yeah, we had some veteran OL that year too, but it was mostly Fitz. He got the ball out of his hand. Sometimes the throws went to the wrong guys, but he was still helping his OL by getting the ball out quickly. Tua simply didn’t have the experience to do what Fitz did.

  84. bailbondmike's avatar bailbondmike says:

    Without any inside knowledge of day to day stuff between Flores and Tua, you could see by the way he was handled and not trusted by Flores.
    ————————–
    MikeE., When I go back and look at the clip when Tua first came back after injury. Brissett was getting his ass handed to him. Brissett got dinged up but was ready to go back in. Flores said no and put Tua in. Though, if you look at Flores when he did that, he looked really pissed.

    Like he was told to put Tua in???

    I don’t really know but that is a feeling I get when I watch that back.

  85. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Randy – You played sports at a higher level than I ever did so I’ll give you the advantage of having a Head Coach/player relation. I’ve played organized sports since I was a kid and I know when my coach didn’t believe in me it made me feel unwanted and down on myself. On the other hand, when the coach showed his confidence in me, I always felt more comfortable and mostly much more confident in myself. I also know that in the workplace, it’s nice to get an attaboy every now and again for morale. I don’t believe Flores did Tua any favors in either of the above scenarios. How much it affected him or didn’t, we’ll never know, but he seems like he’s in a better place right now, but they haven’t played yet either, so there’s that . . .

  86. Wyoming85's avatar Wyoming85 says:

  87. CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

    I’m not sure why so many are down on last year’s offense.

    I thought it was pretty cool that on 1st down Dolphins fans throughout the country and the world could all chant in unison “Draw play from shotgun!”

    What other fanbase could hivemind like that?

  88. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Randy – Fitz used his legs A LOT in 2020. He saw the pocket collapsing so often he got out of it by running for positive yardage, and he was rolling out a lot too. He was much better at climbing the pocket too, which gave him more time to throw. He played fearlessly. The O-line wasn’t that great really. Maybe better than last year though, but it’s hard to say.

  89. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    CavalierKong says:
    April 22, 2022 at 10:19 am
    I was going to talk some smack about the Florida Panthers, but I’m not even sure who they are. Are they a professional team?

    The best pro team in the league. EAT IT!

    • CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

      lol, talk to me when they get out of the 1st rd for the 1st time in more than a decade

      • Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

        I’d like people to be saying this to me at the end of the 2022 NFL regular season about the Dolphins.

      • CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

        Except it would be “…for the1st time in more than 2 decades.”

      • CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

        Sheesh, that just put it into perspective for me. If we’re twice as bad as the lowly Florida Panthers…

  90. naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

    Rookie QBs are notorious for bad reads. DCs and vet DBs on the field are famous for baiting rooks to get picks and otherwise disguising coverage to cause doubt and thus slow reads by rookie QBs.
    … …
    I thought Tua made progress from year 1 to year 2 in that regard, which is all you can ask.
    I think he will make more such progress this year and the next.
    If he does, he will attain Brees-level production.

  91. stangerx's avatar stangerx says:

    frim Joe Schad — “Here is where Miami has ranked in the NFL in offensive yards over the past seven seasons: 25, 22, 27, 31, 25, 24, 26,” Shouldn’t be hard to have the best O in 8 years.

  92. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    LOL @ Kong, sort of

  93. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Think I dig our long snapper

    • naplesfan2010's avatar naplesfan2010 says:

      There was just a huge merger between CNN’s parent Warner and Discovery.
      CNN+ is just a one month old streaming service which is totally redundant to the mature streaming components already in the other company in the merger.
      This kind of corporate reorganizing happens nearly every time two large companies combine.
      There will be redundancies (and therefore shutdowns) throughout the two merging corporations.

    • Krishna's avatar Krishna says:

      It’s a little more complicated than that….lol.

      Simple minds….lol

  94. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    BBM – you can get news that’s skewed just like CNN without paying for it, there’s plenty of cable network news outlets just like it. Why pay?

  95. Krishna's avatar Krishna says:

    Thank you naples…just saw this

  96. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Simple minds had a couple of big hits

  97. Krishna's avatar Krishna says:

    When you gloating over fake news by putting out fake news…best I could come up with…simple minds…lmao

  98. Mike E.'s avatar Mike E. says:

    Krishna, I’m happy in my simple little world. All good bro 😁

  99. Rockphin's avatar Rockphin says:

    I think our defensemen have scored more points than your forwards! LOL

    • CavalierKong's avatar CavalierKong says:

      We’re one of the strongest and deepest offenses in the league. We have 7 guys at 20 goals or more.

      I know you’re not used to watching your team in the playoffs only having been there 7 times in nearly 30 years, so I get why you’re excited. You deserve to be.

      Enjoy it, I’ll be rooting for you guys to get that monkey off your back and advance past the 1st round 🙂

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